Savannah State
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2014
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Savannah State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Savannah State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Savannah State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at BYUQ2 12:05 4th & 21 at SAV 14, down 35Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.2 pts
- at MTSUQ2 11:00 4th & 12 at MTSU 38, down 27Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts
- at MTSUQ1 11:24 4th & 2 at SAV 31, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (27)
- Q1 11:244th & 2 at SAV 31, down 6 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 7:514th & 8 at SAV 21, down 13 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:154th & 7 at SAV 18, down 27 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 11:004th & 12 at MTSU 38, down 27 · Went for itClose call
- Q2 8:284th & 24 at MTSU 45, down 27 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 11:014th & 9 at SAV 23, down 41 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 11:014th & 20 at SAV 10, down 54 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 2:244th & 8 at MTSU 18, down 54 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 10:124th & 6 at SAV 42, down 47 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:434th & 4 at MTSU 49, down 54 · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 15:004th & 14 at SAV 31, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 9:544th & 3 at SAV 37, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 6:524th & 7 at SAV 28, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 9:214th & 12 at SAV 23, down 41 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 3:044th & 7 at SAV 32, down 48 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 3:384th & 10 at SAV 12, down 69 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 9:074th & 21 at GASO 22, down 76 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 13:334th & 7 at SAV 34, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 7:174th & 5 at SAV 27, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 3:254th & 10 at SAV 49, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 14:574th & 1 at SAV 28, down 21 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 12:054th & 21 at SAV 14, down 35 · Went for itClose call
- Q2 9:594th & 8 at SAV 21, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 14:544th & 14 at SAV 16, down 51 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 12:154th & 5 at BYU 30, down 51 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 9:274th & 8 at BYU 49, down 51 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:384th & 18 at SAV 45, down 57 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2014
Expected wins adds up Savannah State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2014
Every game starts at Savannah State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.04
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.02
Game by game
- MTSUL 7-61 at MTSU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
- GASOL 9-83 at GASO1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
- BYUL 0-64 at BYU0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0
Points of win probability, from Savannah State's side.
Season arc, 2014
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Savannah State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2014
The largest single-play change in Savannah State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Savannah State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Savannah State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Savannah State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Not enough game history yet to compute a stock price.
Series & rivalries
Savannah State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.