2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadSAV aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreSAV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:27 · John Barron punt for 48 yds, downed at the Akron 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 4:01: John Barron 30 yd FG GOOD — SAV win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SAV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:32: Juwuan Tolbert 81 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — SAV win probability +1.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q2 1:11: Cody Grice run for 4 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:05: Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 33 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:47: Conor Hundley run for 18 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SAV made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 12:40SAV 4th & 5 at AKR 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%42% to convertField goal0.9%−<0.145% to makePunt0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:01SAV 4th & 9 at AKR 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call1.5%85% to makePunt1.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00SAV 4th & 12 at SAV 2, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 13:59AKR 4th & 7 at SAV 47, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%average punt
- Q2 12:27SAV 4th & 17 at SAV 4, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q2 9:32AKR 4th & 12 at SAV 14, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.120% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%84% to makePunt96.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 6:15SAV 4th & 5 at SAV 27, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q2 0:50SAV 4th & 5 at SAV 25, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q3 15:00SAV 4th & 9 at SAV 26, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 14:05AKR 4th & 1 at SAV 5, up 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.7%67% to convertField goal98.3%−0.492% to makePunt97.3%−1.4average punt
- Q3 8:32AKR 4th & 4 at SAV 4, up 19Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%−0.193% to makePunt97.4%−1.3average punt
- Q3 8:22SAV 4th & 13 at midfield, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.221% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 13:52SAV 4th & 5 at SAV 30, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:00AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 20, up 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 12:07SAV 4th & 7 at AKR 44, down 36Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%37% to convertField goal0.0%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:25AKR 4th & 2 at midfield, up 36Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:57SAV 4th & 10 at SAV 31, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SAV made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 12:47AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:32SAV Touchdown, up 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick3.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:22AKR Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:11AKR Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:05AKR Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:47AKR Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:59AKR Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:40AKR Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1399% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Imani Davis for 6 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
99.4%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Imani Davis for 11 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+53
99.4%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Anthony Young for 53 yds to the SavSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 2DOWNS16 plays · 49 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 12:40
3RD & 9
OPP 0
0
99.3%
PENALTY SSU false start off-setting, PENALTY AKRON personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+15
99.3%
HANDLER,David pass incomplete to CARRERA,N., PENALTY AKRON pass interference 15 yards to the SSU32, 1ST DOWN SSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.3%
David Handler pass incomplete to Cantrell Frazier, broken up by Dylan EvansSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
99.3%
David Handler pass complete to Joshua Berry for 15 yds to the AKRON 40 SAVANNAH ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SavSt 45Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.3%
David Handler pass complete to Joshua Berry for 15 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
99.3%
SAVANNAH ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SavSt 45Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 21
OWN 49
+16
99.3%
David Handler pass complete to Jeremiah Harris for 16 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
99.3%
David Handler pass complete to Joshua Berry for no gain to the Akron 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3INT2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
SAVDrive 4FG10 plays · 18 yds · 3:301% → 1%
Q1 7:31
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+4
99.0%
David Handler pass complete to Ker-Sean Wilson for 4 yds Ker-Sean Wilson fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+11
99.0%
HANDLER,David pass incomplete to WRIGHT,Deric, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 11 yards to the AKRON14, 1ST DOWN SSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
99.0%
David Handler pass complete to Joshua Berry for no gain to the Akron 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5INT10 plays · 73 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
SAVDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:172% → 2%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-3
98.3%
Arshon Spaulding run for a loss of 3 yards to the SavSt 1 Arshon Spaulding fumbled, recovered by SavSt Arshon SpauldingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 13:59
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
98.0%
Zach Paul punt for 36 yds , Cantrell Frazier returns for no gain to the SavSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9MISSED FG TD6 plays · 38 yds · 2:0198% → 97%
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+40
97.8%
Donnell Alexander run for 28 yds to the AKRON 24 for a 1ST down SAVANNAH ST Penalty, personal foul (12 Yards) to the SavSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+81
96.9%
Juwuan Tolbert 81 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:1097% → 97%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
97.0%
Thomas Woodson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
50
+16
97.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Newman Williams for 16 yds to the SavSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+8
97.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 8 yds to the SavSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
97.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Conor Hundley for 17 yds to the SavSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+4
97.1%
David Handler pass complete to Ker-Sean Wilson for 4 yds to the SavSt 27Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+8
97.2%
John Barron punt for 42 yds , A.J. Coney returns for 8 yds to the SavSt 35 SAVANNAH ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SavSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12TD9 plays · 46 yds · 3:4797% → 98%
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+18
97.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kris Givens for 18 yds to the SavSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:152% → 3%
AKRDrive 14TD5 plays · 61 yds · 0:3297% → 99%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
97.5%
WOODSON, T. pass incomplete to GOODMAN, Tyrell, PENALTY SSU pass interference 11 yards to the SSU33, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
99.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 33 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
David Handler pass incomplete to Ker-Sean Wilson, broken up by Dylan EvansSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
98.4%
David Handler pass incomplete to Jeremiah Harris, broken up by Kris GivensSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+18
98.4%
John Barron punt for 33 yds , A.J. Coney returns for 18 yds to the SavSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17DOWNS6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Conor Hundley for 5 yds to the SavSt 36Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+9
99.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Richie Cooper for 9 yds to the SavSt 27 for a 1ST down SAVANNAH ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) to the SavSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
99.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Conor Hundley for 8 yds to the SavSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 18INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
98.4%
David Handler pass intercepted DeAndre Scott return for 13 yds to the SavSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19FG7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4799% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 20PUNT12 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+8
99.1%
Arshon Spaulding pass complete to Ker-Sean Wilson for 8 yds to the SavSt 32Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
99.0%
Arshon Spaulding sacked by Brennan Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the SavSt 27Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+26
99.1%
Arshon Spaulding pass complete to Nicholas Carrera for 26 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21TD5 plays · 80 yds · 2:2799% → 100%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
99.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 40 yds to the SavSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 22FUMBLE6 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
99.9%
Arshon Spaulding pass complete to Cantrell Frazier for 15 yds to the SavSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 12
50
-1
99.9%
Arshon Spaulding run for a loss of 1 yard to the SavSt 49 Arshon Spaulding fumbled, recovered by Akron Christopher SpruillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23TD7 plays · 49 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
SAVDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:52
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
John Barron punt for 46 yds , A.J. Coney returns for 1 yd to the Akron 31 AKRON Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
SAVDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
99.9%
Arshon Spaulding pass complete to Cantrell Frazier for 10 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line TEAM fumbled, recovered by SavSt Richard Williams II , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.9%
Donnell Alexander run for 10 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Austin Wolf for 8 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Tra'Von Chapman pass incomplete to Austin Wolf, broken up by Darryl BonnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 28PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Ker-Sean Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SavSt 30 Tranearious DillardSimilar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
100.0%
David Handler pass incomplete to Cantrell Frazier SAVANNAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+5
100.0%
John Barron punt for 47 yds , A.J. Coney returns for 5 yds to the Akron 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 29TD4 plays · 73 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
SAVDrive 30END OF GAME7 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:05
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 33 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q2 1:11
Cody Grice run for 4 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 9:32
Juwuan Tolbert 81 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-1