Austin Peay
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2015
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Austin Peay allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Austin Peay.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Austin Peay's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at VANQ2 2:23 4th & 1 at APSU 34, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
- at USMQ2 12:23 4th & 1 at APSU 26, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
- at VANQ2 15:00 4th & 2 at VAN 45, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at USMQ3 12:55 4th & 3 at APSU 8, down 22Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at USMQ2 15:00 4th & 2 at APSU 38, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at USMQ2 10:13 4th & 3 at APSU 18, down 15Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at VANQ4 2:30 4th & 11 at APSU 34, down 40Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts
- at VANQ4 7:15 4th & 7 at VAN 11, down 33Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (26)
- Q1 15:004th & 11 at APSU 23, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 10:284th & 5 at APSU 37, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 8:444th & 4 at APSU 26, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 15:004th & 2 at APSU 38, down 1 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 12:234th & 1 at APSU 26, down 8 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 10:134th & 3 at APSU 18, down 15 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 7:374th & 11 at APSU 30, down 22 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:034th & 7 at APSU 40, down 22 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 12:554th & 3 at APSU 8, down 22 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 9:234th & 13 at APSU 12, down 29 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:344th & 1 at APSU 39, down 43 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 5:464th & 3 at USM 26, down 46 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 5:464th & 3 at USM 13, down 46 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 1:044th & 9 at USM 9, down 46 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 14:554th & 6 at APSU 32, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 4:544th & 9 at APSU 6, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 15:004th & 2 at VAN 45, down 3 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 7:264th & 7 at APSU 20, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:234th & 1 at APSU 34, down 6 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 13:104th & 11 at APSU 40, down 19 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 6:424th & 21 at APSU 32, down 19 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 3:114th & 7 at APSU 22, down 26 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 7 at APSU 45, down 33 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 7:154th & 7 at VAN 11, down 33 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 6:134th & 6 at APSU 15, down 33 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 2:304th & 11 at APSU 34, down 40 · Went for itClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2015
Expected wins adds up Austin Peay's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2015
Every game starts at Austin Peay's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.04
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.02
Game by game
- USML 6-52 at USM1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
- VANL 7-47 at VAN1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
Points of win probability, from Austin Peay's side.
Closest call
APSU 34-14 MTSU (2025) - Austin Peay dropped to a 12.0% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2015
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Austin Peay's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2015
The largest single-play change in Austin Peay's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Austin Peay's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Austin Peay's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Austin Peay's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Austin Peay's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.