2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreBCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:42 · Javaunie Francis punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:53: Daniel Parr run for 9 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +0.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:57: Daniel Parr pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +1.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:06: Daniel Parr run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:55: BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Defensive offside (Todney Evans) to the FlAtl 25 — FAU win probability +1.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:15: Devin Singletary run for 19 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +2.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 9:29BCU 4th & 12 at FAU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.4%−<0.124% to convertField goal11.4%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call11.5%average punt
- Q1 3:57BCU 4th & 6 at BCU 40, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it9.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%average punt
- Q2 15:00FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 49, up 14Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.6%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:52BCU 4th & 11 at BCU 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it9.6%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%average punt
- Q2 13:19FAU 4th & 1 at BCU 9, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.7%71% to convertField goal89.8%−0.889% to makePunt87.4%−3.3average punt
- Q2 9:06BCU 4th & 25 at BCU 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q2 6:39FAU 4th & 7 at BCU 43, up 21Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.2%37% to convertField goal94.7%−0.528% to makePuntTheir call94.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:23BCU 4th & 15 at BCU 47, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q3 15:00BCU 4th & 11 at BCU 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q3 11:15BCU 4th & 5 at BCU 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 7:42FAU 4th & 7 at BCU 28, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%60% to makePunt99.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:42BCU 4th & 2 at BCU 33, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 4:12FAU 4th & 2 at BCU 44, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%57% to convertField goal99.6%−0.227% to makePunt99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 6 at BCU 37, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%40% to convertField goal99.8%−0.140% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:14BCU 4th & 18 at BCU 29, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:04FAU 4th & 4 at BCU 35, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.145% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:02BCU 4th & 2 at BCU 43, down 38Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:56FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 32, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 3:59BCU 4th & 1 at BCU 34, down 45Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 6:53FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:57FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.3%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:06FAU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:15FAU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:29FAU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1FUMBLE7 plays · 81 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
92.6%
Daniel Parr pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 22 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
92.6%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 8 yds to the BthCk 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+14
92.6%
Devin Singletary run for 14 yds Devin Singletary fumbled, forced by Diquan Richardson, recovered by BthCk Trenton BridgesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 39 yds · 3:568% → 9%
Q1 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
92.2%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Frank Brown for 7 yds to the BthCk 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+26
92.2%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Ja-Quan Lumas for 26 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
92.1%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Ja-Quan Lumas for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
92.1%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass incomplete to Jawill Davis, broken up by Andrew SorohSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 11
OPP 40
-1
92.2%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Michael Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
91.1%
Javaunie Francis punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD11 plays · 81 yds · 2:2991% → 92%
Q1 9:22
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-5
91.0%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Roman Fernandez) to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
91.1%
Daniel Parr sacked by Trenton Bridges for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+32
91.0%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 32 yds to the BthCk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
91.3%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BthCk 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4TD10 plays · 72 yds · 2:5691% → 93%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+28
91.3%
Daniel Parr pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 28 yds to the BthCk 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
91.6%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Devin Singletary for 8 yds to the BthCk 36Similar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
91.6%
Daniel Parr pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 7 yds to the BthCk 26Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+7
91.5%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 7 yds to the BthCk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.6%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.1%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Anthony Cruz for 9 yds to the BthCk 34Similar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.9%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass incomplete to Anthony Cruz, broken up by Chris TooleySimilar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+4
92.1%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Anthony Cruz for 4 yds to the BthCk 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 1:3792% → 92%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
92.4%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Kerrith Whyte Jr. for 8 yds to the FLAATLANTC 47 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 12
OWN 43
-5
92.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Roman Fernandez) to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 17
