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UTM

UT Martin 7 at Oklahoma State 27

OKST
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:02 · Jaren Van Winkle punt for 26 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Pregame prior+39.8Home team on offense+2.9Offense timeouts−8.3Defense timeouts−7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score differential+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:15: Bryce Bailey pass complete to John Gentry for 39 yds for a TD (Cade Hechter KICK) (Cade Hechter KICK) — UTM win probability +2.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. FG · Q2 2:43: Logan Ward 42 Yd Field Goal — OKST win probability +7.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:58: John Gentry run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTM 39 — UTM win probability +9.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. FG · Q3 5:12: L. Ward 39 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +11.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:12: Wes Pahl kickoff for 64 yds — OKST win probability +8.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UTM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:40UTM 4th & 8 at OKST 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:07OKST 4th & 1 at UTM 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:47OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:02UTM 4th & 14 at UTM 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:10OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:40UTM 4th & 6 at UTM 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:44OKST 4th & 2 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:59UTM 4th & 6 at UTM 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:43OKST 4th & 16 at UTM 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:10UTM 4th & 5 at UTM 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:47UTM 4th & 10 at OKST 38, down 10
    Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:12OKST 4th & 9 at UTM 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:49OKST 4th & 20 at OKST 29, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:37UTM 4th & 11 at UTM 21, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:57UTM 4th & 6 at UTM 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:13OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:20OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:57OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:15UTM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:3196% → 95%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
96.2%
Kalib Hicks run for 4 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
96.1%
Kalib Hicks run for 1 yd to the OKST 34Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+10
95.9%
Hauss Hejny pass incomplete to Christian Fitzpatrick for a 1ST down UT Martin Penalty, Defensive holding (LaMarion Pierce) to the OKST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+34
95.9%
Hauss Hejny pass complete to Terrill Davis for 34 yds to the UTM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
95.8%
Hauss Hejny pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 1 yd to the UTM 21Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+3
95.5%
Kalib Hicks run for 3 yds to the UTM 18Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+10
95.2%
Hauss Hejny pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 10 yds to the UTM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.1%
Hauss Hejny pass incomplete to Terrill DavisSimilar
Q1 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
95.1%
Hauss Hejny run for 2 yds to the UTM 6Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.8%
Hauss Hejny 6 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 2Uncategorized
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:405% → 7%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
94.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to John Gentry for 6 yds to the UTM 31 for a 1ST down Oklahoma State Penalty, personal foul (Bryan McCoy Jr.) to the UTM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
94.7%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the UTM 48Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
94.7%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 6
50
+6
94.6%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the OKST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
94.0%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the OKST 41Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-1
93.8%
Jase Bauer sacked by Wendell Gregory for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 42Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
93.4%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Thomas AnsleySimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
93.5%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 3:3593% → 94%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
92.5%
Hauss Hejny run for 14 yds to the OKST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+41
92.6%
Hauss Hejny pass complete to Shamar Rigby for 41 yds to the UTM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
92.4%
Hauss Hejny pass incomplete to Shamar Rigby, broken up by Chris Rhodes for a 1ST down UT Martin Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Chris Rhodes) to the UTM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
92.5%
Kalib Hicks run for 4 yds to the UTM 19Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
92.3%
Hauss Hejny pass incomplete to Cam AbshireSimilar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+5
92.1%
Hauss Hejny run for 5 yds to the UTM 14Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+3
91.7%
Kalib Hicks run for 3 yds to the UTM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
91.6%
Freddie Brock IV run for 1 yd to the UTM 10Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
94.1%
Gavin Freeman 10 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 4TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:417% → 10%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
93.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Drake Martinez for 9 yds to the UTM 44Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+8
92.7%
John Gentry run for 8 yds to the OKST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
92.4%
Jase Bauer run for 9 yds to the OKST 39Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+39
89.6%
Bryce Bailey pass complete to John Gentry for 39 yds for a TD (Cade Hechter KICK) (Cade Hechter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2288% → 87%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
88.1%
Hauss Hejny pass incomplete to Terrill DavisSimilar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
87.9%
Hauss Hejny pass incomplete to Gavin Freeman, broken up by Zamaryion Farmer-McCraySimilar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
87.7%
Hauss Hejny pass incomplete to Terrill DavisSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
87.3%
Wes Pahl punt for 56 yds , Deuce Oliver returns for no gain to the UTM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:3711% → 12%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
89.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Bryce Bailey for a 1ST down Oklahoma State Penalty, personal foul (Jaleel Johnson) to the UTM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Scottie Alexander, broken up by Cam SmithSimilar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
