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UCD

UC Davis 10 at Stanford 30

STAN
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadUCD aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreUCD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:33 · Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan Doss
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+33.2Home team on offense+10.4Score differential+4.2Garbage-time factor+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 8:42: Max O'Rourke 26 yd FG GOOD — UCD win probability +0.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 15:00: K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Vincent White — UCD win probability +1.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 2:16: K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 8 yds for a TD UC DAVIS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 12:38: Jet Toner 33 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:38: Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 10 of 10UCD made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00STAN 4th & 9 at UCD 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:13UCD 4th & 1 at UCD 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:42UCD 4th & 7 at STAN 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:16UCD 4th & 6 at STAN 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:38STAN 4th & 8 at UCD 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:26UCD 4th & 9 at UCD 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:44STAN 4th & 1 at UCD 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:28STAN 4th & 13 at UCD 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:28UCD 4th & 12 at UCD 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:46UCD 4th & 17 at UCD 47, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:33UCD 4th & 3 at STAN 24, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00UCD 4th & 10 at UCD 25, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:38STAN 4th & 6 at UCD 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:34UCD 4th & 11 at STAN 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:34STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:26UCD 4th & 14 at UCD 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:38UCD 4th & 4 at STAN 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:19STAN 4th & 7 at UCD 47, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:25STAN 4th & 3 at UCD 8, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:55UCD 4th & 7 at UCD 9, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:43STAN 4th & 14 at UCD 29, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:43UCD 4th & 11 at UCD 34, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:59STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 11, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:26STAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:16STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:38STAN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
97.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 19 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
97.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+8
97.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 8 yds to the UCDav 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
97.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the UCDav 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
97.5%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
97.5%
Jake Bailey punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCDav 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
97.1%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+14
97.1%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 14 yds to the UCDav 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
97.1%
Jake Maier pass complete to Ulonzo Gilliam for 9 yds to the UCDav 44Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
97.0%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Khris VaughnSimilar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
97.1%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan Doss, broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
97.1%
Daniel Whelan punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
96.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 10Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+9
96.8%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Nas Anesi return for 9 yds to the Stanf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 4FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:073% → 4%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
96.6%
Carson Crawford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 14Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+5
96.6%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 5 yds to the Stanf 9Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
96.6%
Carson Crawford pass incomplete to Jake Maier, broken up by Joey AlfieriSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
96.4%
Max O'Rourke 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5INT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
96.4%
Trevor Speights run for 2 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-10
96.4%
Speights,T rush for 13 yards to the STAN45 (PARENTEAU, Ryan), PENALTY STAN holding (Smith,K) 10 yards to the STAN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 18
OWN 22
0
96.3%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+6
96.3%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Isaiah Thomas return for 6 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
96.0%
Ulonzo Gilliam run for 2 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
96.0%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Wesley Preece, broken up by Mustafa BranchSimilar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+2
96.0%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
96.1%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Khris VaughnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
14 plays · 63 yds · 7:1296% → 95%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
95.7%
Trevor Speights run for 11 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
95.8%
Trevor Speights run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 8
50
+1
95.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 1 yd to the UCDav 49Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+11
95.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 11 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
95.8%
K.J. Costello sacked by Brandon Jamison for a loss of 9 yards to the UCDav 47Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 19
OPP 47
-3
95.7%
Trevor Speights run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 22
50
+14
95.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trevor Speights for 14 yds to the UCDav 36Similar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+11
95.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 11 yds to the UCDav 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
95.9%
Trevor Speights run for 4 yds to the UCDav 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
94.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Vincent WhiteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+8
94.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 8 yds to the UCDav 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
94.5%
Trevor Speights run for 4 yds to the UCDav 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
94.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Scooter HarringtonSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
94.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 9 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.4%
Tehran Thomas run for 3 yds to the UCDav 28Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
