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UNI

Northern Iowa 7 at Iowa State 31

ISU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadUNI aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreUNI score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:38 · Joel Lanning run for no gain to the IowSt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:57: Aaron Bailey pass complete to Savon Huggins for 19 yds for a TD, (Michael Schmadeke KICK) — UNI win probability +6.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UNI has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:28: Bundrage, Quenton rush for 13 yards to the UNI25 (Jennings, D.), PENALTY ISU illegal block (Montgomery, D'Vario) 3 yards to the UNI35, NO PLAY. — ISU win probability +3.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:44: Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +5.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:05: Dondre Daley 36 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick) — ISU win probability +9.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:03: Allen Lazard 13 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick) — ISU win probability +7.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UNI made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00UNI 4th & 5 at UNI 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:28ISU 4th & 11 at UNI 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:28UNI 4th & 2 at ISU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:19ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:08UNI 4th & 5 at UNI 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ISU 4th & 9 at UNI 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:39ISU 4th & 13 at UNI 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:39UNI 4th & 22 at UNI 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:40ISU 4th & 3 at UNI 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:19UNI 4th & 17 at ISU 41, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:30UNI 4th & 4 at UNI 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:24UNI 4th & 9 at UNI 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:10UNI 4th & 23 at UNI 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−3.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UNI 4th & 4 at ISU 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−1.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:34ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 49, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:08UNI 4th & 4 at UNI 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:28ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:47UNI 4th & 9 at UNI 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:27ISU 4th & 7 at UNI 46, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:00UNI 4th & 6 at UNI 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:55UNI 4th & 7 at UNI 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNI made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:57UNI Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:44ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:05ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:03ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNIDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.2%
NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, delay of game (Aaron Bailey) to the NIowa 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
77.2%
Aaron Bailey run for 1 yd to the NIowa 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-3
77.2%
Tyvis Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIowa 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+17
77.2%
Aaron Bailey run for 17 yds to the NIowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
77.2%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Daurice Fountain for a loss of 3 yards to the NIowa 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-3
77.2%
Charles Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIowa 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+11
77.2%
Aaron Bailey run for 11 yds to the NIowa 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
77.2%
Logan Bieghler punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:0977% → 75%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
76.5%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Isaac Ales for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 23Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+34
76.4%
Tyler Brown run for 34 yds to the NIowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
76.8%
Tyler Brown run for 2 yds to the NIowa 41Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
76.8%
Tyler Brown run for 1 yd to the NIowa 40Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+8
76.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds to the NIowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
76.8%
Tyler Brown run for 13 yds to the NIowa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
76.8%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the NIowa 18Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
76.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 9
OPP 18
-2
76.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Tyler Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the NIowa 20Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
75.4%
Cole Netten 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
75.1%
Tyvis Smith run for 18 yds to the NIowa 40 Tyvis Smith fumbled, forced by Nigel Tribune, recovered by NIowa Daurice Fountain for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
74.8%
Aaron Bailey run for 3 yds to the NIowa 43Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
74.6%
Savon Huggins run for 3 yds to the NIowa 46Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
74.7%
Aaron Bailey run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
50
-1
74.5%
Aaron Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 49Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
74.8%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Charles Brown, broken up by Jomal WiltzSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 11
OWN 49
-5
75.0%
NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, delay of game (Aaron Bailey) to the NIowa 44Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+14
75.1%
Aaron Bailey run for 14 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
74.9%
Logan Bieghler punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
74.4%
Richardson, Sam B. pass complete to Lazard, Allen for 5 yards to the ISU25 (Jennings, D.), PENALTY UNI pass interference (Jennings, D.) 7 yards to the ISU27, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
74.5%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+1
74.5%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+2
74.2%
Sam B. Richardson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+4
74.0%
Colin Downing punt for 57 yds , Darrian Miller returns for 4 yds to the NIowa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
73.3%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Daurice FountainSimilar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-1
73.4%
Savon Huggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 13Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 11
OWN 13
-5
73.8%
NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NIowa 8Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 16
OWN 8
+11
73.9%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Darrian Miller for 11 yds to the NIowa 19Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+27
74.0%
Logan Bieghler punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIowa 42 , Allen Lazard returns for 27 yds to the NIowa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3775% → 73%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
74.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 7 yds to the NIowa 35Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
75.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-6
74.6%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Karter Schult for a loss of 6 yards to the NIowa 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
73.2%
Holden Kramer punt for 28 yds, downed at the NIowa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 7TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 2:5427% → 36%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
