ARDLINETry the model
URI

Rhode Island 14 at Western Michigan 47

WMU
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Waldo Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadURI aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGKEY PLAYTDTDTDKEY PLAYKEY PLAY
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URI · Drive 1TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Hunter Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.0%
0.0
Q1 14:54
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 2 yds to the URI 27
69.2%
-1.8
Q1 14:16
Devin Farrell pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for 56 yds to the WMU 17 for a 1ST down
68.3%
-0.9
Q1 13:54
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Farrell,Devin pass incomplete short right to Buchanan,Marquis thrown to WMU00 PENALTY WMU Pass Interference (Franklin,Josh) 15 yards from WMU17 to WMU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
65.9%
-2.3
Q1 13:49
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Garth White KICK)
50.7%
-15.2
WMU · Drive 2FG · 17 plays · 68 yds
Q1 13:46
Garth White kickoff for 59 yds , Devin Miles return for 15 yds to the WMU 21
52.9%
+2.2
Q1 13:31
Broc Lowry pass complete to Devin Miles for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 20
56.4%
+3.5
Q1 13:10
PENALTY URI Offside (Pena,A.J.) 5 yards from WMU20 to WMU25. NO PLAY.
56.4%
0.0
Q1 12:58
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the WMU 30
55.1%
-1.3
Q1 12:26
Ofa Mataele run for 5 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST down Rhode Island Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (A.J. Pena) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
55.1%
0.0
Q1 12:04
Broc Lowry pass complete to Devin Miles for 15 yds to the URI 35 for a 1ST down
56.4%
+1.3
Q1 11:30
Devin Miles run for no gain to the URI 35
58.0%
+1.6
Q1 10:51
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique Williams
58.0%
0.0
Q1 10:40
Broc Lowry run for 9 yds to the URI 26
57.8%
-0.2
Q1 10:01
Broc Lowry run for 6 yds to the URI 20 for a 1ST down
57.4%
-0.4
Q1 9:28
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Michael Brescia
58.2%
+0.8
Q1 9:17
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 7 yds to the URI 13
58.2%
0.0
Q1 8:45
Ofa Mataele run for 4 yds to the URI 9 for a 1ST down
57.5%
-0.7
Q1 8:06
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for a loss of 1 yard to the URI 10
57.8%
+0.3
Q1 7:33
Ofa Mataele run for a loss of 1 yard to the URI 11
57.8%
0.0
Q1 6:52
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique Williams
57.5%
-0.2
Q1 6:48
Palmer Domschke 29 yd FG GOOD
66.1%
+8.6
URI · Drive 3PUNT · 6 plays · 2 yds
Q1 6:48
Hunter Smith kickoff for 62 yds
64.1%
-2.0
Q1 6:42
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 2 yds to the URI 27
60.6%
-3.5
Q1 6:06
Devin Farrell pass incomplete to Marquis Buchanan
59.9%
-0.7
Q1 6:06
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 06:06
57.2%
-2.7
Q1 5:58
Devin Farrell pass incomplete to Greg Gaines III
57.2%
0.0
Q1 5:50
James Allen punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMU 28
57.2%
0.0
WMU · Drive 4TD · 13 plays · 72 yds
Q1 5:42
Ofa Mataele run for 8 yds to the WMU 36
62.0%
+4.8
Q1 5:04
Ofa Mataele run for 5 yds to the WMU 41 for a 1ST down
62.0%
0.0
Q1 4:26
Broc Lowry pass complete to Terence Marshall for 4 yds to the WMU 45
62.6%
+0.6
Q1 3:33
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for no gain to the WMU 45
62.5%
-0.1
Q1 3:10
Broc Lowry pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 6 yds to the URI 49 for a 1ST down
62.3%
-0.2
Q1 2:42
Devin Miles run for 4 yds to the URI 45
63.7%
+1.4
Q1 2:08
Broc Lowry run for 9 yds to the URI 36 for a 1ST down
63.4%
-0.3
Q1 1:26
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 22 yds to the URI 14 for a 1ST down
63.5%
+0.1
Q1 0:48
Cole Cabana run for 6 yds to the URI 8
63.5%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Broc Lowry run for 1 yd to the URI 7
63.2%
-0.3
Q2 14:49
Ofa Mataele run for 2 yds to the URI 5
63.0%
-0.2
Q2 14:00
Broc Lowry run for 1 yd to the URI 4 for a 1ST down
62.6%
-0.4
Q2 13:35
Broc Lowry run for 4 yds for a TD Rhode Island Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ayinde Johnson) declined (Palmer Domschke KICK)
74.1%
+11.5
URI · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · -8 yds
Q2 13:30
Hunter Smith kickoff for 65 yds , Trey Lubin return for 21 yds to the URI 21
72.7%
-1.4
Q2 13:26
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 1 yd to the URI 22
71.4%
-1.3
Q2 12:51
Devin Farrell pass incomplete to Greg Gaines III
71.4%
0.0
Q2 12:42
Devin Farrell sacked by Kershawn Fisher for a loss of 9 yards to the URI 13
71.4%
0.0
