MOST
Missouri State 22 at Middle Tennessee 20
MTSU2025 · Week 7 · Oct 8, 2025 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadMOST aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
MTSU · Drive 1FG · 10 plays · 38 yds
Q1 15:00
Yousef Obeid kickoff
13.1%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Jekail Middlebrook run for 12 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST down
14.9%
+1.8
Q1 14:38
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 47 Middle Tennessee Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MTSU 37
15.6%
+0.6
Q1 14:16
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 4 yds to the MTSU 41
15.2%
-0.3
Q1 13:44
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 15 yds to the MOST 44
15.6%
+0.3
Q1 13:05
Jekail Middlebrook run for 16 yds to the MOST 28 for a 1ST down
15.9%
+0.4
Q1 12:42
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MOST 28
16.3%
+0.3
Q1 12:09
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MOST 28
16.3%
0.0
Q1 11:29
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MOST 27
16.1%
-0.1
Q1 10:42
Jacob Hathaway 45 Yd Field Goal
19.0%
+2.8
MOST · Drive 2PUNT · 6 plays · 6 yds
Q1 10:42
Baylen Woodman kickoff for 63 yds , Dash Luke return for 23 yds to the MOST 25
18.6%
-0.3
Q1 10:32
Shomari Lawrence run for 10 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST down
16.9%
-1.7
Q1 10:04
Deuce Bailey sacked by Reggie Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the MOST 26
16.9%
0.0
Q1 9:27
Shomari Lawrence run for 5 yds to the MOST 31
17.1%
+0.2
Q1 8:53
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Ramone Green Jr.
16.8%
-0.2
Q1 8:43
Stewart McDonald punt for 47 yds
16.8%
0.0
MTSU · Drive 3Uncategorized · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q1 8:35
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for no gain to the MTSU 22 Middle Tennessee Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 17
18.6%
+1.7
Q1 8:17
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTSU 19
18.8%
+0.3
Q1 7:42
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 11 yds to the MTSU 30
18.8%
0.0
Q1 6:58
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Cam'ron Lacy, broken up by Ryan Williams
18.8%
0.0
Q1 6:53
Ashton Logan punt for 36 yds
18.4%
-0.4
MTSU · Drive 4FUMBLE · 3 plays · 6 yds
Q2 13:33
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 6 yds to the MTSU 37
20.3%
+1.9
Q2 13:06
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 37
20.6%
+0.3
Q2 12:23
run for a loss of 13 yards to the MTSU 24 fumbled, recovered by MOST Jalen Brooks
20.6%
0.0
MOST · Drive 5TD · 3 plays · 24 yds
Q2 12:17
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Dash Luke
17.0%
-3.6
Q2 12:10
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Dash Luke for 19 yds to the MTSU 5 for a 1ST down
17.0%
0.0
Q2 11:27
Deuce Bailey 5 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid PAT failed)
10.0%
-7.0
MTSU · Drive 6TD · 4 plays · 82 yds
Q2 11:27
Yousef Obeid kickoff for 59 yds , DJ Taylor return for 12 yds to the MTSU 18
10.7%
+0.7
Q2 11:17
Jekail Middlebrook run for 18 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST down
13.8%
+3.1
Q2 10:42
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 12 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST down
15.8%
+2.0
Q2 10:06
Cam'ron Lacy 52 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)
26.7%
+10.8
MOST · Drive 7TD · 11 plays · 79 yds
Q2 10:06
Baylen Woodman kickoff for 64 yds , Dash Luke return for 20 yds to the MOST 21
25.8%
-0.8
Q2 9:57
Deuce Bailey pass complete to James BlackStrain for 1 yd to the MOST 22
21.7%
-4.1
Q2 9:22
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to James BlackStrain, broken up by Damonte Smith
21.7%
0.0
Q2 9:16
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Isaiah McMorris for 13 yds to the MOST 35 Middle Tennessee Penalty, personal foul (Kalen Woods) to the 50 yard line
21.7%
0.0
Q2 8:37
Deuce Bailey run for 7 yds to the MTSU 43
20.2%
-1.5
Q2 8:01
Shomari Lawrence run for 5 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST down
20.5%
+0.3
Q2 7:41
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Jeron Askren for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 39
20.2%
-0.3
Q2 7:01
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Ronnel Johnson, broken up by Muaaz Byard
20.2%
0.0
Q2 6:54
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 17 yds to the MTSU 22 for a 1ST down
20.2%
0.0
Q2 6:06
Ramone Green Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTSU 20
21.4%
+1.2
Q2 5:29
Ronnel Johnson 20 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Yousef Obeid Kick)
10.9%
-10.5
MTSU · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q2 5:29
Yousef Obeid kickoff for 40 yds
11.7%
+0.8
Q2 5:24
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 5 yds to the MTSU 40
13.9%
+2.2
Q2 5:02
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 3 yds to the MTSU 43
15.7%
+1.7
Q2 4:21
