2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · High Point Solutions Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadNORF aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreNORF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:26 · Eric Pittman run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:37: Hayden Rettig run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +4.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:20: Josh Hicks run for 25 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +5.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:37: Greg Hankerson pass complete to Torian Henderson for 29 yds for a TD, (Cameron Marouf PAT MISSED) — NORF win probability +5.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NORF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:49: Bo Lomax kickoff for 45 yds , Janarion Grant return for 80 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +5.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NORF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:58: Leonte Carroo 55 Yd pass from Chris Laviano (Kyle Federico Kick) — RUTG win probability +7.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NORF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 9:00NORF 4th & 9 at NORF 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snapGo for it48.6%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.9%average punt
- Q1 7:35RUTG 4th & 1 at NORF 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt51.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 4:09NORF 4th & 1 at RUTG 42, tiedClose callPunted · 49.0% before the snapGo for it49.1%70% to convertField goal48.1%−1.030% to makePuntTheir call48.3%−0.8average punt
- Q1 3:40RUTG 4th & 8 at NORF 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snapGo for it51.7%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00NORF 4th & 7 at NORF 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snapGo for it47.3%−0.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.8%average punt
- Q2 10:46RUTG 4th & 1 at NORF 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.9%70% to convertField goal52.5%−1.440% to makePunt52.4%−1.4average punt
- Q2 7:37RUTG 4th & 1 at NORF 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.7%67% to convertField goal52.5%−2.292% to makePunt47.2%−7.5average punt
- Q2 7:37NORF 4th & 12 at NORF 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it34.6%−1.621% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.2%average punt
- Q3 14:49NORF 4th & 15 at NORF 23, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snapGo for it19.7%−2.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.1%average punt
- Q3 7:09NORF 4th & 16 at NORF 19, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 3:11NORF 4th & 11 at NORF 24, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 14:32NORF 4th & 4 at RUTG 41, down 43Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%48% to convertField goal0.1%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:04NORF 4th & 11 at NORF 21, down 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NORF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:23NORF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.1%97% to makeGo for two50.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:00RUTG Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.1%97% to makeGo for two51.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:37RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.1%97% to makeGo for two61.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:20RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.3%97% to makeGo for two73.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:37NORF Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call33.2%97% to makeGo for two33.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:49RUTG Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.1%97% to makeGo for two79.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:58RUTG Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:09RUTG Touchdown, up 28 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick99.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:11RUTG Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:32RUTG Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:04RUTG Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNORFDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3723% → 24%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+32
77.1%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to DeAndre Sangster for 32 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
77.1%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to DeAndre Sangster for 27 yds to the Rutgr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
76.2%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to DeAndre Sangster for 16 yds for a TD, (Cameron Marouf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2TD9 plays · 65 yds · 4:2376% → 76%
NORFDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q1 7:35
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+6
75.4%
Hayden Rettig pass complete to Nick Arcidiacono for 6 yds to the NflkS 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2226% → 26%
RUTGDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
74.5%
Hayden Rettig pass complete to Andre Patton for 18 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-10
75.2%
Rettig, Hayden pass complete to Grant, Janarion for 33 yards to the NSU15 (CHANDLER,Aaron), PENALTY RU holding (Nelson, Derrick) 10 yards to the RU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 23
OWN 37
+15
74.3%
Hayden Rettig pass complete to Justin Goodwin for 15 yds to the NflkS 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3827% → 26%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.1%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Gerard Johnson for 1 yd to the NflkS 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8TD14 plays · 60 yds · 6:3375% → 78%
Q2 11:37
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+5
73.7%
Hayden Rettig pass complete to Andre Patton for 5 yds to the NflkS 37Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+12
72.6%
Hayden Rettig pass complete to Sam Bergen for 12 yds to the NflkS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
74.1%
Hayden Rettig pass complete to Matt Flanagan for 11 yds to the NflkS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 9PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+3
