Long Island University
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2021
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Long Island University allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Long Island University.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Long Island University's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at FIUQ3 12:03 4th & 4 at LIU 38, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
- at FIUQ2 7:03 4th & 7 at FIU 46, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at M-OHQ3 5:11 4th & 17 at M-OH 37, down 21Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at WVUQ1 4:25 4th & 3 at LIU 20, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (30)
- Q1 13:554th & 7 at FIU 32, up 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 3:104th & 4 at LIU 32, up 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 0:434th & 6 at LIU 25, up 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 7:034th & 7 at FIU 46, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 12:034th & 4 at LIU 38, up 10 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 6:574th & 12 at LIU 24, up 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 9:234th & 7 at LIU 16, up 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 4:584th & 11 at LIU 14, up 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 11:254th & 5 at LIU 43, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 4:254th & 3 at LIU 20, down 21 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 14:104th & 15 at LIU 30, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 6:534th & 8 at LIU 27, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:324th & 5 at WVU 8, down 42 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 13:524th & 12 at LIU 33, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 9:044th & 12 at LIU 23, down 59 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 4:334th & 5 at LIU 30, down 66 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 13:404th & 12 at LIU 13, down 66 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 6:434th & 11 at LIU 1, down 66 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 3:434th & 11 at LIU 19, down 73 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 8:004th & 19 at LIU 36, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 5:054th & 13 at M-OH 48, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 14:174th & 4 at M-OH 40, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 6:394th & 2 at M-OH 2, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 1:584th & 17 at LIU 45, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 13:294th & 7 at LIU 28, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 7:134th & 2 at M-OH 33, down 21 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 5:114th & 17 at M-OH 37, down 21 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 14:544th & 10 at LIU 37, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 7:564th & 3 at LIU 22, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 3:374th & 3 at LIU 8, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2021
Expected wins adds up Long Island University's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2021
Every game starts at Long Island University's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard+0.28
- Possession & field position−0.02
- Clock+0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.48
Game by game
- FIUL 10-48 at FIU2% → 78%Before kickoff −48 · On the field +76: Scoreboard +32, Possession & field position −2
- WVUL 0-66 at WVU0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
- M-OHL 7-42 at M-OH1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
Points of win probability, from Long Island University's side.
Closest call
LIU 28-23 EMU (2025) - Long Island University dropped to a 8.0% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2021
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Long Island University's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2021
The largest single-play change in Long Island University's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Long Island University's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Long Island University's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Long Island University's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Long Island University's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.