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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadSOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreSOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Travien Benjamin run for 10 yds to the Sthrn 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:52: Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 26 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +1.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:49: Zion Williams 19 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick) — TROY win probability +2.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SOU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 7:34: Martel Fontenot 31 yd FG GOOD — SOU win probability +1.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: SOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:08: Taylor Powell pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 17 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:44: Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brooks Buce PAT BLOCKED) — TROY win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 6 at SOU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.0%40% to convertField goal93.9%−0.130% to makePunt94.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:02TROY 4th & 1 at SOU 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.5%59% to convertField goal92.4%−0.294% to makePunt91.9%−0.7average punt
- Q1 6:55SOU 4th & 15 at SOU 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q1 2:32SOU 4th & 9 at SOU 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 7:34SOU 4th & 6 at TROY 14, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call4.0%84% to makePunt2.4%−1.6average punt
- Q3 12:16SOU 4th & 9 at SOU 36, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 7:03SOU 4th & 2 at SOU 35, down 38Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 5:13TROY 4th & 17 at TROY 26, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 13:27SOU 4th & 3 at TROY 45, down 45Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:02TROY 4th & 7 at SOU 36, up 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%37% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.142% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 9:02TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:52TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:49TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:08TROY Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:44TROY Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:59TROY Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:04TROY Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:02TROY Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTROYDrive 1DOWNS13 plays · 76 yds · 5:5894% → 93%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
93.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to AJ Lewis for 8 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
93.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 19 yds to the Sthrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+4
93.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 4 yds to the Sthrn 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+22
93.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 22 yds to the Sthrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
93.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds to the Sthrn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 2:077% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:0393% → 94%
Q1 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+8
92.7%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 8 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
92.9%
SOUTHERN Penalty, Roughing the Passer on D.Cotton enforced (Davin Cotton) to the Sthrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
93.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 26 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 2:207% → 7%
TROYDrive 5INT8 plays · 78 yds · 2:4694% → 94%
Q1 2:32
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+25
93.4%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 25 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
93.7%
Taylor Powell pass complete to B.J. Smith for 10 yds to the Sthrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
93.8%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 28 yds to the Sthrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 6INT TD3 plays · 2 yds · 0:577% → 4%
SOUDrive 7FG12 plays · 64 yds · 6:154% → 6%
Q2 13:49
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
95.5%
Ladarius Skelton pass complete to Devon Benn for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+20
95.6%
Ladarius Skelton pass complete to Jamar Washington for 20 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
95.1%
Ladarius Skelton pass complete to Tyler Kirkwood for 11 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2695% → 98%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.5%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Reggie Todd for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
94.5%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+16
94.4%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 16 yds to the Sthrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
94.5%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 9 yds to the Sthrn 20Similar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.7%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 17 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 9INT4 plays · 19 yds · 1:355% → 2%
TROYDrive 10TD3 plays · 11 yds · 0:4997% → 99%
SOUDrive 11INT3 plays · 12 yds · 0:381% → 1%
TROYDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 2:441% → 1%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+8
99.2%
Ladarius Skelton pass complete to Tyler Kirkwood for 8 yds to the Sthrn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD5 plays · 58 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q3 12:16
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+5
99.5%
#0 K.Vidal rush up the middle for a loss of 8 yards to the TRY35 (#32 J.Lewis), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY SOU Offsides on #32 J.Lewis enforced 5 yards from the TRY43 to the TRY48 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+15
99.5%
SOUTHERN Penalty, Targeting on L.Barber enforced (Lyston Barber) to the Sthrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
99.6%
John Lampley pass complete to Brandon Hinton for a loss of 3 yards to the Sthrn 13Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+9
99.6%
John Lampley pass complete to Craig Nelson for 9 yds to the Sthrn 22Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+5
99.6%
John Lampley pass complete to Craig Nelson for 5 yds to the Sthrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q3 7:03
2ND & 11
OWN 32
-10
99.7%
#7 T.Powell scrambles to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the TRY42 (#56 T.Nash), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY TRY Holding on #65 D.Bradshaw enforced 10 yards from the TRY32 to the TRY22 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 17
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Chandler Whitfield at the Sthrn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 17INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:180% → 0%
TROYDrive 18TD6 plays · 36 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 3:370% → 0%
TROYDrive 20TD18 plays · 86 yds · 10:25100% → 100%
Q4 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+6
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 6 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-10
99.9%
#1 J.Woods rush up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the TRY30 (#35 K.Davis), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY TRY Holding on #53 B.Hudson enforced 10 yards from the TRY22 to the TRY12 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 23
OWN 12
+30
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 30 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+18
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 18 yds to the Sthrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 4 yds to the Sthrn 35Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+11
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 11 yds to the Sthrn 10Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
SOUTHERN Penalty, Offsides (Andre Jones) to the Sthrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 21END OF GAME3 plays · 16 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:08
Taylor Powell pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 17 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q2 13:49
Zion Williams 19 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick)
+2.7
TD · Q2 0:44
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brooks Buce PAT BLOCKED)
+1.7