94.4%
Tehran Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 26Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
94.5%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan Doss, broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
94.7%
Daniel Whelan punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCDav 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:1694% → 94%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
94.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 13 yds to the UCDav 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
94.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 10 yds to the UCDav 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
94.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 8 yds to the UCDav 13Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 2
OPP 13
0
94.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+1
94.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the UCDav 12Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
94.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the UCDav 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
94.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
94.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the UCDav 10Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
94.3%
K.J. Costello sacked by Mason Moe for a loss of 3 yards to the UCDav 13Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
94.1%
Jet Toner 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.1%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 8 yds to the UCDav 33Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
93.7%
Tehran Thomas run for 3 yds to the UCDav 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.9%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
94.0%
UC DAVIS Penalty, false start (Kooper Richardson) to the UCDav 31Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Wesley PreeceSimilar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+3
94.3%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 3 yds to the UCDav 34Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 12
OPP 0
0
94.0%
UC DAVIS Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the UCDav 34Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
94.4%
Daniel Whelan punt for 28 yds, downed at the Stanf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:2594% → 96%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
94.2%
Trevor Speights run for 10 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.4%
K.J. Costello run for no gain to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
94.3%
Speights,T rush for no gain to the STAN48 (PEACOCK, Cade), PENALTY UCD illegal use of hands (OCANSEY, Roland) 15 yards to the UCD37, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
94.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
93.9%
Trevor Speights run for 15 yds to the UCDav 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
94.0%
Trevor Speights run for 2 yds to the UCDav 20Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+12
94.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 12 yds to the UCDav 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 8 yds for a TD UC DAVIS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 12DOWNS
16 plays · 51 yds · 1:435% → 5%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.0%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 8 yds to the UCDav 33Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
94.7%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 8 yds to the UCDav 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
94.8%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 13 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
94.5%
MAIER, Jake pass complete to CRAWFORD, C. for 6 yards to the STAN40, PENALTY STAN offside (Swann,J) 5 yards to the STAN41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 5
OPP 41
0
94.4%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan Doss, broken up by Alijah HolderSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
94.4%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Elias JbeilySimilar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+3
94.6%
Jake Maier pass complete to Ulonzo Gilliam for 3 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 2
OPP 38
-15
94.9%
MAIER, Jake pass complete to DOSS, Keelan for 5 yards to the STAN33, out-of-bounds (Okereke,B), PENALTY UCD pass interference (SKEPTARIS, C.) 15 yards to the UCD47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 17
OWN 47
+22
95.5%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 22 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.7%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Wesley PreeceSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
94.8%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 7 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
95.0%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Ulonzo GilliamSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 3
OPP 24
0
95.1%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:1396% → 96%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
95.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 9 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+18
96.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 18 yds to the UCDav 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron ScarlettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Namane Modise run for no gain to the UCDav 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-6
95.7%
Isiah Olave run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCDav 19 Isiah Olave fumbled, recovered by StanfSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2696% → 96%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
95.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trevor SpeightsSimilar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
95.8%
Trevor Speights run for 2 yds to the UCDav 17Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-5
95.7%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (Colby Parkinson) to the UCDav 22Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+7
95.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 7 yds to the UCDav 15Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
96.1%
Jet Toner 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 16MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:044% → 4%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.4%
Ulonzo Gilliam run for 1 yd to the UCDav 26Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
96.4%
Ulonzo Gilliam run for 1 yd to the UCDav 27Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+25
96.5%
Jake Maier pass complete to Wesley Preece for 25 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
95.9%
Ulonzo Gilliam run for 3 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
96.0%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Khris Vaughn, broken up by Alijah HolderSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+20
96.0%
Jake Maier pass complete to Ulonzo Gilliam for 20 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.6%
Carson Crawford pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
95.7%
Ulonzo Gilliam run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
96.1%
Carson Crawford pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
96.2%
Max O'Rourke 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
97.2%
Speights,T rush for 18 yards to the STAN44 (BAUMGART, A.;KING, Devon), PENALTY STAN holding (Fanaika,B) 10 yards to the STAN16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+6
97.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 6 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+8
97.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 8 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