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Thomas Anderson for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 40 Middle Tennessee Penalty, illegal formation (Yards) to the MTSU 40
15.6%
0.0
Q2 3:53
Ashton Logan punt for 53 yds
15.6%
0.0
MOST · Drive 9FG · 8 plays · 71 yds
Q2 3:45
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Makai Cope for 14 yds to the MOST 21 for a 1ST down
13.1%
-2.6
Q2 3:16
Shomari Lawrence run for 6 yds to the MOST 27
13.1%
0.0
Q2 2:31
Deuce Bailey run for 4 yds to the MOST 31 for a 1ST down
13.2%
+0.1
Q2 1:56
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 42 yds to the MTSU 27 for a 1ST down
13.1%
-0.1
Q2 1:33
Deuce Bailey run for 8 yds to the MTSU 19
11.8%
-1.4
Q2 1:16
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Tristian Gardner, broken up by De'Arre McDonald
11.8%
0.0
Q2 1:12
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 22
11.8%
0.0
Q2 1:05
Yousef Obeid 39 Yd Field Goal
9.2%
-2.6
MTSU · Drive 10FG · 9 plays · 56 yds
Q2 1:05
Yousef Obeid kickoff for 59 yds , DJ Taylor return for 15 yds to the MTSU 21
9.5%
+0.3
Q2 0:55
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 12 yds to the MTSU 33 for a 1ST down
11.8%
+2.3
Q2 0:45
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 12 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST down
11.8%
0.0
Q2 0:31
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae Cox, broken up by Jordan Dunbar
12.2%
+0.4
Q2 0:28
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MTSU 49
12.0%
-0.2
Q2 0:19
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 14 yds to the MOST 37 for a 1ST down
12.2%
+0.2
Q2 0:12
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter Tipton
13.1%
+0.9
Q2 0:07
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 14 yds to the MOST 23 for a 1ST down
13.0%
-0.1
Q2 0:00
Jacob Hathaway 40 Yd Field Goal
16.9%
+3.9
MOST · Drive 11FG · 6 plays · 80 yds
Q3 15:00
Baylen Woodman kickoff for 58 yds , Dash Luke return for 5 yds to the MOST 12
15.5%
-1.4
Q3 14:50
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 76 yds to the MTSU 12 for a 1ST down
12.5%
-3.0
Q3 14:26
Shomari Lawrence run for 4 yds to the MTSU 8
11.7%
-0.8
Q3 13:51
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 9
11.7%
0.0
Q3 13:13
Deuce Bailey run for 1 yd to the MTSU 8
12.4%
+0.8
Q3 12:33
Yousef Obeid 25 Yd Field Goal
9.1%
-3.4
MTSU · Drive 12DOWNS · 10 plays · 37 yds
Q3 12:33
Stewart McDonald kickoff for 61 yds
9.4%
+0.4
Q3 12:31
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 7 yds to the MTSU 32
12.4%
+3.0
Q3 12:00
Jekail Middlebrook run for 6 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST down
12.4%
0.0
Q3 11:30
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 9 yds Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by MTSU
12.6%
+0.2
Q3 11:11
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to AJ Jones
13.0%
+0.4
Q3 11:08
Jekail Middlebrook run for 7 yds to the MOST 46 for a 1ST down
12.9%
-0.1
Q3 10:43
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 4 yds to the MOST 42
13.5%
+0.5
Q3 10:05
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter Tipton
16.0%
+2.6
Q3 9:54
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kason Stokes for 4 yds to the MOST 38
15.9%
-0.1
Q3 9:27
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Kason Stokes, broken up by Jordan Dunbar
15.9%
0.0
MOST · Drive 13PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q3 9:20
Shomari Lawrence run for 7 yds to the MOST 45
9.5%
-6.4
Q3 8:41
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Connor Lair
8.6%
-0.8
Q3 8:36
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Brendon McQueen, broken up by Anthony Bynum
8.6%
0.0
Q3 8:30
Stewart McDonald punt for 55 yds
8.7%
+0.1
MTSU · Drive 14PUNT · 6 plays · 11 yds
Q3 8:20
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 5 yds to the MTSU 25
13.3%
+4.6
Q3 7:56
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 6 yds to the MTSU 31 for a 1ST down
13.3%
0.0
Q3 7:23
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter Tipton
13.3%
0.0
Q3 7:16
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Myles Butler, broken up by Christian Ford
13.3%
0.0
Q3 7:11
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail Middlebrook, broken up by Jalen Brooks
13.3%
0.0
Q3 7:02
Ashton Logan punt for 49 yds
12.3%
-1.0
MOST · Drive 15FUMBLE · 6 plays · 30 yds
Q3 6:49
Deuce Bailey pass complete to James BlackStrain for 11 yds to the MOST 31 for a 1ST down
7.9%
-4.4
Q3 6:24
Shomari Lawrence run for 10 yds to the MOST 41 for a 1ST down
7.9%
0.0
Q3 5:56
Shomari Lawrence run for 2 yds to the MOST 43
7.3%
-0.6
Q3 5:11
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to James BlackStrain
7.3%
0.0
Q3 5:00
Deuce Bailey run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line
7.3%
0.0
Q3 4:14
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 49 Deuce Bailey fumbled, recovered by MOST Deuce Bailey
7.4%
+0.1
MTSU · Drive 16DOWNS · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q3 4:05
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Evan Poticher for 5 yds to the MOST 44
13.3%
+5.9
Q3 3:28
