2025 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025 · Pitbull Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreBCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jordan Clemons run for 3 yds to the FIU 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:49: Kejon Owens run for 16 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK) — FIU win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:43: Keyone Jenkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK) — FIU win probability +1.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:17: Devonte Lyons run for 35 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK) — FIU win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:29: Juan Dominguez 22 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:44: Keyone Jenkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK) — FIU win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 11:46BCU 4th & 3 at FIU 18, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snapGo for it6.0%51% to convertField goalTheir call5.9%−<0.179% to makePunt5.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:53BCU 4th & 11 at BCU 47, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q2 13:19BCU 4th & 13 at BCU 32, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.1%average punt
- Q2 7:29BCU 4th & 2 at BCU 35, down 18Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:29BCU 4th & 5 at FIU 5, down 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.7%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call4.8%92% to makePunt3.6%−1.1average punt
- Q2 0:54FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 24, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.0%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q2 0:19BCU 4th & 10 at FIU 32, down 22Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%−0.330% to convertField goal3.0%51% to makePunt2.5%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:01FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 47, up 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt97.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:57FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 41, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%average punt
- Q3 11:15BCU 4th & 8 at BCU 22, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 7:48BCU 4th & 1 at FIU 15, down 29Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%71% to convertField goal0.5%−0.183% to makePunt0.0%−0.6average punt
- Q3 1:44FIU 4th & 6 at BCU 27, up 29Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%62% to makePunt99.4%−0.3average punt
- Q4 12:12BCU 4th & 4 at FIU 11, down 29Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.145% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%87% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 7:01FIU 4th & 2 at BCU 2, up 26Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%48% to convertField goal99.6%−0.194% to makePunt99.1%−0.7average punt
- Q4 1:46BCU 4th & 10 at FIU 15, down 33Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.0%83% to makePunt-0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 8:34FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:49FIU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:43FIU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:17FIU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:44FIU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:01FIU Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCUDrive 1FG9 plays · 62 yds · 2:545% → 6%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.7%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for no gain to the BCU 20Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
94.5%
(13:48) PENALTY BCU False Start 5 yards from BCU21 to BCU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+59
94.5%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Javon Ross for 59 yds to the FIU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+3
94.1%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Maleek Huggins for 3 yds to the FIU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2TD10 plays · 67 yds · 2:5794% → 94%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
94.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kyle McNeal for 7 yds to the FIU 40Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
93.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 6 yds to the FIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
93.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Shaborne Demps for 10 yds to the BCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+26
93.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Shaborne Demps for 26 yds to the BCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:297% → 7%
FIUDrive 4TD19 plays · 89 yds · 6:5793% → 94%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
92.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for a loss of 1 yard to the FIU 22Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+15
93.0%
Bethune-Cookman Penalty, Personal Foul (Cornelious Bass) to the FIU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
92.9%
(04:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone pass complete short left to Payne,Dallas caught at FIU31, for 6 yards to the FIU30 (Watts,Antwone) PENALTY FIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Pierce,Julius) 5 yards from FIU24 to FIU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
92.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Maguire Anderson for 9 yds to the FIU 33Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
92.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 7 yds to the BCU 41Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+7
92.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Anthony Carrie for 7 yds to the BCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
92.3%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone rush middle for 5 yards loss to the BCU39 (Hall Jr.,Adrian; Lloyd,Montravius) PENALTY BCU Offside (McKenzie,Matthew) 5 yards from BCU34 to BCU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+13
92.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Nelson for 13 yds to the BCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
93.5%
PENALTY FIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BCU03 to BCU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:217% → 6%
Q2 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-10
93.3%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun McClain,Timmy pass complete deep left to Campbell,Gerald caught at FIU42, for 23 yards to the FIU41, out of bounds at FIU41 PENALTY BCU Holding (Morales,Myles) 10 yards from BCU36 to BCU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+3
93.6%
Max Tulen punt for 46 yds , C'Quan Jnopierre returns for 3 yds to the FIU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2393% → 96%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
93.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Braiden Staten for 18 yds to the FIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+15
93.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Anthony Carrie for 15 yds to the BCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+30
93.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kyle McNeal for 30 yds to the BCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
93.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Shaborne Demps for 5 yds to the BCU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:585% → 5%
Q2 8:49
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+7
95.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Ross for 7 yds to the BCU 32Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
94.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 3 yds to the BCU 35Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
94.8%
Max Tulen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by C'Quan Jnopierre at the FIU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8TD5 plays · 70 yds · 2:0395% → 98%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
95.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 11 yds to the FIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 9FG17 plays · 70 yds · 3:487% → 3%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
92.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Rickie Shaw II for 4 yds to the BCU 24Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
92.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Marqui Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the BCU 23Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+18
92.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Rickie Shaw II for 18 yds to the BCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
90.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Rickie Shaw II for 13 yds to the FIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+28
92.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Lorenzo Jenkins for 28 yds to the FIU 6 for a 1ST down Florida International Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2198% → 98%
BCUDrive 11DOWNS5 plays · 21 yds · 0:282% → 2%
FIUDrive 12DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:1298% → 98%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
98.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dallas Payne for 7 yds to the FIU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5198% → 98%
Q3 13:57
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
97.5%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 51 yds , Maleek Huggins returns for no gain to the BCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 15FUMBLE2 plays · 4 yds · 0:093% → 3%
FIUDrive 16TD3 plays · 12 yds · 0:5298% → 99%
BCUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:141% → 1%
Q3 11:15
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+43
99.5%
Max Tulen punt for 43 yds , C'Quan Jnopierre returns for no gain to the FIU 34 , returns for no gain to the FIU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 18DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 3:171% → 1%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-11
99.4%
Timmy McClain sacked by Percy Courtney Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the FIU 45Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 21
OPP 45
+19
99.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Ross for 19 yds to the FIU 26Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+2
99.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Josh Evans for 2 yds to the FIU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
99.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Ali Scott Jr. for no gain to the FIU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19MISSED FG13 plays · 58 yds · 5:52100% → 100%
Q3 6:21
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+11
99.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Anthony Carrie for 11 yds to the FIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to JoJo Stone for 5 yds to the BCU 37Similar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
99.8%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone pass complete short right to Lyons,Devonte caught at BCU14, for 17 yards to the BCU14 (White,Gabe) PENALTY FIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Staley,Chad) 5 yards from BCU31 to BCU36. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 20FG13 plays · 62 yds · 4:170% → 0%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Ross for 3 yds to the BCU 30Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+9
99.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Rickie Shaw II for 9 yds to the BCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Rickie Shaw II for 8 yds to the BCU 47Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+7
99.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Khamani Robinson for 7 yds to the FIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
99.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Ross for 15 yds to the FIU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Josh Evans for 6 yds to the FIU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:53100% → 100%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.7%
Bethune-Cookman Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Johnny Harris III) to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
99.8%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Braiden Staten for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+34
99.8%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Eric Nelson for 34 yds to the BCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.8%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 5 yds to the BCU 2Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Anthony Carrie run for 2 yds for a TD Bethune-Cookman Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnny Harris III) to the BCU 0 (Robert Czeremcha KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 22DOWNS14 plays · 60 yds · 4:590% → 0%
FIUDrive 23END OF GAME4 plays · 20 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
100.0%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Andre Brown for 6 yds to the FIU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 1:29
Juan Dominguez 22 yd FG GOOD
+3.5
TD · Q2 5:17
Devonte Lyons run for 35 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 9:43
Keyone Jenkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK)
+1.8