Alabama State
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2021
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Alabama State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Alabama State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Alabama State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at AUBQ3 14:10 4th & 6 at AUB 39, down 20Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at AUBQ2 6:14 4th & 3 at AUB 3, down 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at AUBQ1 6:17 4th & 2 at ALST 44, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at AUBQ2 2:26 4th & 2 at ALST 23, down 20Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at AUBQ1 14:04 4th & 2 at ALST 33, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (11)
- Q1 14:044th & 2 at ALST 33, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q1 6:174th & 2 at ALST 44, down 3 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 0:284th & 13 at ALST 22, down 6 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 6:144th & 3 at AUB 3, down 13 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 4:474th & 9 at ALST 26, down 20 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:264th & 2 at ALST 23, down 20 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 14:104th & 6 at AUB 39, down 20 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 3:394th & 6 at ALST 41, down 41 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 0:474th & 8 at ALST 27, down 48 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 13:264th & 5 at ALST 30, down 55 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 3:144th & 10 at ALST 25, down 62 · PuntedAgreed
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2021
Expected wins adds up Alabama State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2021
Every game starts at Alabama State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.01
Game by game
Points of win probability, from Alabama State's side.
Season arc, 2021
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Alabama State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2021
The largest single-play change in Alabama State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Alabama State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Alabama State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Alabama State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Alabama State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.