Rhode Island
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2019
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Rhode Island allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Rhode Island.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Rhode Island's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.01 of the 0.03 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at VTQ4 7:40 4th & 19 at VT 19, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.3 pts
- at OHIOQ3 2:14 4th & 9 at URI 34, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.7 pts
- at VTQ2 12:15 4th & 1 at VT 24, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
- at VTQ4 9:15 4th & 9 at VT 30, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts
- at OHIOQ2 0:12 4th & 2 at OHIO 2, down 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
- at OHIOQ4 14:31 4th & 3 at URI 45, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at VTQ4 1:56 4th & 18 at URI 17, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
- at OHIOQ1 12:35 4th & 2 at OHIO 45, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
Every call this season (17)
- Q1 12:354th & 2 at OHIO 45, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q1 0:364th & 9 at OHIO 36, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 13:344th & 14 at OHIO 18, down 7 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 6:124th & 11 at URI 24, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:124th & 2 at OHIO 2, down 14 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q3 2:144th & 9 at URI 34, down 14 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 14:314th & 3 at URI 45, down 21 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 9:404th & 10 at URI 35, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 3:074th & 5 at OHIO 5, down 21 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 5:044th & 6 at URI 42, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:154th & 1 at VT 24, down 10 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 5:424th & 2 at VT 34, down 14 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 2:374th & 6 at VT 25, down 10 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q4 12:104th & 10 at URI 37, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 9:154th & 9 at VT 30, down 14 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 7:404th & 19 at VT 19, down 14 · Went for it−1.3 pts
- Q4 1:564th & 18 at URI 17, down 17 · Went for itClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2019
Expected wins adds up Rhode Island's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2019
Every game starts at Rhode Island's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.16
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.09
Game by game
- OHIOL 20-41 at OHIO5% → 0%Before kickoff −45 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −9
- VTL 17-34 at VT3% → 1%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −7
Points of win probability, from Rhode Island's side.
Closest call
URI 35-22 MASS (2021) - Rhode Island dropped to a 35.8% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2019
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Rhode Island's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2019
The largest single-play change in Rhode Island's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Rhode Island's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Rhode Island's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Rhode Island's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Rhode Island's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.