Norfolk State

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Norfolk State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

1. L
   RUTG
2. L
   ODU
3. L
   MRSH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Norfolk State.

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Norfolk State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at RUTGQ1 4:09 4th & 1 at RUTG 42, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
2. at ODUQ4 13:15 4th & 10 at ODU 40, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
3. at RUTGQ4 14:32 4th & 4 at RUTG 41, down 43Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
4. at MRSHQ3 7:59 4th & 3 at NORF 45, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
5. at MRSHQ2 15:00 4th & 3 at NORF 30, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
6. at ODUQ3 3:24 4th & 3 at NORF 25, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
7. at MRSHQ2 4:48 4th & 20 at MRSH 39, down 17Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
8. at MRSHQ1 2:47 4th & 2 at NORF 11, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

Expected wins adds up Norfolk State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   RUTG
2. L

   ODU
3. L

   MRSH

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at Norfolk State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.36
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.11

Game by game

• RUTGL 13-63 at RUTG23% → 0%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −25
• ODUL 10-24 at ODU4% → 2%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −9, Timeouts −1
• MRSHL 7-45 at MRSH1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2

Points of win probability, from Norfolk State's side.