72.6%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Darrian Miller for 6 yds to the NIowa 19Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+32
72.5%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Darrian Miller for 32 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
71.2%
Tyvis Smith run for no gain to the IowSt 49Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
71.4%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Darrian Miller for 10 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
71.2%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Tyvis Smith for 4 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+12
70.8%
Aaron Bailey run for 12 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
70.8%
Tyvis Smith run for 14 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
70.8%
Smith, Tyvis rush for 2 yards to the ISU7 (Harris, Jordan), PENALTY UNI holding (Rathje, Robert) 10 yards to the ISU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+19
63.9%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Savon Huggins for 19 yds for a TD, (Michael Schmadeke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 12 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
66.4%
Thomas, Joshua rush for no gain to the ISU37 (Farley, Jared;Ales, Isaac), PENALTY ISU holding (Philbert, Jaypee) 10 yards to the ISU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+7
65.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 7 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+3
65.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 3 yds Quenton Bundrage fumbled, forced by De'Angelo Jennings, recovered by NIowa Jared FarleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 9INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
63.3%
Darrian Miller run for 2 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+24
63.4%
Aaron Bailey pass intercepted Dale Pierson return for 24 yds to the NIowa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:4467% → 73%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
67.0%
Bundrage, Quenton rush for 13 yards to the UNI25 (Jennings, D.), PENALTY ISU illegal block (Montgomery, D'Vario) 3 yards to the UNI35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 13
OPP 35
+19
67.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Tyler Brown for 19 yds to the NIowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
67.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 15 yds to the NIowa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.8%
Joshua Thomas run for no gain to the NIowa 1Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.8%
Joshua Thomas run for no gain to the NIowa 1Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.1%
Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12MISSED FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5974% → 71%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
73.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-1
73.8%
Sam B. Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 30 Sam B. Richardson fumbled, forced by Deiondre' Hall, recovered by IowSt Tyler BrownSimilar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 20
OPP 30
+7
71.9%
Sam B. Richardson run for 7 yds to the NIowa 23Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+41
70.5%
Cole Netten 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
68.5%
Savon Huggins run for a loss of 4 yards to the NIowa 19Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 14
OWN 19
0
68.8%
Aaron Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 14
OWN 19
-8
69.5%
Aaron Bailey sacked by Dale Pierson for a loss of 8 yards to the NIowa 11Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 22
OWN 11
+26
70.2%
Logan Bieghler punt for 41 yds , Allen Lazard returns for 26 yds to the NIowa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:3373% → 73%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
73.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Mike Warren for 1 yd to the NIowa 25Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
73.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 5 yds to the NIowa 20Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-15
72.6%
Richardson, Sam B. rush for 3 yards to the UNI17 (Farley, Jared;Jennings, D.), PENALTY ISU illegal block (Warren, Mike) 15 yards to the UNI35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+22
71.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 22 yds to the NIowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
74.2%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the NIowa 7Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+1
74.2%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the NIowa 6Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
71.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
72.9%
Cole Netten 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 2:1628% → 28%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
72.1%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Daurice FountainSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
72.4%
Savon Huggins run for 1 yd to the NIowa 24Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+10
73.2%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Logan Cunningham for 10 yds to the NIowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
71.5%
Aaron Bailey run for 7 yds to the NIowa 41Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+10
70.1%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Logan Cunningham for 10 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
69.6%
Aaron Bailey run for 15 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
68.7%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Savon HugginsSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
68.8%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Charles Brown, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-7
68.3%
Aaron Bailey sacked by Jarnor Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
71.7%
Logan Bieghler punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
72.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
72.1%
Tyler Brown run for 6 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
73.8%
Tyler Brown run for 4 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
73.8%
Tyler Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+8
72.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 8 yds to the NIowa 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-4
73.7%
Sam E. Richardson sacked by Brett McMakin for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 47
-4
71.1%
Colin Downing punt for 42 yds , Deiondre' Hall returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NIowa 7 Deiondre' Hall fumbled, recovered by NIowa Deiondre' HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
71.5%
NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the NIowa 4Similar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+1
71.5%
Darrian Miller run for 1 yd to the NIowa 5Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+1
71.8%
Aaron Bailey run for 1 yd to the NIowa 6Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+7
72.8%
Aaron Bailey run for 7 yds to the NIowa 13Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
73.3%
Logan Bieghler punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIowa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:4375% → 84%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
74.6%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the NIowa 36Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+36
84.3%
Dondre Daley 36 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:3917% → 14%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
83.0%
Tyvis Smith run for 3 yds to the NIowa 6Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+8
83.1%
Aaron Bailey run for 8 yds to the NIowa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
82.7%
Aaron Bailey run for no gain to the NIowa 14Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
84.9%
Aaron Bailey run for 4 yds to the NIowa 18Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-9
85.2%
Bailey, Aaron rush for 26 yards to the UNI44, out-of-bounds (Cotton-Moya, Kamari), PENALTY UNI holding (Rathje, Robert) 9 yards to the UNI9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 15
OWN 9
+6
86.0%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Tyvis Smith for 6 yds to the NIowa 15Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+13
