Florida Atlantic

Profile vs. FBS, 2017

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2695th
  Defense+0.0560th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.0%94th
  Defense41.9%51st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2258th
  Defense+1.2148th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2595th
  Defense+0.1030th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3086th
  Defense+0.0282nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.5%92nd
  Defense45.1%65th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense37.0%81st
  Defense35.3%29th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1887th
  Defense3.1520th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.8%84th
  Defense15.5%11th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.3%88th
  Defense15.2%39th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2017

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida Atlantic allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   NAVY
2. L
   WIS
3. W
   BCU
4. L
   BUF
5. W
   MTSU
6. W
   ODU
7. W
   UNT
8. W
   WKU
9. W
   MRSH
10. W
    LT
11. W
    FIU
12. W
    CLT
13. W
    UNT
14. W
    AKR

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida Atlantic.

Players, 2017

1. Jason DriskelQB272 plays · +0.218 pts/play · 71st of 226 QBs
   1.11WAR0.61 to 1.66
2. Devin SingletaryRB245 plays · +0.208 pts/play · 3rd of 352 RBs
   0.95WAR0.70 to 1.19
3. Gregory Howell Jr.RB60 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 175th of 352 RBs
   0.19WAR0.14 to 0.24
4. Willie WrightWR78 plays · +0.092 pts/play · 109th of 426 WRs
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.19
5. Greg JosephPK16 plays · +0.446 pts/play · 33rd of 110 kickers
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.19
6. Daniel ParrQB38 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 200th of 226 QBs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.16
7. Kalib WoodsWR26 plays · +0.151 pts/play · 280th of 426 WRs
   0.07WAR0.05 to 0.10
8. Kamrin SolomonWR34 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 311th of 426 WRs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida Atlantic's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2017

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  47147175th of 130Roster talent: 471, 75th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14014078th of 130Recruiting: 140, 78th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  90%90%7th of 128Returning production: 90%, 7th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +5.1+5.150th of 128SP+ rating: +5.1, 50th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida Atlantic's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and every call that differed was a close one. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at WKUQ4 8:34 4th & 11 at WKU 42, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.7 pts
2. vs UNTQ2 9:56 4th & 4 at UNT 4, up 17Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
3. at WISQ2 6:22 4th & 13 at WIS 21, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts
4. vs MTSUQ2 0:42 4th & 1 at FAU 37, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
5. vs BCUQ2 6:39 4th & 7 at BCU 43, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
6. at BUFQ2 12:06 4th & 6 at BUF 45, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
7. at LTQ1 3:54 4th & 3 at FAU 39, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. at LTQ4 9:51 4th & 3 at FAU 36, up 19Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2017

19th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida Atlantic's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   NAVY
2. L

   WIS
3. W

   BCU
4. L

   BUF
5. W

   MTSU
6. W

   ODU
7. W

   UNT
8. W

   WKU
9. W

   MRSH
10. W

    LT
11. W

    FIU
12. W

    CLT
13. W

    UNT
14. W

    AKR

What moved it, 2017

Every game starts at Florida Atlantic's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.92
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.51

Game by game

• NAVYL 19-42 vs NAVY37% → 1%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −42, Clock −1
• WISL 14-31 at WIS3% → 1%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −6
• BCUW 45-0 vs BCU93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +10
• BUFL 31-34 at BUF54% → 10%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −2
• MTSUW 38-20 vs MTSU61% → 99%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +38: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +1
• ODUW 58-28 at ODU72% → 100%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +35
• UNTW 69-31 vs UNT68% → 100%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +1
• WKUW 42-28 at WKU72% → 98%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +37, Clock +2
• MRSHW 30-25 vs MRSH72% → 95%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +28
• LTW 48-23 at LT69% → 100%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +37
• FIUW 52-24 vs FIU84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +18
• CLTW 31-12 at CLT95% → 99%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +11, Clock +1
• UNTW 41-17 vs UNT84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +20, Possession & field position −1
• AKRW 50-3 vs AKR95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8

Points of win probability, from Florida Atlantic's side.

Closest call

UTEP 31-35 FAU (2016) - Florida Atlantic dropped to a 9.3% win probability before pulling it out.