Portland State
- SRS
- −23.9 (#171)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2024
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Portland State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Portland State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Portland State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at BOISQ2 8:55 4th & 2 at PRST 28, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at BOISQ4 7:49 4th & 4 at PRST 30, down 35Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at WSUQ4 0:30 4th & 1 at PRST 42, down 40Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (21)
- Q1 7:544th & 4 at PRST 31, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 3:154th & 15 at PRST 20, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 14:554th & 10 at WSU 26, down 15 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 11:504th & 8 at PRST 27, down 19 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:364th & 4 at WSU 4, down 26 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 1:394th & 13 at PRST 22, down 32 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 12:454th & 10 at PRST 36, down 32 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 10:344th & 10 at PRST 31, down 39 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 3:004th & 14 at WSU 41, down 40 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 11:214th & 2 at PRST 33, down 47 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 4:354th & 4 at WSU 4, down 47 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 0:304th & 1 at PRST 42, down 40 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 12:284th & 10 at PRST 25, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:444th & 13 at BOIS 15, tied · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 12:454th & 9 at PRST 28, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:554th & 2 at PRST 28, down 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 2:584th & 19 at PRST 9, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 9:594th & 9 at BOIS 20, down 21 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 6:474th & 9 at PRST 33, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 7:494th & 4 at PRST 30, down 35 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 5:204th & 15 at PRST 39, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2024
Expected wins adds up Portland State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2024
Every game starts at Portland State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.09
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
- WSUL 30-70 at WSU4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −7
- BOISL 14-56 at BOIS1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
Points of win probability, from Portland State's side.
Closest call
PRST 24-17 WSU (2015) - Portland State dropped to a 19.1% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2024
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Portland State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2024
The largest single-play change in Portland State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Portland State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Portland State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Portland State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Portland State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.