Nicholls
- SRS
- −47.2 (#255)
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2026
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Nicholls allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Nicholls.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Nicholls's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at KSUQ1 0:29 4th & 1 at NICH 15, down 15Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at SHSUQ4 10:41 4th & 1 at NICH 42, down 52Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at KSUQ2 6:43 4th & 9 at KSU 29, down 29Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (23)
- Q1 11:034th & 8 at NICH 27, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 6:074th & 10 at NICH 25, down 15 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 0:294th & 1 at NICH 15, down 15 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 14:444th & 4 at NICH 41, down 22 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 13:324th & 12 at NICH 45, down 22 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 6:434th & 9 at KSU 29, down 29 · Went for itClose call
- Q2 5:484th & 8 at KSU 15, down 29 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 12:174th & 11 at NICH 36, down 33 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 4:284th & 10 at NICH 25, down 47 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 0:364th & 23 at NICH 12, down 54 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 11:194th & 6 at NICH 29, down 61 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:024th & 9 at NICH 47, down 68 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 12:114th & 16 at NICH 30, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 10:244th & 10 at NICH 45, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:364th & 17 at SHSU 46, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 13:584th & 9 at NICH 32, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 9:154th & 15 at NICH 47, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 5:284th & 3 at NICH 32, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:204th & 6 at NICH 41, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 13:104th & 5 at NICH 30, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 3:464th & 4 at NICH 41, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 1:164th & 5 at NICH 30, down 52 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 10:414th & 1 at NICH 42, down 52 · PuntedClose call
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2026
Expected wins adds up Nicholls's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2026
Every game starts at Nicholls's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.12
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
- KSUL 3-71 at KSU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
- SHSUL 0-59 at SHSU8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −10
Points of win probability, from Nicholls's side.
Closest call
NICH 26-23 KU (2018) - Nicholls dropped to a 19.9% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2026
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Nicholls's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2026
The largest single-play change in Nicholls's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Nicholls's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Nicholls's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Nicholls's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Nicholls's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.