Portland State
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2018
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Portland State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Portland State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Portland State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at NEVQ4 6:48 4th & 3 at PRST 46, down 46Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at NEVQ1 8:30 4th & 6 at NEV 46, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at OREQ2 1:23 4th & 9 at ORE 46, down 21Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (24)
- Q1 8:304th & 1 at PRST 48, up 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 8:304th & 6 at NEV 46, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 3:384th & 12 at PRST 23, up 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 14:544th & 7 at PRST 18, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 13:114th & 3 at NEV 49, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 13:114th & 1 at NEV 5, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 8:064th & 9 at PRST 47, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 13:164th & 13 at PRST 37, down 18 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 11:344th & 12 at PRST 23, down 25 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 8:364th & 13 at PRST 3, down 32 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 6:424th & 8 at PRST 17, down 39 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 4:264th & 4 at NEV 48, down 39 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 14:554th & 7 at PRST 38, down 39 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 6:484th & 3 at PRST 46, down 46 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 6:484th & 3 at PRST 32, down 53 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 12:584th & 10 at PRST 47, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 8:334th & 8 at PRST 43, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 3:374th & 17 at PRST 18, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 15:004th & 5 at PRST 25, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:234th & 9 at ORE 46, down 21 · Went for itClose call
- Q3 11:474th & 7 at PRST 28, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 8:034th & 6 at PRST 24, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 1:544th & 21 at midfield, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 5:164th & 23 at PRST 12, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2018
Expected wins adds up Portland State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2018
Every game starts at Portland State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.06
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.02
Game by game
- NEVL 19-72 at NEV3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5
- OREL 14-62 at ORE0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
Points of win probability, from Portland State's side.
Closest call
PRST 24-17 WSU (2015) - Portland State dropped to a 19.1% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2018
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Portland State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2018
The largest single-play change in Portland State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Portland State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Portland State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Portland State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Portland State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.