2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreBCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Trayone Gray run for 8 yds to the BthCk 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:34: Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:53: Uriel Hernandez 35 yd FG GOOD — BCU win probability +0.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:30: Mark Walton run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:16: Michael Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Uriel Hernandez KICK) — BCU win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:08: Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:02BCU 4th & 3 at MIA 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%53% to convertField goal0.6%−0.142% to makePunt0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:25BCU 4th & 16 at MIA 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.114% to convertField goalTheir call1.0%77% to makePunt0.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:19MIA 4th & 10 at BCU 10, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call98.5%88% to makePunt98.1%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:15BCU 4th & 4 at BCU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.7%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q2 11:39BCU 4th & 5 at BCU 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q2 7:30BCU 4th & 7 at BCU 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q2 2:58BCU 4th & 2 at MIA 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%57% to convertField goal0.8%−0.132% to makePunt0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:52MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 47, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q3 2:22BCU 4th & 2 at BCU 24, down 18Close callPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:49MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 27, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 8:41BCU 4th & 3 at BCU 44, down 25Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:14MIA 4th & 23 at BCU 33, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.17% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%49% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 13:31MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:31MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:34MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:30MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:16BCU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.3%97% to makeGo for two1.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:08MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCUDrive 1FG16 plays · 54 yds · 7:180% → 1%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.6%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Jawill Davis for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
99.6%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Michael Jones for 2 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+4
99.6%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Michael Jones for 4 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+11
99.5%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Frank Brown for 11 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-6
99.4%
Larry Brihm Jr. sacked by Demetrius Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 13
OPP 16
-5
99.4%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 18
OPP 21
-5
99.4%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 28
OPP 31
+12
99.3%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Frank Brown for 12 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FG13 plays · 55 yds · 3:4799% → 99%
Q1 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
99.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 2 yds to the BthCk 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
99.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 9 yds to the BthCk 11Similar
Q1 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-11
99.1%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the BthCk 5 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the BthCk 20Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+10
99.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mark Walton for 10 yds to the BthCk 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Tupac Isme for 2 yds to the BthCk 27Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
98.9%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Michael Jones for 3 yds to the BthCk 31Similar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+12
98.8%
Javaunie Francis punt for 44 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 12 yds to the BthCk 43 BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Personal Foul (DeAndre Bozeman) to the BthCk 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD12 plays · 48 yds · 2:4499% → 99%
Q1 0:50
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+18
98.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 18 yds to the BthCk 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
98.9%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the BthCk 25Similar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 5
OPP 25
-7
98.8%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the BthCk 22 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the BthCk 32Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+15
98.8%
Rosier, Malik pass complete to Walton, Mark for no gain to the BETHCOOK32, PENALTY BETHCOOK personal foul 15 yards to the BETHCOOK17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
98.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mark Walton for a loss of 2 yards to the BthCk 19Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-5
98.7%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the BthCk 14 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the BthCk 24Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+19
98.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 19 yds to the BthCk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
98.9%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 9 yds to the BthCk 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD9 plays · 92 yds · 3:0899% → 99%
Q2 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
98.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 6 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
98.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 14 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+46
98.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 46 yds to the BthCk 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:431% → 1%
MIADrive 8TD4 plays · 78 yds · 1:4399% → 100%
Q2 5:34
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 9FG18 plays · 59 yds · 4:191% → 2%
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
99.3%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Ja-Quan Lumas for 6 yds to the BthCk 32Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
99.3%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 5 yds to the BthCk 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
99.3%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Jawill Davis for 14 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
99.3%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Ja-Quan Lumas for 8 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+13
99.2%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Jawill Davis for 13 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
99.2%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Jawill Davis for 11 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
99.1%
Brihm Jr., Larry pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MIAMI20 (Jackson, Joe), PENALTY MIAMI personal foul 9 yards to the MIAMI8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BETHCOOK.Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
-5
99.2%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10END OF HALF7 plays · 47 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
98.8%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dajuan Jackson) to the BthCk 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
98.7%
Malik Rosier run for a loss of 2 yards to the BthCk 21 Malik Rosier fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Travis HomerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD9 plays · 72 yds · 2:1599% → 100%
Q3 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+33
99.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 33 yds to the BthCk 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+10
99.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 10 yds to the BthCk 17Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+11
98.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Michael Irvin II for 11 yds to the BthCk 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 12TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:581% → 2%
Q3 11:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
99.5%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BthCk 28Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
99.5%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Michael Jones for 13 yds to the BthCk 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.5%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 6 yds to the BthCk 47Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-5
99.5%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, False Start (Chris Adams) to the BthCk 42Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+41
99.5%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Jamaruz Thompkins for 41 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+13
99.5%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Donald Johnson IV for 13 yds to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
BCUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:262% → 2%
MIADrive 15TD4 plays · 52 yds · 0:5799% → 100%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 16INT12 plays · 46 yds · 3:300% → 1%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BthCk 20Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
99.5%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Michael Jones for 7 yds to the BthCk 27Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.6%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Jawill Davis for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+19
99.6%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Michael Jones for 19 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
99.5%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass intercepted Malek Young return for 24 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q4 11:49
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+57
99.8%
Zach Feagles punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Frank Brown at the MIAMI 26 BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BthCk 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 10:37
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+19
99.8%
Jabari Dunham pass complete to Jamal Thomas for 19 yds to the BthCk 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+3
99.8%
Jabari Dunham pass complete to Michael Jones for 3 yds to the BthCk 44Similar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Javaunie Francis punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19FG7 plays · 32 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
BCUDrive 20FUMBLE6 plays · 45 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Jabari Dunham pass complete to Demetrius Weaver for no gain Demetrius Weaver fumbled, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21Uncategorized3 plays · 25 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:16
Michael Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Uriel Hernandez KICK)
-1.3
TD · Q3 1:08
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+1
FG · Q2 0:53
Uriel Hernandez 35 yd FG GOOD
-0.7