Florida Atlantic

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1446th
  Defense+0.2710th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.0%52nd
  Defense48.2%9th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1328th
  Defense+1.2144th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0944th
  Defense+0.391st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2458th
  Defense+0.1857th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.4%48th
  Defense52.7%8th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.5%39th
  Defense37.5%14th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1680th
  Defense3.672nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.3%80th
  Defense9.0%1st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense-
  Defense-

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida Atlantic allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   NEB
2. L
   ALA
3. W
   TLSA
4. L
   WYO
5. W
   UTSA
6. L
   FIU
7. W
   WKU
8. L
   MRSH
9. L
   UAB
10. L
    UNT
11. L
    MTSU
12. L
    ODU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida Atlantic.

Players, 2014

1. Jaquez JohnsonQB294 plays · +0.252 pts/play · 70th of 199 QBs
   1.39WAR0.82 to 1.88
2. Lucky WhiteheadWR75 plays · +0.098 pts/play · 135th of 469 WRs
   0.14WAR0.08 to 0.20
3. Dalton SchompP21 plays · +0.287 pts/play · 35th of 94 punters
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.16
4. Jenson StoshakWR33 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 200th of 469 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15
5. Jay WarrenRB78 plays · +0.062 pts/play · 228th of 350 RBs
   0.09WAR0.00 to 0.17
6. Greg Joseph?15 plays · +0.283 pts/play
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.13
7. Greg HowellRB41 plays · +0.087 pts/play · 241st of 350 RBs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.10
8. Kalib WoodsWR14 plays · +0.057 pts/play · 416th of 469 WRs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.04

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida Atlantic's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida Atlantic's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut one accounts for 0.01 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs TLSAQ2 15:00 4th & 1 at FAU 41, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.3 pts
2. vs ODUQ3 10:49 4th & 3 at FAU 47, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.9 pts
3. at WYOQ3 13:22 4th & 4 at WYO 44, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.9 pts
4. at WYOQ1 2:55 4th & 1 at WYO 16, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.7 pts
5. at MRSHQ4 11:13 4th & 4 at MRSH 46, down 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.7 pts
6. at WYOQ2 14:56 4th & 4 at WYO 41, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.6 pts
7. at MRSHQ4 5:51 4th & 8 at MRSH 32, down 12Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)0.4 pts
8. vs ODUQ2 2:24 4th & 7 at FAU 49, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

68th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida Atlantic's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 9 of 12 games; 3 have no play-by-play to score.

1. L

   NEB
2. L

   ALA
3. W

   TLSA
4. L

   WYO
5. W

   UTSA
6. L

   FIU
7. W

   WKU
8. L

   MRSH
9. L

   UAB
10. L

    UNT
11. L

    MTSU
12. L

    ODU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Florida Atlantic's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.32
• Possession & field position−0.10
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.29

Game by game

• NEBL 7-55 at NEB9% → 0%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −11
• ALAL 0-41 at ALA1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
• TLSAW 50-21 vs TLSA45% → 100%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +50, Possession & field position −1
• WYOL 19-20 at WYO44% → 25%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −10, Timeouts −3
• UTSAW 41-37 vs UTSA42% → 74%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +18, Possession & field position −5
• FIUL 10-38 at FIU69% → 0%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −69: Scoreboard −59, Possession & field position +1
• WKUW 45-38 vs WKU39% → 96%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +42, Timeouts +3
• MRSHL 16-35 at MRSH4% → 1%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −8
• ODUL 28-31 vs ODU63% → 5%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −52, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Florida Atlantic's side.

Closest call

UTEP 31-35 FAU (2016) - Florida Atlantic dropped to a 9.3% win probability before pulling it out.