2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadURI aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreURI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:04 · Davey Schaum-Bartocci punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:46: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 37 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +1.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:26: Vito Priore pass complete to Ahmere Dorsey for 9 yds for a TD, (Vito Priore pass to Aaron Parker for Two-Point Conversion) — URI win probability +6.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 7:57: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dalton Keene for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +4.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:37: C.J. Carrick 41 yd FG GOOD — URI win probability +3.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:41: Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4URI made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
- Q1 8:44VT 4th & 5 at URI 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.2%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call94.2%92% to makePunt93.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:04URI 4th & 6 at URI 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q2 12:15URI 4th & 1 at VT 24, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%71% to convertField goalTheir call6.8%−0.468% to makePunt5.7%−1.5average punt
- Q2 5:42URI 4th & 2 at VT 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.4%57% to convertField goal6.0%−0.547% to makePunt5.8%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:01VT 4th & 24 at URI 44, up 11Close callWent for it · 92.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.5%−0.97% to convertField goal91.9%−0.527% to makePunt92.4%average punt
- Q3 2:37URI 4th & 6 at VT 25, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 10.1% before the snapGo for it10.2%39% to convertField goalTheir call10.2%−<0.166% to makePunt5.5%−4.7average punt
- Q4 12:10URI 4th & 10 at URI 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q4 11:12VT 4th & 7 at VT 31, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.836% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%average punt
- Q4 9:15URI 4th & 9 at VT 30, down 14Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%−0.332% to convertField goal5.3%56% to makePunt4.4%−1.0average punt
- Q4 7:40URI 4th & 19 at VT 19, down 14Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 5.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.3%−1.310% to convertField goal5.7%77% to makePunt3.2%−2.5average punt
- Q4 2:06VT 4th & 5 at URI 5, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.4%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call97.4%92% to makePunt95.7%−1.7average punt
- Q4 1:56URI 4th & 18 at URI 17, down 17Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%−0.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4URI made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 1:17VT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:46VT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:26URI Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick13.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call13.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:57VT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.7%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:41VT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1FG14 plays · 81 yds · 6:0897% → 96%
Q1 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+14
96.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dalton Keene for 14 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
96.7%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Keith Wells and Jim Philistin for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+12
96.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+40
96.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Keshawn King for 40 yds to the RIsld 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 2PUNT11 plays · 17 yds · 3:364% → 5%
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.7%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 6 yds to the RIsld 31Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
95.7%
Vito Priore pass complete to Zoe Bryant Jr. for 2 yds to the RIsld 33Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
95.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the RIsld 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
95.6%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 7 yds to the RIsld 45Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+7
95.1%
Vito Priore pass complete to Zoe Bryant Jr. for 7 yds to the RIsld 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD11 plays · 86 yds · 2:5995% → 95%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
94.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 9 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+18
94.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dalton Keene for 18 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+15
94.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to James Mitchell, PENALTY URI pass interference (Rashod Dickerson) 15 yards to the URI4, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY, clock 02:06.Similar
Q1 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Malik WilderSimilar
Q1 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 9 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 4FG8 plays · 51 yds · 4:025% → 6%
Q1 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
95.2%
Vito Priore sacked by Alan Tisdale for a loss of 9 yards to the RIsld 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+51
95.1%
Vito Priore pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 51 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+4
94.7%
Vito Priore pass complete to Zoe Bryant Jr. for 4 yds to the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD9 plays · 66 yds · 2:2894% → 96%
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
95.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 37 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 6FG16 plays · 56 yds · 6:175% → 6%
Q2 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
95.3%
Vito Priore pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 16 yds to the RIsld 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+7
94.9%
Vito Priore pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 7 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+5
94.8%
Vito Priore pass complete to Ahmere Dorsey for 5 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+9
94.7%
Vito Priore pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 9 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
94.3%
Vito Priore pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 22 yds to the VTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.3%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Aaron Parker, broken up by Jermaine WallerSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
94.4%
RHODE ISLAND Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the VTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7DOWNS10 plays · 27 yds · 3:1594% → 93%
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+18
93.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dalton Keene for 18 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
94.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds to the RIsld 47Similar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
94.3%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Andre Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the RIsld 38Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 24
OPP 44
0
93.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Darryle Simmons for no gain to the RIsld 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 8TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:347% → 15%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
93.0%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 16 yds to the RIsld 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
92.7%
Vito Priore pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 11 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
92.5%
Zoe Bryant Jr. run for 22 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (TyJuan Garbutt) to the VTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
85.2%
Vito Priore pass complete to Ahmere Dorsey for 9 yds for a TD, (Vito Priore pass to Aaron Parker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD12 plays · 93 yds · 4:2587% → 93%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+26
87.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 26 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
87.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 7 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+12
87.3%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, PENALTY URI pass interference (Malik Wilder) 12 yards to the URI48, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
88.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 4 yds to the RIsld 44Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+27
87.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 27 yds to the RIsld 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dalton Keene for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 10FG15 plays · 60 yds · 5:168% → 12%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
91.8%
Vito Priore pass complete to Zoe Bryant Jr. for 1 yd to the RIsld 16Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
91.9%
Vito Priore sacked for loss of 11 yards to the URI5 (TyJuan Garbutt), PENALTY VT offside defense (Emmanuel Belmar) 5 yards to the URI21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-5
92.4%
RHODE ISLAND Penalty, false start (Isaiah Coulter) to the RIsld 19Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+15
92.8%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Ivory Frimpong, PENALTY VT pass interference (Caleb Farley) 15 yards to the URI34, 1ST DOWN URI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
92.2%
Vito Priore pass complete to Ahmere Dorsey for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
50
0
91.4%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Isaiah Coulter, broken up by Jermaine WallerSimilar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+14
91.5%
Vito Priore pass complete to Ed Lee for 14 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
90.7%
Vito Priore pass complete to Ahmere Dorsey for 4 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
90.8%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Isaiah Coulter, broken up by Caleb FarleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5691% → 97%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
92.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 31 yds to the RIsld 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 1:314% → 4%
VTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4597% → 97%
Q4 11:12
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
96.7%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ahmere Dorsey at the RIsld 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 14DOWNS14 plays · 51 yds · 3:254% → 3%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
96.0%
Vito Priore pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 11 yds to the RIsld 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+13
96.3%
Vito Priore pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 13 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
96.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Reggie Floyd) to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.8%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Aaron Parker, broken up by Jermaine WallerSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
95.8%
Vito Priore pass complete to Justice Antrum for 1 yd to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+25
96.4%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 25 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-14
95.7%
Vito Priore sacked by Chamarri Conner for a loss of 14 yards to the VTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15FG13 plays · 76 yds · 5:2797% → 99%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
97.3%
Deshawn McClease rush up middle for 2 yards to the VT21 (Andre Blackett), PENALTY VT IF 5 yards to the VT14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the RIsld 11 TEAM fumbled, recovered by VTech Hendon HookerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 16DOWNS5 plays · 2 yds · 0:061% → 1%
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
Vito Priore pass complete to Justice Antrum for 2 yds to the RIsld 27Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
99.4%
Vito Priore sacked by Mario Kendricks and Rob Porcher for a loss of 10 yards to the RIsld 17Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+10
99.4%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 10 yds to the RIsld 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:26
Vito Priore pass complete to Ahmere Dorsey for 9 yds for a TD, (Vito Priore pass to Aaron Parker for Two-Point Conversion)
-6.4
TD · Q3 7:57
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dalton Keene for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q4 13:41
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
+3.8