UC Davis
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2018
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what UC Davis allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for UC Davis.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than UC Davis's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.01 of the 0.03 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at SJSUQ3 10:19 4th & 9 at SJSU 33, up 16Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.2 pts
- at STANQ3 15:00 4th & 10 at UCD 25, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.4 pts
- at SJSUQ2 8:12 4th & 5 at midfield, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
- at SJSUQ3 2:04 4th & 6 at SJSU 46, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
- at STANQ2 0:46 4th & 17 at UCD 47, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.3 pts
- at STANQ2 0:33 4th & 3 at STAN 24, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.2 pts
- at SJSUQ1 5:54 4th & 7 at SJSU 40, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at STANQ1 12:13 4th & 1 at UCD 44, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
Every call this season (23)
- Q1 7:594th & 8 at SJSU 34, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 5:544th & 7 at SJSU 40, down 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 8:124th & 5 at midfield, up 14 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 2:264th & 12 at UCD 35, up 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 14:464th & 6 at UCD 40, up 16 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 13:044th & 17 at UCD 48, up 16 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 10:194th & 9 at SJSU 33, up 16 · Punted−1.2 pts
- Q3 2:044th & 6 at SJSU 46, up 13 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 7:304th & 6 at UCD 41, up 13 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 3:174th & 6 at SJSU 16, up 13 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 12:134th & 1 at UCD 44, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q1 8:424th & 7 at STAN 9, tied · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 7:164th & 6 at STAN 37, up 3 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 13:264th & 9 at UCD 26, down 4 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 7:284th & 12 at UCD 34, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:464th & 17 at UCD 47, down 14 · Went for itClose call
- Q2 0:334th & 3 at STAN 24, down 14 · Went for itClose call
- Q3 15:004th & 10 at UCD 25, down 14 · Went for itClose call
- Q3 8:344th & 11 at STAN 26, down 17 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 6:264th & 14 at UCD 34, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 2:384th & 4 at STAN 36, down 24 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 6:554th & 7 at UCD 9, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 3:434th & 11 at UCD 34, down 27 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2018
Expected wins adds up UC Davis's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2018
Every game starts at UC Davis's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard+0.51
- Possession & field position−0.01
- Clock+0.04
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.11
Game by game
- SJSUW 44-38 at SJSU27% → 94%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +55, Clock +4
- STANL 10-30 at STAN3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −4
Points of win probability, from UC Davis's side.
Closest call
UCD 19-17 TLSA (2021) - UC Davis dropped to a 7.6% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2018
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is UC Davis's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2018
The largest single-play change in UC Davis's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
UC Davis's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
UC Davis's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
UC Davis's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
UC Davis's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.