Q2 12:01
James Allen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Christian Leary at the WMU 45
71.4%
0.0
WMU · Drive 6TD · 8 plays · 55 yds
Q2 11:43
Broc Lowry pass complete to Devin Miles for 8 yds to the URI 47
73.1%
+1.7
Q2 11:15
Ofa Mataele run for a loss of 1 yard to the URI 48
73.5%
+0.4
Q2 10:50
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 10:50
73.3%
-0.3
Q2 10:42
Broc Lowry run for 3 yds to the URI 45 for a 1ST down
73.3%
0.0
Q2 10:00
Devin Miles run for 8 yds to the URI 37
73.5%
+0.2
Q2 9:19
Broc Lowry run for 3 yds to the URI 34 for a 1ST down
73.8%
+0.3
Q2 8:37
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 24 yds to the URI 10 for a 1ST down
73.8%
0.0
Q2 7:59
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 10 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
85.4%
+11.6
URI · Drive 7FUMBLE · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q2 7:59
Hunter Smith kickoff for 56 yds
85.0%
-0.4
Q2 7:46
Devin Farrell pass complete to Antwain Littleton Jr. for 2 yds to the URI 23
83.7%
-1.3
Q2 7:12
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Farrell,Devin pass intercepted by Sims,Jarvarius at URI46, End Of Play PENALTY WMU Holding (Moore,Dillon) 10 yards from URI23 to URI33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
83.7%
0.0
Q2 6:50
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 4 yds to the URI 37
83.7%
0.0
Q2 6:15
Devin Farrell sacked by Marcel Tyler for a loss of 8 yards to the URI 29 Devin Farrell fumbled, recovered by WMU Kershawn Fisher , return for 0 yards
83.7%
0.0
WMU · Drive 8TD · 3 plays · 29 yds
Q2 6:07
Cole Cabana run for 1 yd to the URI 28
85.4%
+1.7
Q2 5:31
Broc Lowry run for 6 yds to the URI 22
86.7%
+1.4
Q2 4:54
Ofa Mataele run for 22 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
94.0%
+7.3
URI · Drive 9INT · 9 plays · 62 yds
Q2 4:54
Hunter Smith kickoff for 64 yds
93.9%
-0.1
Q2 4:45
Devin Farrell pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for 11 yds to the URI 36 for a 1ST down
92.3%
-1.6
Q2 4:29
Devin Farrell pass incomplete to Aboraa Kwarteng
92.5%
+0.2
Q2 4:18
Devin Farrell pass complete to Connor Finer for 26 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST down
92.5%
0.0
Q2 4:01
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 6 yds to the WMU 32
92.0%
-0.5
Q2 3:43
PENALTY URI False Start (Robinson,Demetri) 5 yards from WMU32 to WMU37. NO PLAY.
91.7%
-0.3
Q2 3:18
Devin Farrell pass complete to Connor Finer for 24 yds to the WMU 13 for a 1ST down
92.0%
+0.3
Q2 2:50
Devin Farrell pass incomplete to Aboraa Kwarteng
91.6%
-0.4
Q2 2:41
Devin Farrell pass intercepted Micah Davis return for 45 yds to the WMU 45
91.6%
0.0
WMU · Drive 10TD · 9 plays · 55 yds
Q2 2:34
Devin Miles run for 3 yds to the WMU 48
94.2%
+2.5
Q2 1:50
Devin Miles run for 18 yds to the URI 34 for a 1ST down
94.1%
-0.1
Q2 1:45
Broc Lowry run for 7 yds to the URI 27
94.0%
-0.1
Q2 1:26
Devin Miles run for 3 yds to the URI 24 for a 1ST down
94.0%
0.0
Q2 1:14
Devin Miles run for 5 yds to the URI 19
94.0%
0.0
Q2 0:46
Broc Lowry run for 2 yds to the URI 17
94.1%
+0.1
Q2 0:27
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 16 yds to the URI 1 for a 1ST down
93.9%
-0.2
Q2 0:20
Devin Miles run for 1 yd for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
97.6%
+3.7
Q2 0:20
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 00:20
92.1%
-5.4
URI · Drive 11END OF HALF · 6 plays · 40 yds
Q2 0:20
Hunter Smith kickoff for 59 yds
97.5%
+5.3
Q2 0:14
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 11 yds to the URI 36 for a 1ST down
97.3%
-0.2
Q2 0:14
Timeout Rhode Island, clock 00:14
97.3%
0.0
Q2 0:06
Devin Farrell pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for 24 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST down
97.3%
0.0
Q2 0:06
Timeout Rhode Island, clock 00:06
97.2%
-0.1
Q2 0:00
Devin Farrell pass complete to Antwain Littleton Jr. for 5 yds to the WMU 35
97.2%
0.0
WMU · Drive 12PUNT · 6 plays · 7 yds
Q3 13:35
Garth White kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
97.4%
+0.2
Q3 13:35
Ofa Mataele run for 13 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST down
97.7%
+0.3
Q3 13:35
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Malique Dieudonne
97.7%
0.0
Q3 13:35
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Ofa Mataele
97.7%
0.0
Q3 13:35
Broc Lowry sacked by Moses Meus for a loss of 6 yards to the WMU 32
97.7%
0.0
Q3 13:35
Ryan Millmore punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Angel Sanchez at the URI 20
97.7%
0.0
URI · Drive 13FUMBLE · 1 play · -6 yds
Q3 13:35
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the URI 3 Antwain Littleton Jr. fumbled, recovered by WMU Sefa Saipaia Jr.
