Austin Peay

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Austin Peay allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

1. L
   MEM

Bars above the line: better than expected for Austin Peay.

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Austin Peay's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MEMQ3 7:39 4th & 1 at APSU 44, down 56Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
2. at MEMQ3 15:00 4th & 5 at MEM 36, down 42Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

Expected wins adds up Austin Peay's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MEM

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Austin Peay's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.02

Game by game

• MEML 0-63 at MEM3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −4

Points of win probability, from Austin Peay's side.

Closest call

APSU 34-14 MTSU (2025) - Austin Peay dropped to a 12.0% win probability before pulling it out.