2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadURI aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreURI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:31 · Davey Schaum-Bartocci punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 22 , Jerome Buckner returns for 9 yds to the Ohio 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:00: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Tupa for 22 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +2.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:01: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 4 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +4.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:09: Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 34 yds for a TD, (C.J. Carrick KICK) — URI win probability +6.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:16: Louie Zervos 42 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +2.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:40: De'Montre Tuggle run for 6 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2URI made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
- Q1 12:35URI 4th & 2 at OHIO 45, tiedClose callPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.7%57% to convertField goal6.5%−0.225% to makePuntTheir call6.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:36URI 4th & 9 at OHIO 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.6%32% to convertField goal8.5%−<0.142% to makePunt8.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:34URI 4th & 14 at OHIO 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.417% to convertField goalTheir call8.8%79% to makePunt7.5%−1.3average punt
- Q2 10:18OHIO 4th & 4 at URI 20, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snapGo for it88.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call88.8%−0.175% to makePunt87.4%−1.5average punt
- Q2 6:12URI 4th & 11 at URI 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q2 0:12URI 4th & 2 at OHIO 2, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snapGo for it8.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call7.9%−0.294% to makePunt6.3%−1.8average punt
- Q3 4:16OHIO 4th & 16 at URI 25, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snapGo for it90.2%−0.815% to convertField goalTheir call91.1%66% to makePunt88.2%−2.9average punt
- Q3 2:14URI 4th & 9 at URI 34, down 14Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.9%−0.731% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.6%average punt
- Q4 14:31URI 4th & 3 at URI 45, down 21Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:40URI 4th & 10 at URI 35, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:07URI 4th & 5 at OHIO 5, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%−<0.133% to convertField goal1.1%92% to makePunt0.4%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5URI made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 5:50OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:00OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:01OHIO Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:09URI Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.2%97% to makeGo for two8.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:40OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:12OHIO Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:24URI Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartURIDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 2:205% → 6%
Q1 13:10
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+7
94.4%
Vito Priore pass complete to Zoe Bryant Jr. for 7 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2TD13 plays · 94 yds · 6:3894% → 94%
Q1 11:44
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+8
94.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 8 yds to the Ohio 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+10
93.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 10 yds to the Ohio 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
93.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for no gain to the Ohio 33Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+17
93.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Tupa for 17 yds to the RIsld 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
93.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 31 yds to the RIsld 17 for a 1ST down RHODE ISLAND Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+10
93.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Tupa for 10 yds to the RIsld 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 3FG19 plays · 57 yds · 7:167% → 9%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.4%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 5 yds to the RIsld 30Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
93.3%
Vito Priore pass complete to Zoe Bryant Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the RIsld 25Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.3%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 11 yds to the RIsld 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
93.0%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 5 yds to the RIsld 41Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+22
92.7%
Vito Priore pass complete to Ahmere Dorsey for 22 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-10
92.1%
Clock 02:07, Priore rush for 3 yards to the OHIO31 (COLEMAN, M.), PENALTY URI holding (Lovell) 10 yards to the OHIO44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+3
92.4%
Vito Priore pass complete to Ahmere Dorsey for 3 yds to the Ohio 41 RHODE ISLAND Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+5
92.6%
Clock 01:06, Priore pass complete to Aa. Parker for 7 yards to the OHIO34 (BROOKS, M.;HUDSON, J.), PENALTY OHIO offside defense (OGUN-SEMORE, A.) 5 yards to the OHIO36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
91.6%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Aaron Parker, broken up by Jarren HamptonSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-4
91.9%
Vito Priore sacked by Cole Baker and Jared Dorsa for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4FG7 plays · 45 yds · 3:1691% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 10 yds · 3:598% → 9%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
91.6%
Clock 10:11, Coulter rush for 4 yards to the URI18 (HAGAN, J.), PENALTY URI holding (C. Warren) 7 yards to the URI7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 13
OWN 11
+9
91.6%
Vito Priore pass complete to Matt Pires for 9 yds to the RIsld 20Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+5
91.7%
Clock 07:35, PENALTY OHIO offside defense (FLOYD, A.) 5 yards to the URI25, 1ST DOWN URI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
91.2%
