UT Martin
- SRS
- −28.3 (#192)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2025
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what UT Martin allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for UT Martin.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than UT Martin's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at UTEPQ3 7:21 4th & 2 at UTEP 2, down 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
- at MOSTQ2 2:14 4th & 1 at UTM 15, down 28Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
- at OKSTQ3 9:47 4th & 10 at OKST 38, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at UTEPQ4 0:30 4th & 9 at UTEP 42, down 25Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at UTEPQ4 9:29 4th & 2 at UTM 14, down 25Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at MOSTQ4 15:00 4th & 7 at MOST 24, down 42Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at OKSTQ1 7:40 4th & 8 at OKST 42, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (28)
- Q1 7:404th & 8 at OKST 42, down 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 0:024th & 14 at UTM 41, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 10:404th & 6 at UTM 27, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 6:594th & 6 at UTM 19, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:104th & 5 at UTM 42, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 9:474th & 10 at OKST 38, down 10 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 9:374th & 11 at UTM 21, down 16 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 2:574th & 6 at UTM 29, down 20 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 9:254th & 11 at UTM 35, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 2:564th & 3 at UTEP 28, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 10:374th & 7 at UTM 22, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 5:354th & 2 at UTEP 2, down 15 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 2:554th & 20 at UTM 26, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:074th & 2 at UTM 13, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 9:394th & 3 at UTEP 36, down 21 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 7:214th & 2 at UTEP 2, down 21 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q3 4:264th & 1 at UTM 35, down 25 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 12:074th & 1 at UTEP 20, down 32 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 9:294th & 2 at UTM 14, down 25 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 6:274th & 10 at UTM 38, down 25 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 0:304th & 9 at UTEP 42, down 25 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 10:214th & 7 at UTM 28, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 7:364th & 9 at MOST 47, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:144th & 1 at UTM 15, down 28 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 11:054th & 9 at UTM 24, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 5:264th & 9 at UTM 15, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 7 at MOST 24, down 42 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 6:554th & 8 at MOST 14, down 42 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2025
Expected wins adds up UT Martin's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2025
Every game starts at UT Martin's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.56
- Clock+0.01
- Timeouts+0.04
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.13
Game by game
- OKSTL 7-27 at OKST4% → 1%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −13, Timeouts +4
- UTEPL 17-42 at UTEP21% → 0%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −25
- MOSTL 10-42 at MOST15% → 0%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −18
Points of win probability, from UT Martin's side.
Closest call
UTM 24-13 KENN (2024) - UT Martin dropped to a 41.5% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2025
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is UT Martin's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2025
The largest single-play change in UT Martin's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
UT Martin's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
UT Martin's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
UT Martin's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
UT Martin's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.