Missouri State

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Missouri State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

1. L
   MEM
2. L
   ARST

Bars above the line: better than expected for Missouri State.

Players, 2015

1. Breck RuddickQB17 plays · +0.148 pts/play
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08
2. Brodie LambertQB6 plays · +0.198 pts/play
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03

By position group

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Missouri State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Missouri State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MEMQ2 13:38 4th & 16 at MEM 34, down 35Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts
2. at ARSTQ2 13:58 4th & 5 at ARST 40, down 28Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
3. at ARSTQ1 2:06 4th & 1 at MOST 34, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
4. at ARSTQ4 11:16 4th & 2 at ARST 48, down 56Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
5. at MEMQ2 2:32 4th & 2 at MOST 33, down 42Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
6. at MEMQ4 11:34 4th & 3 at MOST 25, down 49Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
7. at ARSTQ2 0:09 4th & 6 at ARST 49, down 42Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

Expected wins adds up Missouri State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MEM
2. L

   ARST

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at Missouri State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.35
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04

Game by game

• MEML 7-63 at MEM25% → 0%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −27
• ARSTL 7-70 at ARST6% → 0%Before kickoff −44 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −8

Points of win probability, from Missouri State's side.

Closest call

MOST 22-20 MTSU (2025) - Missouri State dropped to a 4.4% win probability before pulling it out.