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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadUCD aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreUCD score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:55 · Ben Rhyne punt for 35 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:20: Colton Silveria run for 2 yds to the UCDav 10 — UCD win probability +8.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:45: Ricky Seale run for 1 yd to the Stanf 14 — STAN win probability +6.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:30: Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the UCDav 4 — UCD win probability +12.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 14:21: Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 43 — STAN win probability +10.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:55: Ben Rhyne punt for 35 yds for a touchback — STAN win probability +28.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 3UCD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 12:07UCD 4th & 17 at UCD 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 7:59UCD 4th & 5 at UCD 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 12:51STAN 4th & 6 at UCD 39, tiedClose callPunted · 93.0% before the snapGo for it93.2%40% to convertField goal92.8%−0.436% to makePuntTheir call92.8%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:34STAN 4th & 9 at UCD 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.5%−0.432% to convertField goal84.7%−1.227% to makePuntTheir call85.9%average punt
- Q4 8:28UCD 4th & 4 at UCD 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snapGo for it25.7%−0.646% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.3%average punt
- Q4 6:51UCD 4th & 3 at UCD 25, tiedClose callPunted · 31.8% before the snapGo for it31.7%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.9%−0.9average punt
- Q4 2:55STAN 4th & 20 at UCD 35, tiedNumbers favored field goal by 5.6 ptsPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it52.2%−7.110% to convertField goal59.3%45% to makePuntTheir call53.7%−5.6average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCDDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD6 plays · -7 yds · 2:430% → 1%
UCDDrive 2TD10 plays · 0 yds · 3:511% → 1%
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+4
99.5%
London Lacy pass complete to Chris Martin for 4 yds to the UCDav 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
99.4%
London Lacy pass complete to Chris Martin for 14 yds to the UCDav 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+14
99.3%
Colby Wadman punt for 41 yds , Ty Montgomery returns for 14 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3995% → 94%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
95.3%
Kelsey Young run for 4 yds to the UCDav 39 Kelsey Young fumbled, forced by Charles Boyett, recovered by StanfSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 4PUNT2 plays · 21 yds · 0:3814% → 15%
STANDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 43 yds · 4:1191% → 87%
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+5
90.4%
Evan Crower pass complete to Jeff Trojan for 5 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+8
89.5%
Evan Crower pass complete to Jordan Pratt for 8 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
90.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the UCDav 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
87.0%
Ben Rhyne punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charles Boyett at the UCDav 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0226% → 26%
Q4 8:28
4TH & 4
OWN 8
+41
73.9%
Colby Wadman punt for 47 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 41 yds to the UCDav 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7FUMBLE10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2184% → 79%
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
84.6%
Evan Crower pass complete to Austin Hooper for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+12
84.0%
Evan Crower pass complete to Greg Taboada for 12 yds to the UCDav 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
84.0%
Evan Crower pass complete to Austin Hooper for 27 yds to the UCDav 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 0
OPP 1
-1
79.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 2 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCDav Russell ReederSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0932% → 32%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
68.0%
London Lacy pass complete to Mark Martindale for 5 yds to the UCDav 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD7 plays · 14 yds · 3:4573% → 93%
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+13
72.3%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Barry Sanders for 13 yds to the UCDav 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
72.6%
Ryan Burns run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCDav 30 Ryan Burns fumbled, recovered by Stanf Ryan Burns STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 13
OPP 28
-7
65.0%
Ryan Burns sacked by Luke Wood for a loss of 7 yards to the UCDav 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:55
Ben Rhyne punt for 35 yds for a touchback
+28
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:30
Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the UCDav 4
-12.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:21
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 43
+10