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APSU

Austin Peay 9 at Vanderbilt 28

VAN
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:21: Blaze Berlowitz 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick) — VAN win probability +1.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:33: Hamilton DiBoyan 51 Yd Field Goal — APSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:23: Timeout Austin Peay, clock 11:23 — VAN win probability +1.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:24: (05:25) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 18 yards gain to the APSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:24, 1ST DOWN #1 B.Berlowitz pass attempt failed — VAN win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q4 14:50: (14:52) #49 L.Leftrick punt 9 yards to the APSU27 #18 J.Broxton return 27 yards to the APSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:50 #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #37 T.Ebel, LS: #54 K.Schickel) — VAN win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8APSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:15VAN 4th & 1 at APSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59VAN 4th & 9 at APSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:20APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:19VAN 4th & 6 at APSU 19, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:34APSU 4th & 5 at APSU 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:33APSU 4th & 6 at VAN 33, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:28VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:07APSU 4th & 1 at VAN 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−2.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:47APSU 4th & 6 at VAN 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:24VAN 4th & 1 at APSU 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−1.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−6.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:21APSU 4th & 15 at APSU 20, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:10VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 41, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50APSU 4th & 12 at APSU 18, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:22APSU 4th & 7 at APSU 28, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:07VAN 4th & 1 at APSU 28, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:55APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 39, down 19
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:54VAN 4th & 15 at VAN 19, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2APSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:57APSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:21VAN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:24VAN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 5:5397% → 96%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.2%
(14:57) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush right for 4 yards gain to the VU29 (#15 T.Royal; #34 E.Jones)Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
97.1%
(14:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush right for 13 yards gain to the VU42 (#81 M.Denkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
97.1%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush right for 4 yards gain to the VU46 (#45 A.Sandifer; #34 E.Jones)Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
97.0%
(13:42) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VU49 (#51 A.Hamilton)Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
96.9%
(12:54) Shotgun #22 M.Young rush middle for 2 yards gain to the APSU49 (#11 D.Jenkins; #81 M.Denkins)Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+5
96.8%
(12:19) Shotgun #22 M.Young rush right for 5 yards gain to the APSU44 (#11 D.Jenkins; #26 T.Haile), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
96.7%
(11:46) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete short middle to #13 K.Barnett caught at APSU45, for 12 yards to the APSU32 (#13 K.Howard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
96.6%
(11:04) Shotgun #3 J.Lassiter rush right for 17 yards gain to the APSU15 (#26 T.Haile), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
96.6%
(10:37) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush right for 7 yards gain to the APSU08 (#9 Q.Peterson; #4 C.Merritt)Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+2
96.5%
(09:53) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz rush middle for 2 yards gain to the APSU06 (#3 M.Redding)Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+12
96.3%
(09:10) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush left for 6 yards gain (2) to the APSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:11 PENALTY VU Holding (#52 K.Wesley) 10 yards from APSU04 to APSU14Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
96.3%
(09:02) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass incomplete short right to #28 S.Alexander thrown to APSU01 broken up by #9 Q.Peterson QB hurried by #23 K.CharneySimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
96.3%
(08:58) #88 B.Taylor field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #37 T.Ebel, LS: #54 K.Schickel), clock 08:59Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:564% → 5%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
(08:57) Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass incomplete short right to #15 D.Harper thrown to APSU34 QB hurried by #8 C.HeardSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.2%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short left to #19 M.Sims caught at APSU34, for 9 yards to the APSU34, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
96.2%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass incomplete short middle to #15 D.Harper thrown to APSU38 broken up by #24 N.RinaldiSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
96.2%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the APSU38 (#24 N.Rinaldi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
96.0%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short middle to #19 M.Sims caught at APSU47, for 9 yards to the APSU47 (#7 R.Jones)Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+14
95.9%
(07:17) No Huddle #7 N.Garnett Jr. rush right for 14 yards gain to the VU39 (#4 M.Hight), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY VU Personal Foul (#4 M.Hight) 15 yards from VU39 to VU24, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
95.4%
C. Parson pass to D. Harper for 24 yds, for a TD (N. Guagliano Blocked) #93 N.Guagliano kick attempt failed ( blocked by #5 Y.Ouattara) (H: #49 L.Leftrick, LS: #52 I.Sarabia-Favela) recovered by VU #4 M.Hight at VU12 #4 M.Hight defensive PAT SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 7:2296% → 94%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
