Bethune-Cookman
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2017
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Bethune-Cookman allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Bethune-Cookman.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Bethune-Cookman's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at MIAQ3 2:22 4th & 2 at BCU 24, down 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at FAUQ4 9:02 4th & 2 at BCU 43, down 38Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at MIAQ4 8:41 4th & 3 at BCU 44, down 25Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at FAUQ4 3:59 4th & 1 at BCU 34, down 45Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (19)
- Q1 12:024th & 3 at MIA 36, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 7:254th & 16 at MIA 19, tied · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 1:154th & 4 at BCU 31, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 11:394th & 5 at BCU 31, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 7:304th & 7 at BCU 33, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:584th & 2 at MIA 41, down 21 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 2:224th & 2 at BCU 24, down 18 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 8:414th & 3 at BCU 44, down 25 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 9:294th & 12 at FAU 41, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 3:574th & 6 at BCU 40, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 14:524th & 11 at BCU 21, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 9:064th & 25 at BCU 28, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 5:234th & 15 at BCU 47, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 15:004th & 11 at BCU 26, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 11:154th & 5 at BCU 30, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 7:424th & 2 at BCU 33, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:144th & 18 at BCU 29, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 9:024th & 2 at BCU 43, down 38 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 3:594th & 1 at BCU 34, down 45 · PuntedClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2017
Expected wins adds up Bethune-Cookman's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2017
Every game starts at Bethune-Cookman's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.11
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
- MIAL 13-41 at MIA0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
- FAUL 0-45 at FAU7% → 0%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −10
Points of win probability, from Bethune-Cookman's side.
Closest call
BCU 14-12 FIU (2014) - Bethune-Cookman dropped to a 40.4% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2017
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Bethune-Cookman's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2017
The largest single-play change in Bethune-Cookman's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Bethune-Cookman's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Bethune-Cookman's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Bethune-Cookman's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Bethune-Cookman's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.