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APSU

Austin Peay 6 at Southern Miss 52

USM
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:04 · Daythan Davis run for 1 yd to the SoMis 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:01: Trey Taylor pass complete to Rashaan Coleman for 44 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield PAT MISSED) — APSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:51: Ito Smith run for 75 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:23: Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 3 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:37: Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:23: Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 49 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6APSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00APSU 4th & 11 at APSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:28USM 4th & 8 at APSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:28APSU 4th & 5 at APSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:36USM 4th & 8 at USM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:44APSU 4th & 4 at APSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:01USM 4th & 7 at USM 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00APSU 4th & 2 at APSU 38, down 1
    Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:23APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 26, down 8
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:13APSU 4th & 3 at APSU 18, down 15
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:37APSU 4th & 11 at APSU 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:03APSU 4th & 7 at APSU 40, down 22
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:13USM 4th & 6 at APSU 14, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:15USM 4th & 13 at APSU 38, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:55APSU 4th & 3 at APSU 8, down 22
    Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:23APSU 4th & 13 at APSU 12, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:34APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 39, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:41USM 4th & 11 at APSU 11, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:46APSU 4th & 3 at USM 26, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:46APSU 4th & 3 at USM 13, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:04APSU 4th & 9 at USM 9, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7APSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:36USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:01APSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:51USM Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:23USM Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:37USM Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:23USM Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:54USM Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:23USM Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Otis Gerron run for no gain to the APeay 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
98.8%
Trey Taylor run for 7 yds to the APeay 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-8
98.8%
Trey Taylor sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 8 yards to the APeay 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+1
98.8%
Evan Toby punt for 36 yds , Casey Martin returns for 1 yd to the SoMis 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:2399% → 98%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
98.6%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
98.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 2
50
+16
98.6%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SOUMISS 49 for a 1ST down AUSTINPEAY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the APeay 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
98.6%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the APeay 27Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
98.6%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-5
98.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the APeay 32Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
98.4%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+49
98.4%
Stephen Brauchle 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
98.4%
Taye Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the APeay 29Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+8
98.4%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Wesley Thomas for 8 yds to the APeay 37Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
98.4%
Trey Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
98.4%
Evan Toby punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 26 , Jalen Richard returns for no gain to the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
98.3%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 52 yds , Rashaan Coleman returns for no gain to the APeay 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
98.2%
Taye Davis run for 1 yd to the APeay 21Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
98.2%
Taye Davis run for no gain to the APeay 21Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
98.2%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Taye Davis for 5 yds to the APeay 26Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
98.2%
Evan Toby punt blocked by Jr. Picasso Nelson blocked by Jr. Picasso NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
Q1 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
98.0%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the APeay 5Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.0%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the APeay 2Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.1%
Nick Mullens run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 2:282% → 3%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
98.2%
Kendall Morris run for 4 yds to the APeay 17Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+10
98.2%
TAYLOR,Trey pass incomplete to BEARD,Jared, PENALTY USM holding (REED, Kalan) 10 yards to the APSU27, 1ST DOWN APSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
98.2%
MORRIS,Kendall rush left for loss of 4 yards to the APSU23 (RILEY, Draper;CRAYTON, Rod), PENALTY USM face mask 15 yards to the APSU42, 1ST DOWN APSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
98.1%
Trey Taylor run for 14 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.1%
Taye Davis run for no gain to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
97.4%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Rashaan Coleman for 44 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
97.6%
Ito Smith run for 17 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
97.7%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-1
97.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
97.6%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
97.6%
Matthew Moseley punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APeay 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:563% → 3%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
97.1%
Taye Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 28Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
97.1%
Taye Davis run for no gain to the APeay 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+10
97.0%
Kendall Morris run for 10 yds to the APeay 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
97.0%
Trey Taylor punt for 37 yds, downed at the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2197% → 97%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
97.4%
Ito Smith run for 75 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:283% → 3%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
97.5%
Kendall Morris run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 16Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+6
97.6%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Wesley Thomas for 6 yds to the APeay 22Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+4
97.6%
Kendall Morris run for 4 yds to the APeay 26Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
97.4%
Evan Toby punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:5297% → 98%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
97.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 11 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
97.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 7 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+37
97.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 37 yds to the APeay 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
97.4%
Justice Hayes run for 7 yds to the APeay 10Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
97.4%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the APeay 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
97.4%
MULLENS, Nick rush SM for loss of 1 yard to the APSU7 (STUART,Zach), PENALTY APSU personal foul 3 yards to the APSU3, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 3 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
97.7%
Kendall Morris run for 1 yd to the APeay 12Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+6
97.7%
Trey Taylor run for 6 yds to the APeay 18Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
97.7%
Trey Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
97.7%
Evan Toby punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APeay 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:0298% → 99%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+29
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 29 yds to the APeay 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the APeay 7Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-2
98.0%
Justice Hayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 9Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