97.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
96.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Thomas at the UCDav 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
96.7%
Jake Maier pass complete to Darius Livingston for 9 yds to the UCDav 32Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+6
96.4%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 6 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.5%
Jake Maier pass complete to Darius Livingston for no gain to the UCDav 38Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
96.5%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 6 yds to the UCDav 44Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-5
96.5%
UC DAVIS Penalty, false start (Wesley Preece) to the UCDav 39Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-5
96.6%
UC DAVIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 34Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
96.8%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Tehran ThomasSimilar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+22
96.8%
Daniel Whelan punt for 46 yds , Trenton Irwin returns for 22 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:4397% → 99%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+53
97.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 53 yds to the UCDav 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 20INT
14 plays · 68 yds · 2:381% → 1%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+33
98.9%
Namane Modise run for 33 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.8%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Wesley PreeceSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
98.8%
Jake Maier pass complete to Namane Modise for 6 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
98.8%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Keelan Doss, broken up by Alijah HolderSimilar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+7
98.8%
Jake Maier pass complete to Namane Modise for 7 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
98.6%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 4 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
98.6%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Justin Kraft, broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
98.7%
MODISE, Namane rush for 3 yards to the STAN22 (Reid,G;Buncom,F), PENALTY STAN offside (Reid,G) 5 yards to the STAN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+4
98.7%
Tehran Thomas run for 4 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.6%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Justin KraftSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
98.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Justin Kraft for 9 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
99.0%
Jake Maier pass intercepted Thomas Booker return for no gain to the Stanf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+38
99.2%
Trevor Speights run for 38 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
50
0
99.2%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
50
+3
99.2%
Dorian Maddox run for 3 yds to the UCDav 47Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Jake Bailey punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCDav 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 22INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.2%
Namane Modise run for 2 yds to the UCDav 17Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+8
99.2%
Hunter Rodrigues pass complete to Khris Vaughn for 8 yds to the UCDav 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.2%
Hunter Rodrigues pass complete to Matthew Hyman for 4 yds to the UCDav 29Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.2%
Namane Modise run for 5 yds to the UCDav 34Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.2%
Namane Modise run for 1 yd to the UCDav 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.2%
Hunter Rodrigues pass complete to Elias Jbeily for 6 yds to the UCDav 41Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+32
99.2%
Hunter Rodrigues pass intercepted Alameen Murphy return for 32 yds to the UCDav 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.3%
Dorian Maddox run for 4 yds to the UCDav 11Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-2
99.3%
Dorian Maddox run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 13Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+5
99.3%
Davis Mills run for 5 yds to the UCDav 8Similar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+2
99.3%
Dorian Maddox run for 2 yds to the UCDav 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:271% → 0%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
99.4%
Mitchell Layton run for 1 yd to the UCDav 7Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+1
99.4%
Mitchell Layton run for 1 yd to the UCDav 8Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+1
99.6%
Mitchell Layton run for 1 yd to the UCDav 9Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+30
99.6%
Daniel Whelan punt for 46 yds , Michael Wilson returns for 30 yds to the UCDav 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25FG
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
99.6%
Dorian Maddox run for 2 yds to the UCDav 23Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-10
99.6%
Mills,D rush for 8 yards to the UCD15, out-of-bounds, PENALTY STAN holding (Logan,D) 10 yards to the UCD33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 18
OPP 33
-5
99.8%
Maddox,D rush for 14 yards to the UCD19 (LEE, Brandyn;TRIMBLE, Cam), PENALTY STAN illegal shift (Booker,T) 5 yards to the UCD38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 23
OPP 38
+2
99.7%
Dorian Maddox run for 2 yds to the UCDav 36Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 21
OPP 36
+7
99.7%
Dorian Maddox run for 7 yds to the UCDav 29Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
99.9%
Jet Toner 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Hunter Rodrigues pass incomplete to Lance Babb IISimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
100.0%
Mitchell Layton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 34Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Hunter Rodrigues pass complete to Mitchell Layton for no gain to the UCDav 34Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+7
100.0%
Daniel Whelan punt for 57 yds , Michael Wilson returns for 7 yds to the Stanf 41 STANFORD Penalty, illegal block (8 Yards) to the Stanf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
100.0%
Maddox,D rush for 7 yards to the STAN15 (SAYLES, Terrell), PENALTY STAN holding (Powell,D) 4 yards to the STAN4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 14
OWN 4
-2
100.0%
Woods,J rush for 12 yards to the STAN16 (PERKINS, Evan), PENALTY STAN holding 2 yards to the STAN2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 16
OWN 2
+3
100.0%
Justus Woods run for 3 yds to the Stanf 5Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 13
OWN 5
0
100.0%
Jack West pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 13
OWN 5
+6
100.0%
Dorian Maddox run for 6 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
100.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 28Uncategorized
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
100.0%
Hunter Rodrigues run for 1 yd to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+20
100.0%
Hunter Rodrigues pass complete to Matthew Hyman for 20 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:38
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)
+1.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 15:00
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Vincent White
-1.4
TD · Q2 2:16
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 8 yds for a TD UC DAVIS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Jet Toner KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com