88.9%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the UTM 47Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-6
88.2%
Jase Bauer sacked by Wendell Gregory for a loss of 6 yards to the UTM 41Similar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
88.1%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4986% → 84%
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
85.9%
Kalib Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 32Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
85.3%
Kalib Hicks run for no gain to the OKST 32Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+8
84.3%
Zane Flores pass complete to Sam Jackson V for 8 yds to the OKST 40Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
83.7%
Wes Pahl punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2614% → 16%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
86.5%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Drake Martinez, broken up by Sitiveni Havili KaufusiSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+2
86.5%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the UTM 10Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+13
85.9%
Jase Bauer run for 13 yds to the UTM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
85.0%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UTM 24Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+3
84.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Hyatt Timosciek for 3 yds to the UTM 27Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
84.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Bryce BaileySimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+12
84.1%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKST 42 , Gavin Freeman returns for 12 yds to the OKST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5081% → 77%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
80.9%
Zane Flores sacked by Shamari Weir for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 41Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-1
79.9%
Freddie Brock IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 40Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+5
79.3%
Zane Flores run for no gain to the OKST 40 UT Martin Penalty, substitution infraction (Moses Adelowo) to the OKST 45Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
78.4%
Zane Flores pass complete to Freddie Brock IV for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 2
50
0
77.3%
Wes Pahl punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4018% → 18%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
82.0%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UTM 16Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
82.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Phaizon Wilson for 4 yds to the UTM 20Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 20
-1
82.2%
Jase Bauer sacked by Wendell Gregory for a loss of 1 yard to the UTM 19 UT Martin Penalty, illegal shift (Moses Adelowo) to the UTM 19Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+5
82.5%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 44 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 5 yds to the OKST 24 Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive holding (Raymond Gay II) to the OKST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:0276% → 83%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
76.0%
Zane Flores pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 7 yds to the OKST 39Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+3
76.3%
Sesi Vailahi run for 3 yds to the OKST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
75.4%
Sesi Vailahi run for 5 yds to the OKST 47Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
74.7%
Zane Flores pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 7 yds to the UTM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
74.4%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Quinton StewartSimilar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
74.2%
Sesi Vailahi run for 10 yds to the UTM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
73.8%
Zane Flores pass complete to Cam Abshire for no gain to the UTM 36Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
72.8%
Zane Flores pass complete to Cam Abshire for 8 yds to the UTM 28Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+9
72.7%
Zane Flores pass complete to Shamar Rigby for 9 yds to the UTM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
73.3%
Oklahoma State Penalty, false start (Bob Schick) to the UTM 24Similar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 15
OPP 24
-1
76.2%
Sam Jackson V run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTM 25Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 16
OPP 25
0
75.2%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Da'Wain LoftonSimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 16
OPP 25
0
75.6%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Sesi VailahiSimilar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 16
OPP 25
+42
82.6%
Logan Ward 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3117% → 27%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.1%
John Gentry run for 12 yds to the UTM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
82.2%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the UTM 41Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-2
72.6%
John Gentry run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTM 39Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+3
72.4%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the UTM 42Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
73.4%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:2874% → 72%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
73.8%
Kalib Hicks run for 7 yds to the OKST 20Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+2
73.0%
Kalib Hicks run for 2 yds to the OKST 22Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
71.9%
Kalib Hicks run for 3 yds to the OKST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 14PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 5:1118% → 20%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.3%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the UTM 28Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
81.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 6 yds to the UTM 34Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
82.1%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the UTM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
81.6%
John Gentry run for 6 yds to the UTM 43Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-5
81.3%
UT Martin Penalty, false start (Preston Yarber) to the UTM 38Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+11
82.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 11 yds to the UTM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
80.3%
Thomas Ansley run for 13 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
79.4%
Thomas Ansley run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 39Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+1
79.6%
Jr. Chris Allen run for 1 yd to the OKST 38Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+5
79.0%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 5