95.5%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush right for 4 yards gain to the VU12 (#6 D.Creary)Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
95.4%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush left for 5 yards gain to the VU17 (#26 T.Haile), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+1
95.1%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Young rush left for 1 yard gain to the VU18 (#6 D.Creary), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
95.0%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VU19 (#6 D.Creary; #33 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+11
94.8%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete short middle to #8 J.Conner caught at VU26, for 11 yards to the VU30 (#22 T.Hardy; #6 D.Creary), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
94.7%
(03:19) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VU34 (#45 A.Sandifer)Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
94.6%
(02:36) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete short right to #13 K.Barnett caught at VU34, for 9 yards to the VU43 (#51 A.Hamilton; #3 M.Redding), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
94.5%
(01:51) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete short right to #5 T.Brown caught at VU47, for 7 yards to the VU50 (#6 D.Creary)Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 3
50
+27
94.4%
(01:06) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at APSU46, for 27 yards to the APSU23 (#22 T.Hardy), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
94.4%
(00:21) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass incomplete short middle to #0 J.Sherrill thrown to APSU11Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
94.3%
(00:17) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush right for 1 yard gain to the APSU22 (#34 E.Jones)Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+3
94.0%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz rush left for 3 yards gain to the APSU19 (#3 M.Redding), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
94.2%
Brock Taylor 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:386% → 7%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.0%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short right to #8 J.Robinson caught at APSU25, for 5 yards to the APSU30 (#25 M.Lewis)Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
93.7%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short left to #6 K.Williams caught at APSU31, for 10 yards to the APSU40 (#7 R.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
93.4%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Williams rush left for 1 yard gain to the APSU41 (#53 G.Seabrooks III; #5 Y.Ouattara)Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
93.2%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass incomplete short right to #19 M.Sims thrown to APSU45 QB hurried by #17 E.KolengeSimilar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+4
93.3%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short right to #11 C.Simmons caught at APSU35, for 4 yards to the APSU45 (#8 C.Heard)Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+8
93.3%
(11:36) #49 L.Leftrick punt 51 yards to the VU04 #4 M.Hight return 8 yards to the VU12 (#26 T.Haile)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 5:0593% → 95%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
93.2%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz rush middle for 2 yards loss to the VU10 (#14 J.Bretanys-Desca)Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+31
92.9%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete deep right to #0 J.Sherrill caught at VU33, for 31 yards to the VU41 (#3 M.Redding; #4 C.Merritt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
93.1%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VU45 fumbled by #1 B.Berlowitz at VU36 recovered by VU #1 B.Berlowitz at VU36 (#4 C.Merritt)Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
93.0%
(09:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass incomplete deep right to #5 T.Brown thrown to APSU32Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+13
92.7%
(09:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz rush right for 13 yards gain to the APSU42 (#14 J.Bretanys-Desca; #26 T.Haile), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
92.9%
(08:22) #22 M.Young rush middle for 5 yards gain to the APSU37 (#0 K.Crisp)Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+10
92.9%
(07:40) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete short middle to #13 K.Barnett caught at APSU41, for 10 yards to the APSU27 (#26 T.Haile), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
92.8%
(07:13) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete short left to #19 M.Veney caught at APSU16, for 20 yards to the APSU07 (#0 K.Crisp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.5%
Blaze Berlowitz 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 6FG
14 plays · 42 yds · 4:396% → 9%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
94.0%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson sacked for loss of 12 yards to the APSU13 (#10 B.Allen)Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+16
94.0%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 I.Groves rush left for 16 yards gain to the APSU29 (#9 J.Gilbert)Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
93.9%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short left to #19 M.Sims caught at APSU34, for 8 yards to the APSU37 (#26 C.Daniels), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
93.4%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short left to #19 M.Sims caught at APSU45, for 8 yards to the APSU45 (#26 C.Daniels)Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
93.0%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson rush right for 5 yards gain to the APSU50 (#11 B.Longwell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
50
+13
92.6%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short middle to #7 N.Garnett Jr. caught at VU39, for 13 yards to the VU37 (#7 R.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
92.3%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 D.Harper rush left for 0 yards to the VU37 (#11 B.Longwell)Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
92.2%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass incomplete short right to #19 M.Sims thrown to VU18Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+4
92.2%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VU33 (#29 M.Capers)Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
