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UTM

UT Martin 10 at Missouri State 42

MOST
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Plaster Sports Complex
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Win probability · MOST
modelMOST aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playMOST scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Jase Bauer pass complete to Hyatt Timosciek for 8 yds to the MOST 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Home team on offense+34.2Pregame prior+10.1Score differential+27.7Blowout margin+16.2Garbage-time factor+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:27: Jacob Clark run for 4 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK) — MOST win probability +2.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:27: Jacob Clark pass complete to James BlackStrain for 6 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK) — MOST win probability +3.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:25: Jacob Clark pass complete to Connor Lair for 1 yd for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK) — MOST win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:25: Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 17 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK) — MOST win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:45: Shomari Lawrence run for 50 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK) — MOST win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MOST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UTM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:21UTM 4th & 7 at UTM 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:25MOST 4th & 1 at UTM 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    89.9%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−4.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:36UTM 4th & 9 at MOST 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:17MOST 4th & 21 at MOST 44, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:14UTM 4th & 1 at UTM 15, down 28
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:05UTM 4th & 9 at UTM 24, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:55MOST 4th & 3 at MOST 48, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:26UTM 4th & 9 at UTM 15, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:08MOST 4th & 14 at MOST 49, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00UTM 4th & 7 at MOST 24, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:55UTM 4th & 8 at MOST 14, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MOST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:50MOST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:27MOST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:27MOST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:25MOST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:25MOST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:45MOST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:52UTM Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTMDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1215% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.2%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the UTM 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
85.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Scottie Alexander for 3 yds to the UTM 33Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
84.9%
John Gentry run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTM 32 John Gentry fumbled, recovered by MOST Kanye YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:5885% → 85%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
85.0%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Dash LukeSimilar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+14
85.0%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 14 yds to the UTM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
85.0%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 2 yds to the UTM 16Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+9
85.0%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 9 yds to the UTM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.2%
Jacob Clark run for 7 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2915% → 15%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the UTM 28Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
84.9%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the UTM 28Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
85.0%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Drake MartinezSimilar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
84.9%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 4TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 6:5485% → 87%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
84.9%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ronnel JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
84.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for 4 yds to the MOST 21Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+10
84.8%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 10 yds to the MOST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
84.9%
Jacob Clark pass complete to James BlackStrain for 23 yds to the UTM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
85.1%
Jacob Clark sacked by Toby Camp for a loss of 3 yards to the UTM 49Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
85.0%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Tristian GardnerSimilar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+15
84.9%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 15 yds to the UTM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
85.1%
Jacob Clark sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the UTM 36Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+15
85.1%
UT Martin Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Iese Puni) to the UTM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
85.1%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Greene,Matthew) 5 yards from UTM18 to UTM23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+10
85.1%
Jacob Clark run for 10 yds to the UTM 13Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+9
85.1%
Shomari Lawrence run for 9 yds to the UTM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
85.1%
Shomari Lawrence run for no gain to the UTM 4Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.4%
Jacob Clark run for 4 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 5INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0114% → 14%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.4%
Bryce Bailey run for 16 yds to the UTM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
86.3%
Chris Franklin run for 4 yds to the UTM 45Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
86.1%
Thomas Ansley run for 2 yds to the UTM 47Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+15
86.4%
Missouri State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UTM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:5988% → 91%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
88.0%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ramone Green Jr.Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
88.0%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ronnel JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+35
87.4%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 35 yds to the UTM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to James BlackStrain for 6 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:099% → 9%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
91.2%
Bryce Bailey pass complete to Phaizon Wilson for 15 yds to the UTM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
91.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 17 yds Bryce Bailey fumbled, recovered by MOST Jalen BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 8TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:2692% → 96%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+39
91.6%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 24 yds to the UTM 38 for a 1ST down UT Martin Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Stevenson) to the UTM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
91.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for 1 yd to the UTM 22Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+5
91.8%
Jacob Clark run for 5 yds to the UTM 17Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+9
91.6%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 9 yds to the UTM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.7%
Shomari Lawrence run for no gain to the UTM 8Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.7%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to James BlackStrainSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
91.5%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 7 yds to the UTM 1Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.6%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Connor Lair for 1 yd for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:494% → 3%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.0%
Thomas Ansley run for 1 yd to the UTM 26Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
96.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Armoni Goodwin for 2 yds to the UTM 28Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
96.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Scottie Alexander for 8 yds to the UTM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
96.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Scottie Alexander for 16 yds to the MOST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
95.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jaren Bowling for 2 yds to the MOST 46Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-1
95.6%
Jase Bauer run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 47Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
96.0%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Bryce BaileySimilar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
97.5%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:1997% → 98%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
