2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreFAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:53 · Altee Tenpenny run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:20: Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 52 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q1 7:45: Greg Hankerson run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 34 — FAU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:48: Blake Sims pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:31: Adam Griffith 22 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:23: Jake Coker pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 9:40FAU 4th & 2 at ALA 49, down 7Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:23FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 12:31ALA 4th & 4 at FAU 5, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call98.4%−<0.192% to makePunt97.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 10:15FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 20, down 24Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:54FAU 4th & 27 at FAU 45, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 12:46FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 24, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 6:31FAU 4th & 1 at ALA 29, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%71% to convertField goal0.1%−0.258% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 1:04FAU 4th & 18 at FAU 17, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:00ALA 4th & 4 at FAU 26, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.164% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 12:02ALA 4th & 4 at FAU 11, up 38Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%45% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.187% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 9:39FAU 4th & 12 at FAU 20, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:31ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:20ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:48ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:23ALA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:19ALA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartALADrive 1TD8 plays · 74 yds · 2:0999% → 99%
Q1 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+19
99.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Chris Black for 19 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
99.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 18 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
99.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 3 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 2:201% → 1%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.0%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to William Dukes for 8 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+14
99.0%
Hankerson, Greg pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 14 yards to the FLAATLANTC43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLAATLANTC. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-1
98.9%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Henry Bussey for a loss of 1 yard Henry Bussey fumbled, recovered by FlAtlSimilar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+6
98.9%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 6 yds to the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD3 plays · 74 yds · 0:5599% → 99%
FAUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:221% → 1%
ALADrive 5TD8 plays · 78 yds · 3:2899% → 99%
Q1 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+10
98.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 10 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
98.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6FUMBLE2 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
99.0%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 16 yds Kamrin Solomon fumbled, recovered by Alab Reggie RaglandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7FG9 plays · 37 yds · 3:2999% → 99%
FAUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:451% → 1%
Q2 10:15
4TH & 3
OWN 20
-2
99.0%
Dalton Schomp punt for 55 yds , Christion Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 18 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Alab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD13 plays · 87 yds · 3:4399% → 100%
Q2 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+14
99.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 14 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+18
99.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to T.J. Yeldon for 18 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Chris Black for 15 yds to the FlAtl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT17 plays · 24 yds · 4:510% → 0%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.7%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for no gain to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+16
99.7%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 16 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+10
99.7%
Hankerson, Greg pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA holding 10 yards to the FLAATLANTC42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLAATLANTC. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
99.7%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 10 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-16
99.8%
Greg Hankerson sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 16 yards to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 27
OWN 45
+5
99.8%
Dalton Schomp punt for 38 yds , Christion Jones returns for 5 yds to the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11END OF HALF9 plays · 69 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
99.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Amari Cooper for 10 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+43
99.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to Amari Cooper for 43 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
99.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Christion Jones for 11 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-5
99.8%
Jake Coker sacked by Andrae Kirk for a loss of 5 yards to the FlAtl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q3 12:46
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+2
99.8%
Dalton Schomp punt for 44 yds , Christion Jones returns for 2 yds to the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13FUMBLE6 plays · 63 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+41
99.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 41 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+11
99.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to Chris Black for 11 yds to the FlAtl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 7 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
99.8%
Blake Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 3 Blake Sims fumbled, recovered by FlAtlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 68 yds · 3:290% → 0%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
99.8%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 16 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+5
99.8%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 5 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.8%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 5 yds to the Alab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD8 plays · 71 yds · 4:01100% → 100%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-13
99.9%
Kenyan Drake run for 2 yds to the Alab 31 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Alab 16Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 23
OWN 16
+20
99.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Amari Cooper for 20 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+40
99.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 40 yds to the FlAtl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.9%
Hankerson, Greg pass incomplete, PENALTY FLAATLANTC pass interference 12 yards to the FLAATLANTC13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+4
99.9%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Henry Bussey for 4 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Dalton Schomp punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17FG11 plays · 40 yds · 3:43100% → 100%
FAUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-10
100.0%
Greg Hankerson sacked by Rashaan Evans for a loss of 10 yards to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+70
100.0%
Dalton Schomp punt for 60 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 70 yds to the FlAtl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19END OF GAME4 plays · 6 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:48
Blake Sims pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 6:23
Jake Coker pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q1 8:20
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 52 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+0.1