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the MOST 40
13.3%
0.0
Q3 3:02
Middle Tennessee Penalty, false start (Mateo Guevara) to the MOST 44
13.7%
+0.4
Q3 2:38
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MOST 43
13.2%
-0.5
Q3 1:56
Jekail Middlebrook run for 1 yd to the MOST 42
13.5%
+0.3
MOST · Drive 17PUNT · 4 plays · -9 yds
Q3 1:52
Deuce Bailey sacked by Anthony Bynum for a loss of 20 yards to the MOST 22 Deuce Bailey fumbled, recovered by MOST Jeron Askren , return for 0 yards
7.3%
-6.2
Q3 0:58
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete
7.7%
+0.4
Q3 0:54
Deuce Bailey run for 11 yds to the MOST 33
7.7%
0.0
Q3 0:14
Stewart McDonald punt for 39 yds
7.7%
0.0
MTSU · Drive 18TD · 13 plays · 72 yds
Q3 0:08
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 11 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST down
12.3%
+4.6
Q4 14:58
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 10 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST down
12.5%
+0.2
Q4 14:26
Jekail Middlebrook run for 5 yds to the MOST 46
14.2%
+1.7
Q4 13:42
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 4 yds to the MOST 42
13.4%
-0.8
Q4 13:09
Jekail Middlebrook run for 3 yds to the MOST 39 for a 1ST down
13.9%
+0.5
Q4 12:34
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Dylan Dixson for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 40 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ryan Williams) to the MOST 25 for a 1ST down
13.9%
0.0
Q4 12:08
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail Middlebrook
13.9%
0.0
Q4 12:02
Jekail Middlebrook run for 3 yds to the MOST 22
13.9%
0.0
Q4 11:20
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Cooper Roy for 0 yards to the MOST 22 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Mitchell Toney) to the MOST 11 for a 1ST down
12.7%
-1.2
Q4 11:05
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 13
12.7%
0.0
Q4 10:30
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MOST 13 Middle Tennessee Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Kanye Young) to the MOST 13
12.7%
0.0
Q4 9:52
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 3 yds to the MOST 10
12.3%
-0.4
Q4 9:12
Cam'ron Lacy 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)
35.8%
-28.8
MOST · Drive 19FG · 11 plays · 56 yds
Q4 9:12
Baylen Woodman kickoff for 58 yds , Dash Luke return for 25 yds to the MOST 32
64.6%
+52.3
Q4 9:01
Shomari Lawrence run for 4 yds to the MOST 36
58.5%
+22.7
Q4 8:26
Deuce Bailey run for 7 yds to the MOST 43 for a 1ST down
58.7%
+0.2
Q4 7:56
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Jeron Askren
58.7%
0.0
Q4 7:47
Deuce Bailey sacked by Brandon Buckner for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 39
58.7%
0.0
Q4 7:13
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Middle Tennessee Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Korey Smith) to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST down
59.9%
+1.2
Q4 6:37
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 20 yds Deuce Bailey fumbled, recovered by MOST Cash Hudson for a 1ST down
58.6%
-1.3
Q4 5:36
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 18
61.3%
+2.7
Q4 5:10
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to James BlackStrain, broken up by De'Arre McDonald
62.1%
+0.8
Q4 5:04
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Dash Luke for 6 yds to the MTSU 12
61.6%
-0.5
Q4 4:19
Yousef Obeid 29 Yd Field Goal
15.1%
-46.5
MTSU · Drive 20MISSED FG · 10 plays · 44 yds
Q4 4:19
Stewart McDonald kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
7.8%
-7.4
Q4 4:16
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 19 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST down
14.0%
+6.2
Q4 3:49
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the MTSU 48
13.3%
-0.7
Q4 3:17
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
13.3%
0.0
Q4 2:38
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 5 yds to the MOST 45 for a 1ST down
22.9%
+9.6
Q4 2:04
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MOST 45 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tim Brantley Jr.) to the MOST 30 for a 1ST down
23.3%
+0.4
Q4 1:57
Jekail Middlebrook run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 31
24.0%
+0.8
Q4 1:54
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MOST 31
24.0%
0.0
Q4 1:50
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for no gain to the MOST 31
23.8%
-0.2
Q4 1:03
Jacob Hathaway 50 yd FG MISSED
19.5%
-4.4
MOST · Drive 21Uncategorized · 3 plays · -8 yds
Q4 0:56
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 27
11.2%
-8.3
Q4 0:53
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 23
11.2%
0.0
Q4 0:17
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 5 yards to the MOST 23
7.5%
-3.7
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:12
Baylen Woodman kickoff for 58 yds , Dash Luke return for 25 yds to the MOST 32
+52.3
FG · Q4 4:19
Yousef Obeid 29 Yd Field Goal
-46.5
TD · Q4 9:12
Cam'ron Lacy 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)
-28.8