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UCD

UC Davis 17 at Nevada 31

NEV
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2015 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadUCD aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreUCD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Eric Kreitz kickoff for 46 yds, downed at the Nevad 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:47: Don Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +6.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:27: Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +7.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:47: Brady Stuart 26 yd FG GOOD — UCD win probability +5.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:48: Brent Zuzo 27 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +4.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:56: Ben Scott pass complete to Ramon Vargas for 5 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK) — UCD win probability +5.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCD made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:00UCD 4th & 6 at NEV 28, tied
    Close callWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:10UCD 4th & 3 at NEV 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:41UCD 4th & 7 at UCD 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:47UCD 4th & 9 at NEV 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−5.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:55NEV 4th & 17 at UCD 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−2.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−1.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:34UCD 4th & 4 at UCD 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:02NEV 4th & 14 at UCD 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:34UCD 4th & 2 at NEV 42, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−3.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:48NEV 4th & 10 at UCD 10, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:56UCD 4th & 3 at NEV 5, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:04UCD 4th & 7 at UCD 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:02NEV 4th & 18 at UCD 33, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCD made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q1 4:10NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:47NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:27NEV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:56UCD Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:11NEV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:02UCD Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCDDrive 1DOWNS
14 plays · 50 yds · 4:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.3%
Ben Scott pass complete to Alex Cannon for 8 yds to the UCDav 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
72.3%
Justin Williams run for 3 yds to the UCDav 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
72.1%
Ben Scott pass complete to Derek Baljeu for 5 yds to the UCDav 41Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
72.0%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 4 yds to the UCDav 45Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
72.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
72.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 15 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
71.9%
UC DAVIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-9
71.4%
Ben Scott sacked by Salesa Faraimo for a loss of 9 yards to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 24
OPP 46
+6
71.5%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 6 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 18
OPP 40
+12
71.6%
Ben Scott pass complete to Brandyn Lee for 12 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 11:00
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+3
71.6%
Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 3 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3572% → 75%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
72.3%
Don Jackson run for 13 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
72.5%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
72.5%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+18
72.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 18 yds to the UCDav 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
72.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Brayden Sanchez for 9 yds to the UCDav 31Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+13
73.1%
Don Jackson run for 13 yds to the UCDav 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
73.3%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the UCDav 16Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
73.3%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+14
73.0%
STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to HENDERSON, H., PENALTY UCD pass interference (Patrick Wells) 14 yards to the UCD2, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
73.3%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the UCDav 1Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.3%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the UCDav 1Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.2%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.0%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 4 yds to the UCDav 29Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
74.8%
Ben Scott pass incomplete, PENALTY NEV holding (MEYER, Kalei) 10 yards to the UCD39, 1ST DOWN UCD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
74.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 16 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
74.0%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 2 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+5
74.0%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
74.0%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Chris MartinSimilar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
74.4%
Colby Wadman punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2775% → 82%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
74.5%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
74.5%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+18
74.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Brayden Sanchez for 18 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
75.3%
Tyler Stewart run for 8 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
75.6%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the UCDav 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
75.7%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the UCDav 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+10
75.6%
Tyler Stewart run for 10 yds to the UCDav 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
75.7%
Don Jackson run for 22 yds to the UCDav 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
76.0%
UC DAVIS Penalty, personal foul (Ryan Bua) to the UCDav 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
82.3%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
79.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCDav 43Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
79.8%
Ben Scott pass incomplete, broken up by Ian SeauSimilar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
80.0%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Chris Martin, broken up by Salesa FaraimoSimilar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
80.4%
Colby Wadman punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:1382% → 93%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
81.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 7 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
82.0%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
82.0%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+16
81.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 16 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
82.6%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the UCDav 49Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+11
82.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 11 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
82.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 18 yds to the UCDav 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
82.9%
Tyler Stewart run for 9 yds to the UCDav 11Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+2
82.9%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the UCDav 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
82.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 7 yds to the UCDav 2Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 7FG
19 plays · 66 yds · 5:4010% → 14%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.8%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 13 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
89.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCDav 39Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
89.5%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Zach BomanSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+9
89.6%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 9 yds to the UCDav 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
89.2%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 8 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+13
88.6%
Ben Scott pass complete to Justin Williams for 13 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
88.2%
Justin Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+7
88.7%
Ben Scott pass complete to Ramon Vargas for 7 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+7
88.7%
Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 7 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
88.0%
Justin Williams run for 1 yd to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
88.0%
Ben Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+15
88.8%
Ben Scott pass complete to Ramon Vargas for 15 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
90.4%
