Northern Iowa

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Northern Iowa allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

1. L
   NEB
2. L
   HAW

Bars above the line: better than expected for Northern Iowa.

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Northern Iowa's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at NEBQ4 9:04 4th & 3 at UNI 48, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

Expected wins adds up Northern Iowa's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   NEB
2. L

   HAW

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Northern Iowa's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.25
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.05

Game by game

• NEBL 3-34 at NEB2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −4
• HAWL 7-36 at HAW18% → 0%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −22

Points of win probability, from Northern Iowa's side.

Closest call

UNI 25-20 ISU (2016) - Northern Iowa dropped to a 19.2% win probability before pulling it out.