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MOST

Missouri State 7 at Arkansas State 70

ARST
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadMOST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreMOST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:05 · Chris Sullens punt for 50 yds , Chris Murray returns for 29 yds to the MoSt 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior+23.9Home team on offense+32.9Score differential+25.8Blowout margin+14.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.8Garbage-time factor+6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:00: Brodie Lambert pass intercepted for a TD Khari Lain return for 44 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK) — ARST win probability +0.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:06: Michael Gordon run for 26 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK) — ARST win probability +1.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:02: Warren Wand run for 26 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:43: James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 49 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK) — MOST win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 7:34: Johnston White run for 56 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK) — ARST win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MOST made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00MOST 4th & 16 at MOST 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:20MOST 4th & 4 at MOST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:02ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:00MOST 4th & 2 at MOST 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:12ARST 4th & 1 at MOST 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%−0.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:12ARST 4th & 4 at MOST 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:06MOST 4th & 1 at MOST 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:58MOST 4th & 5 at ARST 40, down 28
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:42MOST 4th & 8 at ARST 22, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:42ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 30, up 42
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:30MOST 4th & 19 at MOST 16, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:58ARST 4th & 3 at MOST 42, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:09MOST 4th & 6 at ARST 49, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:05MOST 4th & 7 at MOST 28, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:55MOST 4th & 7 at ARST 49, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:16MOST 4th & 2 at ARST 48, down 56
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10MOST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:25ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:00ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:06ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:02ARST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:43ARST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:34ARST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:02ARST Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:05ARST Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:32ARST Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:00MOST Touchdown, down 57 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:24ARST Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MOSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
94.1%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Eri Christophel for 9 yards to the MSU30 (Lain, Khari), PENALTY MSU pass interference (Zac Hoover) 10 yards to the MSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 11
-2
94.1%
Calan Crowder run for a loss of 2 yards to the MoSt 9Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 9
+4
94.1%
Calan Crowder run for 4 yds to the MoSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+2
94.1%
Calan Crowder run for 2 yds to the MoSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 15
+34
94.1%
Chris Sullens punt for 47 yds , Chris Murray returns for 34 yds to the MoSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:3094% → 94%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
93.7%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 6 yds to the MoSt 22Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+6
93.7%
James Tabary pass complete to Blake Mack for 6 yds to the MoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
93.8%
James Tabary pass complete to Darion Griswold for 16 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
93.7%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Erik Furmanek for 6 yds to the MoSt 24Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
93.7%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Erik Furmanek for 2 yds to the MoSt 26Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-2
93.7%
Calan Crowder run for a loss of 2 yards to the MoSt 24Similar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
93.8%
Chris Sullens punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
93.7%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the MoSt 46Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
93.7%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-5
93.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
93.6%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
93.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 5INT TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:167% → 6%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.4%
Ryan Heaston run for 6 yds to the MoSt 26Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
93.4%
Ryan Heaston run for 5 yds to the MoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
93.4%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Eric Christophel for 9 yds to the MoSt 40Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+1
93.3%
Ryan Heaston run for 1 yd to the MoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+44
93.7%
Brodie Lambert pass intercepted for a TD Khari Lain return for 44 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.8%
Phoenix Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MoSt 23Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
93.8%
Brodie Lambert run for 4 yds to the MoSt 27Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
93.8%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Willis Chambers for 6 yds to the MoSt 33Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
93.8%
Chris Sullens punt for 32 yds, downed at the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:0694% → 95%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
93.9%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
94.0%
Michael Gordon run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
94.1%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
94.0%
James Tabary pass complete to Johnston White for 4 yds to the MoSt 48Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+6
94.0%
James Tabary pass complete to Warren Wand for 6 yds to the MoSt 42Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+5
93.9%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the MoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
94.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MoSt 42Similar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+4
94.0%
James Tabary pass complete to Darion Griswold for 4 yds to the MoSt 38Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+8
94.1%
James Tabary pass complete to Warren Wand for 8 yds to the MoSt 30Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-1
94.0%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the MoSt 31Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+5
93.9%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the MoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
95.4%
Michael Gordon run for 26 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.3%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Zac Hoover for 1 yd to the MoSt 26Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
95.4%
Brodie Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
95.4%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Malik Earl for 8 yds to the MoSt 34Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
95.3%
Chris Sullens punt for 37 yds, downed at the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:4295% → 98%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
95.3%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
95.4%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
95.5%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
95.6%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 14 yds to the MoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
95.7%
James Tabary pass complete to Warren Leapheart for 20 yds to the MoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
97.8%
Warren Wand run for 26 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
97.7%
Calan Crowder run for 4 yds to the MoSt 28Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+27
97.5%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Malik Earl for 27 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
97.5%
Calan Crowder run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
97.5%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Erik Furmanek for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
97.5%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Calan CrowderSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
97.5%
Chris Sullens punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Chris Murray at the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 1:2198% → 98%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
97.9%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+3
97.9%
Tyler Trosin run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+36
97.8%
Michael Gordon run for 36 yds to the MoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
97.6%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 49 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
98.4%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Malik Earl for 9 yds to the MoSt 37Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+13
98.2%
Jason Randall run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
50
0
98.3%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Zac HooverSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
50
0
98.3%
Brodie Lambert pass intercepted Jamaris Hart return for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:5698% → 99%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