OPP 33
-5
81.1%
UT Martin Penalty, false start (Preston Yarber) to the OKST 38Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
80.2%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 4:2076% → 82%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
76.4%
Kalib Hicks run for 8 yds to the OKST 28Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
76.1%
Kalib Hicks run for 6 yds to the OKST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
71.7%
Kalib Hicks run for 3 yds to the OKST 37Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-1
71.3%
Kalib Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 36Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+41
69.3%
Zane Flores pass complete to Terrill Davis for 41 yds to the UTM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
73.4%
Kalib Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTM 25Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 12
OPP 25
-4
72.4%
Kalib Hicks run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTM 29Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 16
OPP 29
+7
70.1%
Kalib Hicks run for 7 yds to the UTM 22Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
82.0%
L. Ward 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 16INT
13 plays · 49 yds · 6:029% → 8%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.5%
John Gentry run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTM 23Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
92.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Deuce Oliver for 4 yds to the UTM 27Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
92.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Deuce Oliver for 17 yds to the UTM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
92.2%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Bryce BaileySimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
92.2%
Jase Bauer run for 8 yds to the OKST 48Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+6
91.0%
Scottie Alexander run for 6 yds to the OKST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
92.7%
Chris Franklin run for 3 yds to the OKST 39Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
92.1%
Chris Franklin run for 6 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
91.4%
Chris Franklin run for 1 yd to the OKST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
91.5%
Jr. Chris Allen run for 2 yds to the OKST 30Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
91.5%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the OKST 26Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
91.7%
Jase Bauer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:1497% → 97%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
96.5%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Christian Fitzpatrick, broken up by Josh HastingsSimilar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
96.5%
Freddie Brock IV run for no gain to the OKST 8Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+19
97.1%
Zane Flores run for 19 yds to the OKST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
97.1%
Zane Flores pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 12 yds to the OKST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
97.5%
Zane Flores sacked by Keyshawn Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the OKST 29Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 20
OWN 29
0
97.5%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Terrill DavisSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 20
OWN 29
0
97.4%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Sam Jackson VSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 20
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Wes Pahl punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:046% → 4%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
93.9%
UT Martin Penalty, false start (Mike Moment) to the UTM 17Similar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+1
94.0%
Chris Franklin run for 1 yd to the UTM 18Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 14
OWN 18
-4
94.0%
Jase Bauer sacked by Brandon Rawls for a loss of 4 yards to the UTM 14Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 18
OWN 14
+7
95.9%
Jase Bauer run for 7 yds to the UTM 21Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
96.4%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 37 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for no gain to the OKST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:5998% → 100%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
98.3%
Zane Flores pass complete to Sam Jackson V for 6 yds to the OKST 48Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
98.3%
Sesi Vailahi run for no gain to the OKST 48Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+10
98.3%
Zane Flores pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 10 yds to the UTM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.3%
Zane Flores pass incomplete to Da'Wain LoftonSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.3%
Gavin Freeman run for 5 yds to the UTM 37Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+9
98.3%
Zane Flores pass complete to Will Monney for 9 yds to the UTM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.0%
Sesi Vailahi run for 3 yds to the UTM 25Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
99.0%
Sesi Vailahi run for 2 yds to the UTM 23Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+14
99.1%
Zane Flores pass complete to Sesi Vailahi for 14 yds to the UTM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.2%
Sesi Vailahi run for 2 yds to the UTM 7Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
99.2%
Sesi Vailahi run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTM 9Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.8%
S. Vailahi run for 9 yds for a TD (L. Ward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
UT Martin Penalty, false start (Dolapo Egunjobi) to the UTM 20Similar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.6%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
99.7%
Chris Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTM 19Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+10
99.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Deuce Oliver for 10 yds to the UTM 29Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:32100% → 99%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.8%
Kalib Hicks run for 5 yds to the OKST 35Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-10
99.3%
Kalib Hicks run for no gain to the OKST 35 Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive holding (Josh Ford) to the OKST 25Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+5
99.2%
Kalib Hicks run for 5 yds to the OKST 30Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.3%
Kalib Hicks run for 4 yds to the OKST 34Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Chase Barry punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 22Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
98.7%
Jr. Chris Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 5:12
L. Ward 39 yd FG GOOD
+11.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:58
John Gentry run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTM 39
-9.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:12
Wes Pahl kickoff for 64 yds
+8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com