Northern Iowa
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2014
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Northern Iowa allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Northern Iowa.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Northern Iowa's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at IOWAQ4 10:33 4th & 2 at midfield, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.3 pts
- at HAWQ3 5:38 4th & 1 at UNI 29, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.8 pts
- at HAWQ2 3:12 4th & 4 at HAW 34, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
- at IOWAQ3 15:00 4th & 4 at IOWA 33, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
- at HAWQ2 9:38 4th & 6 at HAW 38, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
- at HAWQ2 5:37 4th & 6 at HAW 44, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
- at HAWQ1 5:27 4th & 3 at UNI 29, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at HAWQ4 3:14 4th & 10 at HAW 44, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
Every call this season (21)
- Q1 11:384th & 16 at IOWA 19, down 7 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 7:204th & 9 at IOWA 37, down 4 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 2:444th & 14 at IOWA 44, down 4 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:174th & 15 at IOWA 20, down 4 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 15:004th & 4 at IOWA 33, down 4 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 10:334th & 2 at midfield, down 1 · Punted−3.3 pts
- Q4 3:054th & 17 at IOWA 47, down 8 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 15:004th & 5 at UNI 26, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 5:274th & 3 at UNI 29, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q2 15:004th & 12 at midfield, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:424th & 5 at UNI 30, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 9:384th & 6 at HAW 38, down 3 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 5:374th & 6 at HAW 44, down 10 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 3:124th & 4 at HAW 34, down 10 · Punted−2.0 pts
- Q3 13:274th & 14 at UNI 14, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 9:384th & 11 at UNI 16, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 5:384th & 1 at UNI 29, down 7 · Punted−2.8 pts
- Q3 1:344th & 7 at UNI 4, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 10:424th & 9 at UNI 20, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 8:444th & 9 at UNI 36, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 3:144th & 10 at HAW 44, down 10 · Went for itClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2014
Expected wins adds up Northern Iowa's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2014
Every game starts at Northern Iowa's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.47
- Timeouts−0.03
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.07
Game by game
- IOWAL 23-31 at IOWA8% → 3%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −14, Timeouts −1
- HAWL 24-27 at HAW43% → 5%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −38: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −2
Points of win probability, from Northern Iowa's side.
Closest call
UNI 25-20 ISU (2016) - Northern Iowa dropped to a 19.2% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2014
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Northern Iowa's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2014
The largest single-play change in Northern Iowa's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Northern Iowa's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Northern Iowa's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Northern Iowa's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Northern Iowa's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.