85.7%
Logan Bieghler punt for 49 yds , Allen Lazard returns for 13 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 51 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
86.5%
Sam E. Richardson sacked by Karter Schult for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+5
85.8%
Joshua Thomas run for 5 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+24
85.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 9 yds to the IOWAST 42 for a 1ST down NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, roughing passer (Isaac Ales) to the NIowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
87.2%
Joshua Thomas run for 4 yds to the NIowa 23Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+22
87.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 22 yds Quenton Bundrage fumbled, recovered by NIowaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
86.0%
Aaron Bailey sacked by Dale Pierson for a loss of 8 yards to the NIowa 12Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+1
86.2%
Aaron Bailey run for 1 yd to the NIowa 13 NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 17
OWN 13
-6
86.8%
Aaron Bailey sacked by Demond Tucker for a loss of 6 yards to the NIowa 7Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 23
OWN 7
+34
87.7%
Logan Bieghler punt for 50 yds , Allen Lazard returns for 34 yds to the NIowa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:0589% → 96%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
88.5%
Tyler Brown run for 3 yds to the NIowa 20Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+7
88.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Carson Epps for 7 yds to the NIowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
95.8%
Allen Lazard 13 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 1:035% → 5%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.6%
Aaron Bailey run for 12 yds to the NIowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
94.3%
Tyvis Smith run for 2 yds to the NIowa 39Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
94.3%
Tyvis Smith run for 1 yd to the NIowa 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
94.6%
Bailey, Aaron pass incomplete to Fountain, D., PENALTY ISU pass interference (Tribune, Nigel) 15 yards to the ISU45, 1ST DOWN UNI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
94.4%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Charles Brown for 9 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-5
94.2%
NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, false start (Jacob Rathmacher) to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
94.4%
Savon Huggins run for 2 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
94.5%
Aaron Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 39
-2
94.6%
Aaron Bailey sacked by Dale Pierson for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
96.7%
Tyler Brown run for 4 yds to the IowSt 45 Tyler Brown fumbled, forced by Deiondre' Hall, recovered by IowSt Oni OmoileSimilar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
96.7%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Quenton Bundrage, broken up by Edwin YoungSimilar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+4
96.7%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 4 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
96.4%
Colin Downing punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Darrian Miller at the NIowa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
95.9%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Sam Rohr for 8 yds to the NIowa 18Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+9
95.8%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Braden Lehman for 9 yds to the NIowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.8%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Sam RohrSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
95.9%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Charles Brown for 6 yds to the NIowa 33Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
95.7%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Daurice FountainSimilar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+9
95.8%
Logan Bieghler punt for 51 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 9 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.8%
Tyler Brown run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
96.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 11 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.1%
Tyler Brown run for no gain to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
97.0%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
97.0%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
96.8%
Colin Downing punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Logan Cunningham at the NIowa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
96.7%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Rod Hall for 2 yds to the NIowa 28Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-1
96.5%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass complete to Darrian Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 27Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
96.8%
Sawyer Kollmorgen pass incomplete to Braden LehmanSimilar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+1
96.8%
Logan Bieghler punt for 45 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 1 yd to the IowSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
97.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Mike Warren for 22 yds to the NIowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
97.7%
Joshua Thomas run for 1 yd to the NIowa 48Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
97.7%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Joshua ThomasSimilar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+2
97.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 2 yds to the NIowa 46Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
97.4%
Colin Downing punt for 25 yds , Logan Cunningham returns for no gain to the NIowa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 30PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:162% → 1%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
97.8%
Michael Malloy run for 5 yds to the NIowa 26Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+6
97.6%
Eli Dunne pass complete to Michael Malloy for 6 yds to the NIowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.6%
Eli Dunne run for no gain to the NIowa 32Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
97.7%
Eli Dunne pass complete to Charles Brown for 4 yds to the NIowa 36Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
97.7%
Eli Dunne pass incomplete to Braden Lehman, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+81
99.5%
Logan Bieghler punt for 45 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 81 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 31PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.5%
Eli Dunne pass incomplete to Darrian MillerSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+13
99.5%
Eli Dunne pass complete to Sam Rohr for 13 yds to the NIowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
99.5%
Eli Dunne sacked by Reggan Northrup for a loss of 7 yards to the NIowa 24Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 17
OWN 24
+5
99.5%
Eli Dunne pass complete to Michael Malloy for 15 yds to the NIowa 39 NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, illegal block (Rod Hall) to the NIowa 29Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+5
99.5%
Eli Dunne run for 5 yds to the NIowa 34Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Eli Dunne pass incomplete to Daurice FountainSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+2
99.5%
Sam Kuhter punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 5 , Trever Ryen returns for 2 yds to the IowSt 36 IOWA ST Penalty, illegal block (5 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
99.8%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the IowSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:05
Dondre Daley 36 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)
+9.8
TD · Q3 1:03
Allen Lazard 13 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)
+7.3
TD · Q2 11:57
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Savon Huggins for 19 yds for a TD, (Michael Schmadeke KICK)
-6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com