North Alabama
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2020
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what North Alabama allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for North Alabama.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than North Alabama's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at USMQ1 2:25 4th & 2 at USM 45, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
- at USMQ2 12:40 4th & 2 at USM 12, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
- at USMQ1 9:49 4th & 2 at UNA 48, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at BYUQ1 12:08 4th & 6 at BYU 42, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at LIBQ1 12:34 4th & 2 at UNA 25, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at BYUQ4 7:37 4th & 2 at UNA 28, down 42Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at BYUQ2 0:00 4th & 8 at BYU 43, down 35Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts
- at BYUQ3 3:34 4th & 11 at BYU 38, down 42Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (21)
- Q1 12:344th & 2 at UNA 25, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q1 3:534th & 7 at LIB 47, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 14:044th & 23 at UNA 19, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:004th & 14 at LIB 34, down 7 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 11:264th & 14 at UNA 21, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 7:264th & 17 at LIB 17, down 28 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 12:334th & 14 at UNA 19, up 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 9:494th & 2 at UNA 48, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 2:254th & 2 at USM 45, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 12:404th & 2 at USM 12, up 7 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 7:194th & 17 at UNA 18, up 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 15:004th & 20 at UNA 40, up 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 2:454th & 5 at USM 5, up 3 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 12:084th & 9 at UNA 31, down 1 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 12:084th & 6 at BYU 42, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q1 7:314th & 15 at UNA 43, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:364th & 10 at UNA 47, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 7:504th & 3 at BYU 39, down 21 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 0:004th & 8 at BYU 43, down 35 · Went for itClose call
- Q3 3:344th & 11 at BYU 38, down 42 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 7:374th & 2 at UNA 28, down 42 · PuntedClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2020
Expected wins adds up North Alabama's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2020
Every game starts at North Alabama's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.24
- Timeouts−0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.12
Game by game
- LIBL 7-28 at LIB3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −6
- USML 13-24 at USM13% → 3%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −18, Timeouts −1
- BYUL 14-66 at BYU0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
Points of win probability, from North Alabama's side.
Season arc, 2020
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is North Alabama's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2020
The largest single-play change in North Alabama's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
North Alabama's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
North Alabama's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
North Alabama's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
North Alabama's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.