98.1%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+16
98.1%
James Tabary pass complete to JD McKissic for 16 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
98.2%
James Tabary pass complete to Johnston White for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+56
98.9%
Johnston White run for 56 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:451% → 2%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+46
98.9%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Eric Christophel for 46 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.8%
Brodie Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
98.8%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Eric ChristophelSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+2
98.9%
Brodie Lambert run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
98.4%
Shelby Harris 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
98.9%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+6
98.9%
James Tabary pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
98.9%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
98.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 56 yds, downed at the MoSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
99.1%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Deion Holliman for 11 yds to the MoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.1%
Phoenix Johnson run for 1 yd to the MoSt 26Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.1%
Brodie Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
99.1%
Brodie Lambert sacked by Jamaris Hart and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the MoSt 16Similar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
99.1%
Chris Sullens punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MoSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-9
99.3%
James Tabary sacked by Daryl Coburn for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 19
OWN 42
+4
99.3%
James Tabary pass complete to Michael Gordon for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+12
99.3%
James Tabary pass complete to Tres Houston for 12 yds to the MoSt 42Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
99.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MoSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:471% → 1%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
99.3%
Calan Crowder run for 9 yds to the MoSt 15Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+6
99.4%
Calan Crowder run for 6 yds to the MoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
99.3%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Deion Holliman for 26 yds to the MoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.3%
Brodie Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.3%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Erik Furmanek for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
99.3%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Ryan HeastonSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 6
OPP 49
+36
99.3%
Chris Sullens punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 26 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Warren Leapheart) to the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:52100% → 100%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.5%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+18
99.5%
James Tabary pass complete to Warren Leapheart for 18 yds to the MoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
99.5%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the MoSt 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
99.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the MoSt 37Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+4
99.5%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the MoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.5%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the MoSt 25Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
99.5%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the MoSt 24Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+20
99.5%
James Tabary pass complete to Booker Mays for 20 yds to the MoSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.5%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the MoSt 1Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Johnston White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 21INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.8%
Calan Crowder run for 2 yds to the MoSt 14Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+6
99.8%
Brodie Lambert pass intercepted Chris Stone return for 6 yds to the MoSt 3 Chris Stone fumbled, forced by Eric Christophel, recovered by ArkSt Charleston GirleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Johnston White run for 3 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Calan Crowder run for 4 yds to the MoSt 29Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
99.8%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Eric Christophel for a loss of 1 yard to the MoSt 28Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Brodie Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+29
99.8%
Chris Sullens punt for 50 yds , Chris Murray returns for 29 yds to the MoSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
99.7%
James Tabary pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 15 yds to the MoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
99.8%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the MoSt 28Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+6
99.8%
James Tabary pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 6 yds to the MoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
99.8%
James Tabary pass complete to Darion Griswold for 19 yds to the MoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
James Tabary pass complete to Sterling Stowers for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:320% → 0%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Ryan Heaston run for 6 yds to the MoSt 31Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.8%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Richard Darden for 1 yd to the MoSt 32Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Eric Christophel for 4 yds to the MoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Ryan Heaston run for 2 yds to the MoSt 38Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
99.9%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Zac Hoover, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Wagner, Nehemia) 15 yards to the ASU47, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Maddy JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
99.9%
Ryan Heaston run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
99.8%
Ryan Heaston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Brodie Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Ryan Heaston run for 35 yds for a TD, (Shelby Harris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Deion HollimanSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Brodie Lambert run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Brodie Lambert pass incomplete to Willis Chambers, broken up by Cody BrownSimilar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Chris Sullens punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27FUMBLE
12 plays · 69 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
99.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Warren Leapheart) to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
99.9%
Cameron Birse pass complete to Blake Mack for 13 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Logan Moragne run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
99.9%
Logan Moragne run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Birse, Cameron pass incomplete to Moorehead, J. (Vashon Landers), PENALTY MSU offside (Daryl Coburn) 5 yards to the MSU46, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
99.9%
Cameron Birse pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the MoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
99.9%
Logan Moragne run for 7 yds to the MoSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+6
99.9%
Logan Moragne run for 6 yds to the MoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
99.9%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the MoSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+6
99.9%
Logan Moragne run for 6 yds to the MoSt 6 Logan Moragne fumbled, forced by Matt Rush, recovered by MoSt Christian HoffmannSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 28PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
100.0%
Jason Randall run for 6 yds to the MoSt 12Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+8
100.0%
Jason Randall run for 8 yds to the MoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
Brodie Lambert run for 5 yds to the MoSt 25Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
100.0%
Jason Randall run for 8 yds to the MoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Jason Randall run for 7 yds to the MoSt 40Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Jason Randall run for 2 yds to the MoSt 42Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Jason Randall run for 2 yds to the MoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
99.9%
Phoenix Johnson run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Phoenix Johnson run for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Phoenix Johnson run for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Chris Sullens punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chris Murray at the ArkSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
100.0%
DeKeathan Williams run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+6
100.0%
DeKeathan Williams run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
DeKeathan Williams run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
100.0%
DeKeathan Williams run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
100.0%
DeKeathan Williams run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
100.0%
DeKeathan Williams run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+54
100.0%
Logan Moragne run for 54 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
100.0%
Brodie Lambert run for a loss of 5 yards to the MoSt 7Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+31
100.0%
Jason Randall run for 31 yds to the MoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:02
Warren Wand run for 26 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q1 2:06
Michael Gordon run for 26 yds for a TD, (Drew White KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 7:34
Johnston White run for 56 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com