OWN 38
-15
92.3%
PARR, Daniel pass complete to INTERNICOLA, Ni for 17 yards to the BCU45, PENALTY FAU face mask (BAIN, Reggie) 15 yards to the FAU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 24
OWN 31
+18
91.9%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 18 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
92.0%
Ryan Rickel punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Frank Brown at the BthCk 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 14:52
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
91.7%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for no gain to the BthCk 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD15 plays · 64 yds · 4:1392% → 96%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.1%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to Willie Wright, broken up by Joseph JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+19
92.0%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Devin Singletary for 19 yds to the BthCk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
92.4%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the BthCk 40Similar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
92.4%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 3 yds to the BthCk 26Similar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
92.4%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Devin Singletary for a loss of 5 yards to the BthCk 23Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+12
92.2%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 12 yds to the BthCk 9Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
92.3%
PARR, Daniel pass complete to McNEAL, DeAndre for 5 yards to the BCU0, clock 09:51, PENALTY FAU pass interference (McNEAL, DeAndre) 15 yards to the BCU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+12
92.3%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 4 yds to the BthCk 16 for a 1ST down BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, face mask (8 yards) (8 Yards) to the BthCk 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
FAUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
96.6%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 12 yds to the BthCk 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 0:005% → 4%
FAUDrive 12INT8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.0%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Defensive offside (Todney Evans) to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 5
OWN 25
-10
97.1%
PARR, Daniel pass complete to SOLOMON, Kamrin for 20 yards to the FAU45 (D. Richardson), PENALTY FAU holding (BAIN, Reggie) 10 yards to the FAU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.1%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to Willie Wright, broken up by Diquan RichardsonSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
97.1%
PARR, Daniel pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, John, PENALTY BCU personal foul (D. Richardson) 15 yards to the FAU46, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.3%
Daniel Parr pass intercepted Diquan Richardson return for no gain to the BthCk 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
BCUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:004% → 3%
FAUDrive 15TD6 plays · 58 yds · 1:5997% → 100%
BCUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass incomplete to Keavon Mitchell, broken up by Andrew SorohSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17FG8 plays · 40 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
99.5%
Daniel Parr pass complete to John Franklin III for 12 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
99.5%
Daniel Parr pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 13 yds to the BthCk 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-2
99.5%
Daniel Parr sacked by Trenton Bridges for a loss of 2 yards to the BthCk 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Javaunie Francis punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19TD4 plays · 65 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.7%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (DeAndre Bozeman) to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 20INT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
FAUDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 30 yds · 4:12100% → 100%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.8%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Defensive offside (DiShawn Ray) to the BthCk 47Similar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-9
99.8%
Jason Driskel run for a loss of 9 yards to the FlAtl 47 Jason Driskel fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Jason DriskelSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 22
OWN 47
+2
99.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Marcus Clark for 2 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 49
+14
99.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 14 yds to the BthCk 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.9%
Larry Brihm Jr. pass complete to Que'Shaun Byrd for a loss of 1 yard to the BthCk 36Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
99.9%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, false start (Dwayne Brown) to the BthCk 34Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 13
OWN 34
-5
99.9%
Larry Brihm Jr. sacked by Nick Internicola for a loss of 5 yards to the BthCk 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to John Franklin III for no gain to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+15
99.9%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to INTERNICOLA, Ni, PENALTY BCU pass interference (DeAndre Bozeman) 15 yards to the BCU41, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Henry Bussey III, broken up by Davonte LawrenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:02
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+48
99.9%
Javaunie Francis punt for 40 yds , Henry Bussey III returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 42 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, illegal block (Zyon Gilbert) to the FlAtl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
99.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Ladante Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 26FUMBLE TD1 play · -11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
100.0%
Tupac Isme run for 1 yd Tupac Isme fumbled, forced by Quran Hafiz, recovered by FlAtl Chris Tooley , return for 14 yds, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Javaunie Francis punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Henry Bussey III at the FlAtl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28END OF GAME3 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:06
Daniel Parr run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+4
TD · Q3 11:15
Devin Singletary run for 19 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+2.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:55
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Defensive offside (Todney Evans) to the FlAtl 25
+1.5