97.4%
-0.3
WMU · Drive 14TD · 1 play · 3 yds
Q3 13:35
Ofa Mataele run for 3 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
98.6%
+1.2
URI · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q3 13:24
Hunter Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.6%
+0.1
Q3 13:12
Devin Farrell pass complete to Greg Gaines III for 8 yds to the URI 33
98.2%
-0.4
Q3 12:48
Devin Farrell pass complete to Antwain Littleton Jr. for no gain to the URI 33
98.1%
0.0
Q3 11:40
Devin Farrell sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the URI 27
98.1%
0.0
Q3 11:23
punt for 43 yds , Joshua Franklin returns for no gain to the WMU 30
98.1%
0.0
WMU · Drive 16FG · 9 plays · 47 yds
Q3 11:06
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 16 yds to the WMU 46 for a 1ST down
98.6%
+0.5
Q3 10:17
Devin Miles run for 5 yds to the URI 49
98.6%
0.0
Q3 10:00
Devin Miles run for 6 yds to the URI 43 for a 1ST down
98.6%
0.0
Q3 9:23
Devin Miles run for no gain to the URI 43
98.6%
0.0
Q3 8:45
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for 17 yds to the URI 26 for a 1ST down
98.6%
0.0
Q3 8:06
Devin Miles run for 1 yd to the URI 25
98.6%
0.0
Q3 7:25
Broc Lowry run for 2 yds to the URI 23
98.6%
0.0
Q3 6:44
Broc Lowry pass complete to Terence Marshall for no gain to the URI 23
98.6%
0.0
Q3 6:12
Palmer Domschke 41 yd FG GOOD
98.6%
0.0
URI · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · -5 yds
Q3 6:12
Hunter Smith kickoff for 63 yds
98.6%
0.0
Q3 6:05
Devin Farrell pass incomplete to Marquis Buchanan
98.5%
-0.1
Q3 5:55
Devin Farrell sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the URI 20
98.5%
0.0
Q3 5:12
Devin Farrell pass incomplete to Marquis Buchanan
98.5%
-0.1
Q3 4:57
James Allen punt for 48 yds , Joshua Franklin returns for 30 yds to the URI 38
98.5%
0.0
WMU · Drive 18FG · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q3 4:31
Cole Cabana run for 9 yds to the URI 29
98.7%
+0.3
Q3 4:09
Cole Cabana run for a loss of 2 yards to the URI 31
98.7%
0.0
Q3 3:31
Cole Cabana run for no gain to the URI 31
98.7%
0.0
Q3 2:54
Palmer Domschke 49 yd FG GOOD
99.1%
+0.4
URI · Drive 19TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q3 2:54
Hunter Smith kickoff for 60 yds
99.1%
0.0
Q3 2:49
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 3 yds to the URI 28
98.9%
-0.1
Q3 2:17
Devin Farrell pass complete to Connor Finer for 15 yds to the URI 43 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q3 1:33
Devin Farrell pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for 26 yds to the WMU 31 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q3 1:10
Devin Farrell pass complete to Connor Finer for 16 yds to the WMU 15 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q3 0:29
Devin Farrell pass complete to Greg Gaines III for 5 yds to the WMU 10
98.9%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 5 yds to the WMU 5 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q4 14:54
Devin Farrell pass complete to Antwain Littleton Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Garth White KICK)
98.4%
-0.5
WMU · Drive 20FUMBLE · 4 plays · -8 yds
Q4 14:54
Garth White kickoff for 65 yds
98.4%
0.0
Q4 14:39
Tre' Hartwell run for 1 yd to the WMU 26
98.7%
+0.2
Q4 14:05
Brady Jones run for a loss of 9 yards to the WMU 17 Brady Jones fumbled, recovered by URI Antonio Morgan
98.7%
0.0
Q4 14:05
Brady Jones run for a loss of 9 yards to the WMU 17 Brady Jones fumbled, recovered by URI Antonio Morgan
98.7%
0.0
URI · Drive 21DOWNS · 4 plays · -17 yds
