Southern
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2015
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Southern allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Southern.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Southern's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at LTQ2 10:21 4th & 4 at LT 27, down 37Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
- at UGAQ2 4:55 4th & 4 at midfield, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at LTQ2 4:00 4th & 3 at SOU 27, down 44Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at LTQ4 5:26 4th & 8 at LT 11, down 47Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at UGAQ4 3:52 4th & 11 at UGA 32, down 42Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at UGAQ2 8:49 4th & 8 at UGA 32, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at UGAQ3 3:19 4th & 2 at SOU 33, down 35Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (22)
- Q1 15:004th & 7 at SOU 48, down 16 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 7:284th & 27 at SOU 2, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 5:364th & 11 at SOU 35, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 13:474th & 7 at SOU 28, down 23 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:354th & 10 at SOU 24, down 30 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 10:214th & 4 at LT 27, down 37 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 6:334th & 13 at SOU 23, down 44 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 4:004th & 3 at SOU 27, down 44 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 3:124th & 8 at SOU 42, down 44 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 5:264th & 8 at LT 11, down 47 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 12:324th & 22 at SOU 16, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 8:384th & 6 at SOU 17, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 3:344th & 11 at UGA 31, down 10 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 8:494th & 8 at UGA 32, down 17 · Went for itClose call
- Q2 4:554th & 4 at midfield, down 11 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 0:144th & 11 at midfield, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 10:044th & 16 at SOU 3, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 6:184th & 9 at SOU 26, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 3:194th & 2 at SOU 33, down 35 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 13:524th & 9 at SOU 43, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 7:014th & 15 at SOU 18, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 3:524th & 11 at UGA 32, down 42 · Went for itClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2015
Expected wins adds up Southern's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2015
Every game starts at Southern's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.34
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.02
Game by game
- LTL 15-62 at LT32% → 0%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −33
- UGAL 6-48 at UGA0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
Points of win probability, from Southern's side.
Season arc, 2015
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Southern's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2015
The largest single-play change in Southern's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Southern's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Southern's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Southern's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Southern's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.