78.0%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Marcus Taylor for 3 yds to the NflkS 16Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 5
OWN 16
-12
78.4%
Greg Hankerson sacked by Andre Hunt for a loss of 12 yards to the NflkS 4Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 17
OWN 4
+5
79.1%
LOMAX,Bo punt 34 yards to the NSU38, downed, PENALTY RU roughing the kicker (Cioffi, Anthony) 5 yards to the NSU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 12
OWN 9
+8
79.1%
Bo Lomax punt for 31 yds , Janarion Grant returns for 8 yds to the NflkS 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10TD2 plays · 32 yds · 0:4680% → 85%
NORFDrive 11TD11 plays · 78 yds · 2:4318% → 23%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
81.6%
JOHNSON,Gerard rush for 3 yards to the NSU25 (Longa, Steve), PENALTY NSU illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY RU offside defense off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
85.0%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to B.J. Reid for 9 yds to the NflkS 31 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, roughing passer (Djwany Mera) to the NflkS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
84.6%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Marcus Taylor for 4 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+9
84.2%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to DeAndre Sangster for 9 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
83.6%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to DeAndre Sangster for 11 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
82.6%
Greg Hankerson pass incomplete to DeAndre Sangster, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
77.1%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Torian Henderson for 29 yds for a TD, (Cameron Marouf PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
80.6%
Rettig, Hayden pass complete to James, Paul for 11 yards to the RU37 (PARKER,Leroy), PENALTY RU illegal formation 5 yards to the RU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+6
80.4%
Hayden Rettig pass complete to Janarion Grant for 6 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 6 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 14:49
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+8
86.8%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to James Church for 8 yds to the NflkS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
86.6%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Demetreus Ferebee for 8 yds to the NflkS 36Similar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-8
86.0%
Greg Hankerson sacked by Quentin Gause for a loss of 8 yards to the NflkS 28Similar
Q3 14:49
4TH & 10
OWN 28
-5
87.0%
LOMAX,Bo punt 40 yards to the RU32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NSU illegal motion (LOMAX,Bo) 5 yards to the NSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15TD2 plays · 64 yds · 0:3789% → 96%
NORFDrive 16INT6 plays · 26 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 10:58
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+6
95.3%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to DeAndre Sangster for 6 yds to the NflkS 28Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+15
95.2%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to James Church for 15 yds to the NflkS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
94.9%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Conley Smith for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 3
50
+5
94.6%
James Church pass intercepted Anthony Cioffi return for 5 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD3 plays · 67 yds · 1:0796% → 100%
NORFDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
RUTGDrive 19TD7 plays · 50 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.6%
James, Paul rush for no gain to the NSU39, fumble forced by BRANTLEY,Walter, fumble by James, Paul recovered by RU Lumpkin, Keith at NSU39, PENALTY NSU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the NSU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 18 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
99.7%
Gerard Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NflkS 24 Gerard Johnson fumbled, recovered by NflkS Gerard JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.7%
Greg Hankerson pass incomplete to Gerard Johnson, broken up by Julian Pinnix-OdrickSimilar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+10
99.7%
Bo Lomax punt for 25 yds NORFOLK ST Penalty, kick catching interference (D'Metrius Williams) to the NflkS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21TD5 plays · 34 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
99.8%
Josh Hicks run for 15 yds to the NflkS 5 for a 1ST down NORFOLK ST Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (3 Yards) to the NflkS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
HANKERSON,Greg sacked for loss of 2 yards to the NSU22 (Bateky, Jon), PENALTY RU offside defense (Hogan, Jimmy) 5 yards to the NSU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Eric Pittman for 5 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q4 14:32
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+5
99.8%
Bo Lomax punt for 26 yds , Janarion Grant returns for 5 yds to the Rutgr 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:56100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:04
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+2
100.0%
Eric Pittman run for 2 yds to the NflkS 23 Eric Pittman run for 2 yds to the NflkS 23Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-2
100.0%
Malik Stokes sacked by Jimmy Hogan for a loss of 2 yards to the NflkS 21Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Bo Lomax punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25FUMBLE3 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+45
100.0%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 21 Robert Martin fumbled, forced by T.C. Livingston, recovered by NflkS Sandy Chapman , return for 45 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · -11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:26
3RD & 12
OPP 23
-5
100.0%
NORFOLK ST Penalty, delay of game (Malik Stokes) to the Rutgr 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:58
Leonte Carroo 55 Yd pass from Chris Laviano (Kyle Federico Kick)
+7.2
TD · Q2 1:37
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Torian Henderson for 29 yds for a TD, (Cameron Marouf PAT MISSED)
-5.5
TD · Q3 14:49
Bo Lomax kickoff for 45 yds , Janarion Grant return for 80 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
+5.5