Q4 13:57
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for no gain to the WMU 17
98.3%
-0.3
Q4 13:20
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 5 yds to the WMU 12
98.3%
0.0
Q4 12:38
Devin Farrell sacked by Marcel Tyler for a loss of 11 yards to the WMU 23
98.3%
0.0
Q4 11:45
Devin Farrell sacked by Will Gerig for a loss of 11 yards to the WMU 34
98.3%
0.0
WMU · Drive 22INT · 13 plays · 38 yds
Q4 11:41
Cole Cabana run for 2 yds to the WMU 36
98.7%
+0.3
Q4 10:51
Brady Jones pass complete to Cole Cabana for no gain to the WMU 36
98.7%
0.0
Q4 10:33
Brady Jones pass complete to Terence Marshall for 13 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST down
98.7%
0.0
Q4 9:51
Brady Jones run for 6 yds to the URI 45
98.7%
0.0
Q4 9:10
Tre' Hartwell run for no gain to the URI 45
98.7%
0.0
Q4 7:35
PENALTY WMU False Start (Krause,Jacob) 5 yards from URI45 to URI50. NO PLAY.
98.7%
0.0
Q4 7:27
Brady Jones run for 13 yds to the URI 37 for a 1ST down
98.7%
0.0
Q4 7:27
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 07:27
98.7%
0.0
Q4 7:11
Brady Jones run for 4 yds to the URI 33
98.7%
0.0
Q4 7:00
Tre' Hartwell run for 3 yds to the URI 30
98.7%
0.0
Q4 6:19
Tre' Hartwell run for 2 yds to the URI 28
98.7%
0.0
Q4 5:43
Timeout Rhode Island, clock 05:43
98.8%
+0.1
Q4 5:35
Brady Jones pass intercepted Andre DePina-Gray return for no gain to the URI 15
98.8%
0.0
URI · Drive 23FUMBLE · 3 plays · 2 yds
Q4 5:25
Devin Farrell pass complete to Antwain Littleton Jr. for 10 yds to the URI 25 for a 1ST down
98.2%
-0.6
Q4 4:51
Devin Farrell pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for no gain to the URI 25
98.3%
+0.1
Q4 4:23
Devin Farrell sacked by Jori Benson for a loss of 8 yards to the URI 17 Devin Farrell fumbled, recovered by WMU Jori Benson , return for 0 yards
98.3%
0.0
WMU · Drive 24FG · 6 plays · 14 yds
Q4 4:11
Tre' Hartwell run for 11 yds to the URI 6 for a 1ST down
98.7%
+0.5
Q4 3:39
Tre' Hartwell run for 1 yd to the URI 5
98.7%
0.0
Q4 2:57
Tre' Hartwell run for 2 yds to the URI 3
98.7%
0.0
Q4 2:57
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 02:57
98.7%
0.0
Q4 2:41
Mark Konecny pass incomplete
98.7%
0.0
Q4 2:36
Hunter Smith 21 yd FG GOOD
98.7%
0.0
URI · Drive 25END OF GAME · 9 plays · 45 yds
Q4 2:36
Hunter Smith kickoff for 64 yds
98.7%
0.0
Q4 2:20
Conner Kenyon pass complete to Connor Finer for 3 yds to the URI 28
98.2%
-0.5
Q4 1:57
Gabe Winowich run for 6 yds to the URI 34
98.2%
0.0
Q4 1:52
Conner Kenyon pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for 12 yds to the URI 46 for a 1ST down
98.2%
0.0
Q4 1:30
Conner Kenyon pass incomplete to Connor Finer
98.2%
0.0
Q4 1:22
Gabe Winowich run for 2 yds to the URI 48
98.2%
0.0
Q4 0:49
Gabe Winowich run for 8 yds to the WMU 44 for a 1ST down
98.2%
0.0
Q4 0:25
Gabe Winowich run for 2 yds to the WMU 42
98.2%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Conner Kenyon pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for 12 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST down
98.2%
-0.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 13:49
Antwain Littleton Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Garth White KICK)
-15.2
TD · Q2 7:59
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 10 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q2 13:35
Broc Lowry run for 4 yds for a TD Rhode Island Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ayinde Johnson) declined (Palmer Domschke KICK)
+11.5
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com