99.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.7%
Trey Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
98.8%
Julian Franklin run for 5 yds to the APeay 36Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-6
98.7%
Trey Taylor sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 6 yards to the APeay 30Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
98.8%
Evan Toby punt for 60 yds, downed at the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16INT
8 plays · 48 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
99.0%
Jalen Richard run for 15 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.0%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.0%
Jalen Richard run for 9 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 9 yds to the APeay 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.1%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the APeay 42Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+32
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Roderick Owens return for 32 yds to the APeay 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:511% → 1%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Wesley ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.7%
Kendall Morris run for 1 yd to the APeay 38Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+2
98.8%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Juwan Davis for 2 yds to the APeay 40Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
98.8%
Evan Toby punt for 34 yds , Casey Martin returns for no gain to the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 1:4099% → 99%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 12 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+23
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 8 yds to the APeay 46 for a 1ST down AUSTINPEAY Penalty, personal foul (David Wall) to the APeay 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+21
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 21 yds to the APeay 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 4 yds to the APeay 14Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
99.1%
Stephen Brauchle 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:4599% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
98.9%
Ito Smith run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
99.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the APeay 44Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
98.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+9
98.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 9 yds to the APeay 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
99.0%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the APeay 38Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
98.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
98.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Taylor Marini, broken up by Taylor ParrisSimilar
Q3 14:15
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
98.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 37 yds, downed at the APeay 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
98.7%
Trey Taylor run for 3 yds to the APeay 4Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 4
-1
98.7%
Taye Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 3Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+5
98.7%
Taye Davis run for 5 yds to the APeay 8Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
98.7%
Evan Toby punt for 57 yds, downed at the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3799% → 100%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
98.9%
Ito Smith run for 14 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the APeay 47Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
98.9%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the APeay 44Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
98.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the APeay 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
99.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the APeay 49Similar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+49
99.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 49 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.8%
Taye Davis run for 4 yds to the APeay 19Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Taye Davis run for no gain to the APeay 19Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-7
99.8%
Trey Taylor sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the APeay 12Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 13
OWN 12
+7
99.8%
Evan Toby punt for 51 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 7 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+25
99.8%
Justice Hayes run for 25 yds to the APeay 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.8%
Justice Hayes run for 3 yds to the APeay 28Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
99.8%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the APeay 24Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+9
99.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 9 yds to the APeay 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
99.8%
Justice Hayes run for 14 yds to the APeay 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Justice Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 25INT TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:310% → 0%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Kendall Morris run for 4 yds to the APeay 29Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Trey Taylor pass complete to James Coleman for 7 yds to the APeay 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Kendall Morris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Kendall Morris, broken up by Ja'Boree PooleSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
Justin Roberson run for no gain to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Anthony Swain) to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
99.8%
Taye Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+76
99.9%
Trey Taylor pass intercepted for a TD Kalan Reed return for 76 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Taye Davis run for 3 yds to the APeay 33Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-2
99.9%
Taye Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Trey Taylor run for 8 yds to the APeay 39Similar
Q4 14:34
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Taye Davis run for no gain to the APeay 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27FG
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+30
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Justice Hayes for 30 yds to the APeay 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
99.9%
Justice Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the APeay 12Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ Thompson, broken up by Roderick OwensSimilar
Q4 14:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Justice Hayes for 1 yd to the APeay 11Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
99.9%
Parker Shaunfield 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 28MISSED FG
25 plays · 66 yds · 11:370% → 0%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Kendall Morris run for 4 yds to the APeay 29Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
Kendall Morris run for 1 yd to the APeay 30Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
100.0%
TAYLOR,Trey deep pass incomplete to BRASWELL,Jermer, PENALTY USM pass interference (MIKELL, Curtis) 15 yards to the APSU45, 1ST DOWN APSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
100.0%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Wesley Thomas for 8 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-2
100.0%
Kendall Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+4
100.0%
Kendall Morris run for 4 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
100.0%
Kendall Morris run for 1 yd to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
100.0%
Kendall Morris run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+8
100.0%
Justin Roberson run for 8 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
100.0%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Wesley Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+2
100.0%
Justin Roberson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+6
100.0%
Trey Taylor run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+6
100.0%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Rashaan Coleman for 6 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
100.0%
Justin Roberson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Justin Roberson run for no gain to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+4
100.0%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Trey Salisbury for 4 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+4
100.0%
Trey Taylor pass complete to Wesley Thomas for 4 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
100.0%
Kendall Morris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
100.0%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
100.0%
Kendall Morris run for 3 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
100.0%
Trey Taylor pass incomplete to Jermer BraswellSimilar
Q4 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+25
100.0%
Logan Birchfield 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
Daythan Davis run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
100.0%
Daythan Davis run for 1 yd to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:37
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
+1
TD · Q3 9:23
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 49 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q1 3:01
Trey Taylor pass complete to Rashaan Coleman for 44 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield PAT MISSED)
-0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com