Clock 07:13, Priore pass incomplete to Aa. Parker, QB hurry by BAKER, C., PENALTY URI holding (Ra. Johnson) 10 yards to the URI15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
91.4%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Aaron Parker, broken up by Jamal HudsonSimilar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
91.5%
Davey Schaum-Bartocci punt for 37 yds , Jerome Buckner returns for no gain to the Ohio 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6TD7 plays · 61 yds · 3:0492% → 94%
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
91.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Adam Luehrman for 6 yds Adam Luehrman fumbled, forced by Rashod Dickerson, recovered by Ohio Adam LuehrmanSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
91.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 5 yds to the RIsld 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
94.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Tupa for 22 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 7FG12 plays · 68 yds · 2:487% → 8%
Q2 2:19
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-10
93.2%
Clock 02:19, Priore pass complete to Bryant for 2 yards to the URI41 (CONNER, D.;CONRAD, A.), PENALTY URI holding (K. Lawrence) 10 yards to the URI29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+15
93.6%
Vito Priore pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 15 yds to the RIsld 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
93.4%
Clock 01:22, Priore pass incomplete to Aa. Parker, PENALTY OHIO pass interference (HUDSON, J.) 15 yards to the OHIO41, 1ST DOWN URI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+38
92.8%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 38 yds to the Ohio 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.6%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Aaron Parker, broken up by Marlin BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9TD11 plays · 72 yds · 4:5492% → 97%
Q3 14:01
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+14
91.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 14 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
92.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Isiah Cox, broken up by Brian CampbellSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
92.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 3 yds to the RIsld 48Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+16
91.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 16 yds to the RIsld 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
92.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 9 yds to the RIsld 23Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+2
92.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 2 yds to the RIsld 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 4 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 10TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:524% → 11%
Q3 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
95.9%
Clock 09:25, Priore pass incomplete to Coulter, QB hurry by CONNER, D., PENALTY OHIO roughing passer (CONNER, D.) 15 yards to the URI41, 1ST DOWN URI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
95.6%
Vito Priore pass complete to Ahmere Dorsey for 10 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
89.1%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 34 yds for a TD, (C.J. Carrick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11FG9 plays · 50 yds · 3:5392% → 94%
URIDrive 12DOWNS6 plays · -2 yds · 1:567% → 6%
OHIODrive 13TD3 plays · 15 yds · 1:3096% → 99%
URIDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 1:041% → 1%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
98.6%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 19 yds to the RIsld 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
98.8%
Vito Priore pass complete to Joey Kenny for 5 yds to the RIsld 45 RHODE ISLAND Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:31
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+9
98.8%
Davey Schaum-Bartocci punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 22 , Jerome Buckner returns for 9 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD8 plays · 78 yds · 3:0999% → 100%
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-10
99.0%
Clock 14:15, TUGGLE, D. rush for 78 yards to the URI0, clock 14:02, PENALTY OHIO holding (KITRELL, B.) 10 yards to the OHIO12, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Aaron Parker, broken up by Eric PoppSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Vito Priore pass complete to Caleb Warren for 9 yds to the RIsld 34Similar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Isaiah Coulter, broken up by Ilyaas MotleySimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Caleb Warren, broken up by Michael BallentineSimilar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Davey Schaum-Bartocci punt for 33 yds , Jerome Buckner returns for no gain to the Ohio 38 Jerome Buckner fumbled, recovered by RIsld Jake FireSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 17TD1 play · 38 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
99.1%
Vito Priore pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 38 yds for a TD, (C.J. Carrick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18INT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1599% → 99%
URIDrive 19INT14 plays · 72 yds · 4:511% → 1%
Q4 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
99.2%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Isaiah Coulter, broken up by Ilyaas MotleySimilar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+7
99.3%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 7 yds to the RIsld 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
99.4%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 8 yds to the RIsld 42Similar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
99.4%
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 17 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+24
99.3%
Vito Priore pass complete to Ahmere Dorsey for 24 yds to the Ohio 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.3%
Vito Priore pass incomplete to Isaiah Coulter, broken up by Michael BallentineSimilar
Q4 3:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.4%
Vito Priore pass intercepted, touchback. Marlin Brooks return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20END OF GAME5 plays · 34 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:09
Vito Priore pass complete to Aaron Parker for 34 yds for a TD, (C.J. Carrick KICK)
-6.3
TD · Q3 10:01
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 4 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q3 0:40
De'Montre Tuggle run for 6 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+2.8