UC DAVIS Penalty, false start (Chris Schneider) to the Nevad 9Similar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.4%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Ramon VargasSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.4%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Manusamoa LuugaSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.0%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Ramon Vargas, broken up by Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
85.9%
Brady Stuart 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
89.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
87.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+28
87.7%
Don Jackson run for 28 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-12
88.1%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Kyle DeVaughn for a loss of 12 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 22
50
0
88.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 22
50
+5
87.4%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the UCDav 45Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
86.7%
Alex Boy punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.7%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Manusamoa LuugaSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
88.9%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 2 yds to the UCDav 22Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+4
89.0%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 4 yds to the UCDav 26Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
89.0%
Colby Wadman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
92.4%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
92.7%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+15
92.5%
James Butler run for 15 yds to the UCDav 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
92.8%
Tyler Stewart run for 1 yd to the UCDav 40Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+1
92.7%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the UCDav 39Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-6
92.6%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Travon Brooks for a loss of 6 yards to the UCDav 45 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
91.7%
Alex Boy punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
92.2%
Ben Scott pass complete to Ramon Vargas for 6 yds to the UCDav 26Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
91.7%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 10 yds to the UCDav 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
91.7%
Ben Scott pass complete to Zach Boman for 4 yds to the UCDav 40Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
91.6%
Manusamoa Luuga run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCDav 35Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
92.3%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Manusamoa LuugaSimilar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+15
92.3%
Colby Wadman punt 40 yards to the NEV25, fair catch by CELIS, Andrew, PENALTY NEV roughing the kicker 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN UCD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
50
0
91.4%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Justin Williams, broken up by Faigofie FaaitualaSimilar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 10
50
+8
91.5%
Justin Williams run for 8 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
91.2%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Derek Baljeu UC DAVIS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
91.6%
Colby Wadman punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13FG
14 plays · 77 yds · 2:4695% → 98%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
94.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+30
94.7%
Don Jackson run for 30 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
95.1%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
95.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+3
94.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Don Jackson for 3 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+37
94.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 37 yds to the UCDav 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
95.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+12
94.7%
Tyler Stewart run for 12 yds to the UCDav 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
94.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Zach JonesSimilar
Q3 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
94.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 5 yds to the UCDav 5Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 1:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
94.0%
NEVADA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 10Similar
Q3 0:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
98.4%
Brent Zuzo 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 14TD
17 plays · 77 yds · 8:452% → 8%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
97.7%
Manusamoa Luuga run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCDav 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+1
98.1%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd to the UCDav 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+16
98.1%
Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 16 yds to the UCDav 37 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
97.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Zach Boman for 10 yds to the UCDav 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
97.9%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 4 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-2
97.9%
Manusamoa Luuga run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+5
97.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Corey Collins for 6 yards to the NEV45 (YATES, Rykeem), PENALTY NEV offside (REED, Malik) 5 yards to the NEV46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+6
97.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Corey Collins for 6 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
97.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Derek Baljeu for 5 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+1
97.4%
Ben Scott pass complete to Zach Boman for 1 yd to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+10
97.7%
Ben Scott pass complete to Luke Williams for 10 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
97.5%
Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 12 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
97.4%
Justin Williams run for 4 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
97.4%
Ben Scott pass complete to Derek Baljeu for 3 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
97.6%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the Nevad 5Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+5
92.1%
Ben Scott pass complete to Ramon Vargas for 5 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:4297% → 100%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
96.5%
James Butler run for 17 yds to the UCDav 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
96.5%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the UCDav 21Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
96.5%
Tyler Stewart run for 6 yds to the UCDav 15Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
99.5%
Tyler Stewart run for 15 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.3%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Ramon Vargas, broken up by Faigofie FaaitualaSimilar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
99.3%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 3 yds to the UCDav 21Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
99.3%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Alex Cannon, broken up by Randy UzomaSimilar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+40
99.3%
Colby Wadman punt for 44 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 40 yds to the UCDav 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.6%
Hunter Fralick pass incomplete to Austin CarrowSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
99.6%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Nathan Goltry) to the UCDav 35Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+2
99.6%
Blake Wright run for 2 yds to the UCDav 33Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 18
OPP 33
0
99.5%
Hunter Fralick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 18
OPP 33
0
99.5%
Hunter Fralick pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 18TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 2:361% → 2%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.3%
Ben Scott pass complete to Justin Williams for 5 yds to the UCDav 38Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+7
99.3%
Ben Scott pass complete to Justin Williams for 7 yds to the UCDav 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.3%
Ben Scott pass complete to Zach Boman for 8 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+19
99.3%
Ben Scott pass complete to Justin Williams for 19 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.2%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 3 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+3
99.2%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 3 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+6
99.2%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 6 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.2%
Ben Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
99.2%
Ben Scott pass complete to Luke Williams for 9 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
99.4%
Justin Williams run for 3 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.4%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 1 yd to the Nevad 3Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.1%
Ben Scott run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:27
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q2 11:47
Don Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q4 6:56
Ben Scott pass complete to Ramon Vargas for 5 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)
-5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com