96.7%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 35 yds to the UTM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
96.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for 2 yds to the UTM 43Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-5
96.8%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Nnabugwu,Ebubedike) 5 yards from UTM43 to UTM48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 13
OPP 48
-1
96.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTM 49Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-10
96.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Clark,Jacob rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UTM40 (Newsome,Doug; Banda,Tah) PENALTY MSU Holding (Curtis,Justin) 10 yards from UTM49 to MSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 24
OWN 41
+3
96.7%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 3 yds to the MOST 44Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 21
OWN 44
0
97.5%
Stewart McDonald punt for 48 yds , Deuce Oliver returns for no gain to the UTM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:032% → 1%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
98.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Armoni Goodwin for 1 yd to the UTM 7Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+3
98.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Armoni Goodwin for 3 yds to the UTM 10Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+5
98.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Drake Martinez for 5 yds to the UTM 15Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
98.6%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dash Luke at the MOST 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:4998% → 99%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
98.1%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 20 yds to the UTM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.0%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ronnel JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+10
98.0%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 10 yds to the UTM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
98.1%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 1 yd to the UTM 26Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+9
98.1%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 9 yds to the UTM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.7%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 17 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Franklin for 7 yds to the UTM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
98.8%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 11 yds to the MOST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.8%
Jacob Clark pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+18
98.8%
Jacob Clark pass complete to James BlackStrain for 18 yds to the MOST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
98.8%
Jacob Clark run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 9
50
+50
99.3%
Shomari Lawrence run for 50 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Phaizon WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.3%
Armoni Goodwin run for 5 yds to the UTM 28Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-4
99.3%
Jase Bauer sacked by Cooper Roy for a loss of 4 yards to the UTM 24Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 38 yds , Dash Luke returns for no gain to the MOST 24 Missouri State Penalty, Lair,Connor at MSU38, End Of Play PENALTY Holding (10 Yards) to the MOST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 4:1099% → 100%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.4%
Cole Feuerbacher pass incomplete to Dash LukeSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.4%
Cole Feuerbacher pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 9 yds to the MOST 37Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
99.4%
King Davis run for 4 yds to the MOST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.4%
King Davis run for 5 yds to the MOST 46Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-5
99.4%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Hutchinson,Mark) 5 yards from MSU46 to MSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.4%
King Davis run for no gain to the MOST 41Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.4%
Cole Feuerbacher pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 7 yds to the MOST 48Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
99.6%
Stewart McDonald punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Deuce Oliver at the UTM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.7%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the UTM 16Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-1
99.7%
Chris Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTM 15Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Hyatt TimosciekSimilar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+1
99.7%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 42 yds , Dash Luke returns for 1 yd to the MOST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
99.7%
Iverson Young run for 20 yds to the UTM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
99.7%
Iverson Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 13
50
-1
99.7%
Cole Feuerbacher run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 49 Cole Feuerbacher fumbled, recovered by MOST Cole FeuerbacherSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Cole Feuerbacher pass incomplete to Antonio RobinsonSimilar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Stewart McDonald punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Deuce Oliver at the UTM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 19FG
23 plays · 78 yds · 11:130% → 0%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.8%
Thomas Ansley run for 3 yds to the UTM 11Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+4
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Franklin for 4 yds to the UTM 15Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+5
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Shawn Hardy II for 5 yds to the UTM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Shawn Hardy II for 4 yds to the UTM 24Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Drake Martinez for 3 yds to the UTM 27Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
99.8%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the UTM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jaren Bowling for 6 yds to the UTM 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Shawn Hardy IISimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+11
99.8%
Chris Franklin run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-5
99.8%
PENALTY UTM False Start 5 yards from UTM50 to UTM45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+16
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Deuce Oliver for 16 yds to the MOST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris FranklinSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Chris Franklin run for 4 yds to the MOST 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+8
99.8%
Thomas Ansley run for 8 yds to the MOST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
99.8%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the MOST 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+6
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Shawn Hardy II for 6 yds to the MOST 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+4
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Deuce Oliver for 4 yds to the MOST 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+8
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Hyatt Timosciek for 8 yds to the MOST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
99.8%
Jase Bauer run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+4
99.8%
Deuce Oliver run for 4 yds to the MOST 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Shawn Hardy IISimilar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
99.9%
Cade Hechter 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
Reggie Branch II run for 10 yds to the MOST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
99.9%
Missouri State Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (-10 Yards) to the MOST 35Similar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 17
OWN 35
-3
99.9%
Reggie Branch II run for a loss of 3 yards to the MOST 32 Reggie Branch II fumbled, recovered by UTM Na'Drian DizadareSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 21TD
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:350% → 0%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Thomas Ansley run for 3 yds to the MOST 29Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+8
99.9%
Julian Calvez pass complete to Devin Queen for 8 yds to the MOST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+17
99.9%
Julian Calvez pass complete to Thomas Ansley for 17 yds to the MOST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Julian Calvez pass complete to Dazalin Worsham for 2 yds to the MOST 4Similar
Q4 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Missouri State Penalty, Targeting (2 Yards) to the MOST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Julian Calvez pass incomplete to Deuce OliverSimilar
Q4 5:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Shotgun Calvez,Julian pass incomplete short left to Queen,Devin thrown to MSU00 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Barrett,Navonn) 2 yards from MSU04 to MSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Julian Calvez run for 1 yd to the MOST 1Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Thomas Ansley run for 1 yd for a TD (Cade Hechter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
99.9%
D. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-1
99.9%
D. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 21
-1
100.0%
D. Bailey takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:27
Jacob Clark pass complete to James BlackStrain for 6 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q2 11:25
Jacob Clark pass complete to Connor Lair for 1 yd for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q1 3:27
Jacob Clark run for 4 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com