91.3%
Hamilton DiBoyan 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:5892% → 92%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
92.0%
(01:30) Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass complete short right to #6 J.Thomas caught at VU41, for 17 yards to the VU41 (#26 T.Haile), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
92.6%
PENALTY VU False Start (#70 C.McConnell) 5 yards from VU41 to VU36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+5
92.0%
(01:21) Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass complete short right to #8 J.Conner caught at VU41, for 5 yards to the VU41, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
92.3%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass complete short left to #28 S.Alexander caught at VU36, for 4 yards to the VU45 (#3 M.Redding)Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
92.2%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass incomplete deep left to #28 S.Alexander thrown to APSU28 QB hurried by #11 D.JenkinsSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
91.5%
(00:33) #37 T.Ebel punt 44 yards to the APSU11 #15 D.Harper return 0 yards to the APSU11 (#18 J.Broxton) PENALTY VU Face Mask (#15 J.McVay) 15 yards from APSU11 to APSU26, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
91.8%
(00:28) Kneel down by #3 C.Parson at APSU25 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 9DOWNS
13 plays · 30 yds · 4:019% → 10%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.8%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short left to #8 J.Robinson caught at APSU28, for 5 yards to the APSU30 (#8 C.Heard)Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
90.2%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Simmons rush middle for 17 yards gain to the APSU47 (#8 C.Heard; #1 D.Carter), 1ST DOWN. #73 J.Miller injured on the playSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
89.3%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson sacked for loss of 4 yards to the APSU43 (#5 Y.Ouattara)Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+2
90.0%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Simmons rush middle for 2 yards gain to the APSU45 (#5 Y.Ouattara; #8 C.Heard)Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+11
90.0%
(12:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short right to #19 M.Sims caught at VU44, for 11 yards to the VU44 (#4 M.Hight; #8 C.Heard)Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+4
89.1%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VU40 (#4 M.Hight; #8 C.Heard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.0%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass incomplete deep right to #13 J.Head thrown to VU16Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
89.4%
(11:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass incomplete short left to #6 K.Williams thrown to VU43 QB hurried by #11 B.LongwellSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+4
90.0%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Simmons rush right for 4 yards gain to the VU36 (#24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 6
OPP 36
-5
90.3%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson sacked for loss of 9 yards to the VU45 (#24 N.Rinaldi, #17 E.Kolenge), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 5:1692% → 95%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
91.8%
(10:45) Shotgun #3 J.Lassiter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the VU49 (#34 E.Jones; #45 A.Sandifer)Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
91.7%
(09:55) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz rush right for 2 yards gain to the APSU49 (#81 M.Denkins; #45 A.Sandifer)Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+7
91.2%
(09:07) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz rush right for 7 yards gain to the APSU42 (#0 K.Crisp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
91.3%
(08:22) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush right for 7 yards gain to the APSU35 (#9 Q.Peterson)Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+8
91.7%
(07:38) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete short left to #8 J.Conner caught at APSU30, for 8 yards to the APSU27 (#26 T.Haile), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
91.6%
(06:57) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete short right to #0 J.Sherrill caught at APSU20, for 7 yards to the APSU20 (#15 T.Royal)Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
91.5%
(06:11) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass incomplete short right to #19 M.Veney thrown to APSU07 QB hurried by #22 T.HardySimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+2
90.9%
(06:07) Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz rush left for 2 yards gain to the APSU18 (#34 E.Jones)Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+18
94.9%
(05:25) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 18 yards gain to the APSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:24, 1ST DOWN #1 B.Berlowitz pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:575% → 5%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
(05:20) No Huddle #6 K.Williams rush middle for 0 yards to the APSU25 (#11 B.Longwell; #22 B.Cowan)Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass incomplete short left to #6 K.Williams thrown to APSU35 QB hurried by #25 M.LewisSimilar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass incomplete short middle to #19 M.Sims thrown to APSU43Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.3%
PENALTY APSU False Start (#54 A.Surber) 5 yards from APSU25 to APSU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+8
95.2%
(04:32) #49 L.Leftrick punt 52 yards to the VU28 #4 M.Hight return 8 yards to the VU36 (#39 J.Grier Jr.; #41 K.Tate)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0595% → 95%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
95.3%
(04:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass complete short right to #9 B.Coleman caught at VU35, for 7 yards to the VU43 (#26 T.Haile)Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
95.4%
PENALTY VU False Start (#51 C.Azubuike) 5 yards from VU43 to VU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
95.4%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Conner thrown to APSU46Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+3
95.2%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Berlowitz rush right for 3 yards gain to the VU41 (#3 M.Redding)Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
95.1%
(02:12) #37 T.Ebel punt 59 yards to the APSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 13PUNT TD
