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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadWAG aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreWAG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:09 · Joshua Brown punt for 26 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 6:43: Rory Bell 47 yd FG GOOD — WAG win probability +0.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:20: Kyle Dobbins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 11:48: Rory Bell 31 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +1.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:03: Kyle Dobbins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:12: D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Kadas Reams for 44 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WAG made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 8:54TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%average punt
- Q1 3:03WAG 4th & 14 at WAG 43, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q2 15:00TEM 4th & 1 at WAG 5, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.6%67% to convertField goal94.2%−0.492% to makePunt93.3%−1.3average punt
- Q1 13:27WAG 4th & 1 at WAG 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 13:27WAG 4th & 1 at WAG 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:44WAG 4th & 16 at WAG 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.6%−0.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q2 6:43TEM 4th & 12 at WAG 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snapGo for it92.4%−0.223% to convertField goalTheir call92.7%56% to makePunt92.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:42WAG 4th & 2 at WAG 33, down 10Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it5.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:10TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 25, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snapGo for it93.7%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.3%average punt
- Q2 0:38WAG 4th & 6 at WAG 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.438% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q3 11:48TEM 4th & 7 at WAG 14, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snapGo for it93.8%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call94.0%84% to makePunt91.7%−2.3average punt
- Q3 9:54WAG 4th & 4 at WAG 31, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q3 6:09WAG 4th & 11 at WAG 24, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q3 1:05WAG 4th & 11 at TEM 47, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:05TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 5, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 11:13WAG 4th & 16 at TEM 39, down 27Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.116% to convertField goal0.1%36% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:23WAG 4th & 10 at WAG 30, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:59TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 33, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 0:36WAG 4th & 5 at WAG 23, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q2 11:57TEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:20TEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:03TEM Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:12TEM Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:25TEM Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3098% → 97%
WAGDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 5:513% → 4%
Q1 8:54
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+16
97.4%
Guenson Alexis pass complete to Jeremiah Lorick for 16 yds to the Wagn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD14 plays · 81 yds · 6:0696% → 96%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
96.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 8 yds to the Temp 27Similar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
96.0%
MATHIS, D'Wan pass to the left incomplete intended for ANDERSON JR., Amad thrown to the WAG14. PENALTY WAG Pass Interference on DAVIS, Christian enforced 15 yards to the WAG47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
96.2%
DOBBINS, Kyle rush up the middle for no gain to the WAG47 (LAMAR, Lennox). PENALTY Before the snap, TEM False Start on ANDERSON JR., Amad enforced 5 yards from the WAG47 to the TEM48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+10
96.1%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 10 yds to the Wagn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 4TD9 plays · 80 yds · 13:272% → 4%
Q1 13:27
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
98.2%
Guenson Alexis pass complete to Jeremiah Lorick for 6 yds to the Wagn 29Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+11
98.2%
Guenson Alexis pass complete to Jeremiah Lorick for 11 yds to the Wagn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.2%
Guenson Alexis pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 3 yds to the Wagn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 2:085% → 6%
Q2 11:52
2ND & 12
OWN 17
-7
95.0%
Rickey Spruill run for a loss of 7 yards to the Wagn 10 fumbled, recovered by Wagn Rickey SpruillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6FG10 plays · 27 yds · 3:0195% → 94%
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
94.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 12 yds to the Wagn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+17
95.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 17 yds to the Wagn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+8
94.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Malik Cooper for 8 yds to the Wagn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 7INT3 plays · 1 yds · 1:146% → 6%
TEMDrive 8TD3 plays · 20 yds · 1:0994% → 96%
Q2 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
94.4%
WAGNER Penalty, Personal Foul (Tajhi Tate) to the Wagn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:385% → 5%
Q2 2:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
95.1%
Joshua Brown punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3295% → 95%
WAGDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:215% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 12MISSED FG4 plays · -4 yds · 0:386% → 6%
TEMDrive 13FG8 plays · 61 yds · 3:1295% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 6 yds to the Temp 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
94.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to De'Von Fox for 5 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+46
95.1%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 46 yds to the Wagn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:544% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15TD8 plays · 77 yds · 2:5196% → 99%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
96.1%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 4 yds to the Temp 27Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+27
96.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 27 yds to the Wagn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+12
96.4%
MATHIS, D'Wan pass up the middle incomplete intended for PITTMAN, Darius thrown to the WAG29. PENALTY WAG Pass Interference on ANSELL, Matt enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the WAG29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
96.4%
WAGNER Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Lennox Lamar) to the Wagn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:541% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17TD3 plays · 50 yds · 0:5799% → 100%
WAGDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 4:070% → 0%
Q3 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
99.8%
TEMPLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Magee) to the Wagn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+6
99.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 6 yds to the Temp 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:520% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21TD10 plays · 95 yds · 4:48100% → 100%
Q4 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+18
99.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 18 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Darius Pittman for 5 yds to the Temp 45Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+13
99.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Darius Pittman for 13 yds to the Wagn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to De'Von Fox for 6 yds to the Wagn 36Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+15
99.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 15 yds to the Wagn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Kadas Reams for 21 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
99.9%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wagn 26 fumbled, recovered by Wagn LeShane TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q4 2:59
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Adam Barry punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jayvin Little at the Wagn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:230% → 0%
Q4 0:36
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Joshua Brown punt for 37 yds , Amad Anderson Jr. returns for no gain to the Temp 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:03
Kyle Dobbins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 4:20
Kyle Dobbins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK)
+1.4
FG · Q3 11:48
Rory Bell 31 yd FG GOOD
+1