Savannah State
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2015
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Savannah State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Savannah State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Savannah State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at CSUQ2 8:08 4th & 2 at SAV 47, down 31Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
- at CSUQ2 1:28 4th & 16 at SAV 29, down 38Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
- at CSUQ3 9:38 4th & 12 at CSU 36, down 44Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at CSUQ4 7:30 4th & 10 at CSU 33, down 48Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at CSUQ4 5:19 4th & 2 at SAV 28, down 45Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at AKRQ4 12:07 4th & 7 at AKR 44, down 36Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (26)
- Q1 14:134th & 8 at SAV 37, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 12:314th & 15 at SAV 16, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 10:334th & 6 at SAV 44, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 5:294th & 10 at SAV 29, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 15:004th & 18 at SAV 2, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:544th & 22 at SAV 13, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:084th & 2 at SAV 47, down 31 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 1:284th & 16 at SAV 29, down 38 · Went for itClose call
- Q3 9:384th & 1 at SAV 44, down 44 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 9:384th & 12 at CSU 36, down 44 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 4:214th & 21 at SAV 3, down 44 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:554th & 13 at CSU 27, down 51 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 7:304th & 10 at CSU 33, down 48 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 5:334th & 11 at CSU 11, down 48 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 5:194th & 2 at SAV 28, down 45 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 12:404th & 5 at AKR 35, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 4:014th & 9 at AKR 13, down 7 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 15:004th & 12 at SAV 2, down 4 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:274th & 17 at SAV 4, down 4 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 6:154th & 5 at SAV 27, down 5 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:504th & 5 at SAV 25, down 12 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 15:004th & 9 at SAV 26, down 19 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 8:224th & 13 at midfield, down 22 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 13:524th & 5 at SAV 30, down 36 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:074th & 7 at AKR 44, down 36 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 6:574th & 10 at SAV 31, down 36 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2015
Expected wins adds up Savannah State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2015
Every game starts at Savannah State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.29
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
- CSUL 13-65 at CSU27% → 0%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −28
- AKRL 9-52 at AKR1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −1
Points of win probability, from Savannah State's side.
Season arc, 2015
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Savannah State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2015
The largest single-play change in Savannah State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Savannah State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Savannah State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Savannah State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Not enough game history yet to compute a stock price.
Series & rivalries
Savannah State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.