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:145% → 1%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
94.8%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 I.Groves rush middle for 1 yard gain to the APSU21 (#29 M.Capers; #11 B.Longwell)Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
94.8%
(01:21) No Huddle #7 N.Garnett Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the APSU25 (#26 C.Daniels)Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-7
94.8%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson sacked for loss of 7 yards to the APSU18 (#5 Y.Ouattara)Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+27
98.7%
(14:52) #49 L.Leftrick punt 9 yards to the APSU27 #18 J.Broxton return 27 yards to the APSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:50 #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #37 T.Ebel, LS: #54 K.Schickel)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:251% → 1%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass incomplete short left to #19 M.Sims thrown to APSU21Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.7%
(14:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Richardson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the APSU28 (#26 C.Daniels; #24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.8%
(14:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Simmons rush middle for 0 yards to the APSU28 (#24 N.Rinaldi)Similar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.9%
(13:25) #49 L.Leftrick punt 50 yards to the VU22 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at VU22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 5:0799% → 99%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
98.9%
(13:19) Shotgun #22 M.Young rush left for 4 yards gain to the VU26 (#22 T.Hardy; #34 E.Jones)Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
98.9%
(12:39) Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass complete short left to #5 T.Brown caught at VU30, for 9 yards to the VU35 (#22 T.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
98.9%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass complete short left to #22 M.Young caught at VU39, for 14 yards to the VU49 (#0 K.Crisp; #22 T.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.0%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis rush middle for 5 yards gain to the APSU46 (#11 D.Jenkins; #3 M.Redding)Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
99.0%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Thomas thrown to APSU36Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+9
99.0%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis rush middle for 9 yards gain to the APSU37 (#0 K.Crisp; #29 C.Williams), 1ST DOWN. #93 R.Jackson injured on the playSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.0%
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass complete short left to #0 J.Sherrill caught at APSU33, for 5 yards to the APSU32 (#3 M.Redding)Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+5
99.0%
PENALTY VU False Start (#70 C.McConnell) 5 yards from APSU32 to APSU37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.0%
PENALTY VU Delay Of Game (#2 J.Curtis) 5 yards from APSU37 to APSU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+8
99.0%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis rush left for 8 yards gain to the APSU34, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+6
99.0%
(08:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Curtis pass complete short right to #8 J.Conner caught at APSU29, for 6 yards to the APSU28 (#4 C.Merritt; #26 T.Haile)Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 1
OPP 28
-2
99.0%
(08:10) No Huddle #22 M.Young rush right for 2 yards loss to the APSU30 (#81 M.Denkins; #14 J.Bretanys-Desca), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.0%
(08:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Simmons rush middle for 3 yards gain to the APSU33 (#53 G.Seabrooks III)Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-2
99.0%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson sacked for loss of 4 yards to the APSU29 (#97 H.Bray, #53 G.Seabrooks III)Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+10
99.2%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Parson pass complete short left to #19 M.Sims caught at APSU29, for 10 yards to the APSU39 (#24 N.Rinaldi; #9 J.Gilbert). #24 N.Rinaldi injured on the playSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
99.3%
(05:58) #49 L.Leftrick punt 52 yards to the VU09 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at VU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:5399% → 99%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
99.1%
(05:53) Shotgun #3 J.Lassiter rush left for 15 yards gain to the VU24 (#22 T.Hardy), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.2%
(05:09) Shotgun #0 J.Sherrill rush right for 3 yards gain to the VU27 (#22 T.Hardy), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
99.3%
(04:27) Shotgun #3 J.Lassiter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VU30 (#93 R.Jackson; #34 E.Jones)Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-6
99.3%
(03:41) Shotgun #3 J.Lassiter rush left for 6 yards loss to the VU24 (#81 M.Denkins)Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.3%
PENALTY VU False Start (#7 C.Adams) 5 yards from VU24 to VU19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 15
OWN 19
+16
99.2%
(03:00) #37 T.Ebel punt 53 yards to the APSU28 #15 D.Harper return 16 yards to the APSU44, End Of Play PENALTY APSU Illegal Block in Back (#83 D.Ross) 10 yards from APSU44 to APSU34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 18END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:241% → 1%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+1
99.0%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Wilson rush right for 10 yards gain (1) to the APSU44 (#97 H.Bray; #20 J.Curtis) PENALTY APSU Holding (#88 J.Skoglund) 10 yards from APSU35 to APSU25Similar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 19
OWN 25
+16
99.5%
(02:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Richardson rush left for 16 yards gain to the APSU41 (#20 J.Curtis; #22 B.Cowan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:24
(05:25) Shotgun #28 S.Alexander rush middle for 18 yards gain to the APSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:24, 1ST DOWN #1 B.Berlowitz pass attempt failed
+4
PUNT · Q4 14:50
(14:52) #49 L.Leftrick punt 9 yards to the APSU27 #18 J.Broxton return 27 yards to the APSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:50 #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #37 T.Ebel, LS: #54 K.Schickel)
+3.6
TD · Q2 6:21
Blaze Berlowitz 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com