Alabama State
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2019
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Alabama State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Alabama State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Alabama State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and every call that differed was a close one. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at FSUQ3 7:37 4th & 2 at FSU 21, down 16Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
- at FSUQ1 12:31 4th & 1 at FSU 2, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
- at FSUQ2 5:48 4th & 4 at FSU 18, down 18Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (23)
- Q1 15:004th & 2 at ALST 33, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 7:434th & 2 at ALST 33, down 1 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 4:124th & 2 at ALST 43, down 1 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 12:364th & 27 at ALST 3, down 1 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 9:184th & 9 at ALST 43, down 4 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 4:394th & 6 at ALST 29, down 11 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:444th & 7 at ALST 27, down 11 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 12:534th & 10 at ALST 28, down 11 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 2:174th & 8 at ALST 16, down 5 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:154th & 5 at ALST 33, down 5 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 10:074th & 1 at UAB 1, down 5 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 2:544th & 1 at ALST 26, down 5 · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 12:314th & 1 at FSU 2, tied · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q1 11:244th & 8 at ALST 27, down 4 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 6:294th & 3 at ALST 32, down 11 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 14:104th & 9 at FSU 21, down 11 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 8:254th & 7 at FSU 42, down 18 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 5:484th & 4 at FSU 18, down 18 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 0:524th & 15 at FSU 28, down 15 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 7:374th & 2 at FSU 21, down 16 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q4 13:494th & 7 at ALST 38, down 23 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:184th & 11 at ALST 35, down 23 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:154th & 16 at ALST 46, down 30 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2019
Expected wins adds up Alabama State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2019
Every game starts at Alabama State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.08
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.12
Game by game
- UABL 19-24 at UAB1% → 6%Before kickoff −49 · On the field +5: Scoreboard −6
- FSUL 12-49 at FSU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
Points of win probability, from Alabama State's side.
Season arc, 2019
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Alabama State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2019
The largest single-play change in Alabama State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Alabama State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Alabama State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Alabama State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Alabama State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.