2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Milan Puskar Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadLIU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreLIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:43 · Paul Inzerillo punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Graeson Malashevich at the LongIsl 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:18: Leddie Brown run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:00: LONG ISLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Victor Nelson) to the LongIsl 39 for a 1ST down — WVU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:58: Garrett Greene run for 3 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — LIU win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:07: Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 18 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5LIU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 11:25LIU 4th & 5 at LIU 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 11:25WVU 4th & 9 at LIU 44, up 14Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%−<0.132% to convertField goal99.4%−0.127% to makePunt99.5%average punt
- Q1 4:25LIU 4th & 3 at LIU 20, down 21Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:10LIU 4th & 15 at LIU 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 14:10WVU 4th & 7 at LIU 41, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%37% to convertField goal99.6%−0.132% to makePunt99.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:53LIU 4th & 8 at LIU 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 6:53WVU 4th & 13 at LIU 42, up 35Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%−<0.121% to convertField goal99.7%−<0.130% to makePunt99.7%average punt
- Q2 6:53WVU 4th & 2 at LIU 12, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%56% to convertField goal99.6%−0.186% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:32LIU 4th & 5 at WVU 8, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%90% to makePunt-0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 13:52LIU 4th & 12 at LIU 33, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 9:04LIU 4th & 12 at LIU 23, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:33LIU 4th & 5 at LIU 30, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:40LIU 4th & 12 at LIU 13, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:46WVU 4th & 1 at LIU 2, up 66Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%60% to convertField goal99.8%−0.294% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 6:43LIU 4th & 11 at LIU 1, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 3:43LIU 4th & 11 at LIU 19, down 73Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−<0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 6:16WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:18WVU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:58WVU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:07WVU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:34WVU Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:16WVU Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:59WVU Touchdown, up 65 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:25WVU Touchdown, up 72 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLIUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 3:211% → 1%
Q1 14:46
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+15
99.5%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LongIsl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-4
99.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to Derick Eugene for a loss of 4 yards to the LongIsl 38Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to Steven Chambers for 5 yds to the LongIsl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2TD14 plays · 80 yds · 5:09100% → 99%
Q1 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+18
99.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 18 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
99.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 6 yds to the LongIsl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+21
99.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 21 yds to the LongIsl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 15
OPP 28
0
99.5%
Jarret Doege sacked by Matthew Molina for 0 yards to the LongIsl 32Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+29
99.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 29 yds to the LongIsl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:471% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4TD7 plays · 39 yds · 4:2599% → 100%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+27
99.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 27 yds to the LongIsl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
99.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 7 yds to the LongIsl 5Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.6%
LONG ISLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Victor Nelson) to the LongIsl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q1 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 9 yds to the LongIsl 34Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Derick Eugene for no gain to the LongIsl 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.6%
ORTH, Camden pass to the right complete for 8 yards to CHAMBERS, Steven caught at the LIU43 and advanced to the LIU43, out of bounds. PENALTY LIU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on AMATO, Greg enforced 5 yards from the LIU35 to the LIU30 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Justin Hertlein punt for 39 yds , Isaiah Esdale returns for no gain to the WVirg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6TD14 plays · 69 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
99.6%
JOHNSON JR., Justin rush up the middle for a gain of 13 yards to the LIU31 (SNEAD, Tariq;ELDER, Larry). PENALTY WVU Holding on YATES, Brandon enforced 10 yards from the LIU44 to the WVU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+28
99.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 28 yds to the LongIsl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.7%
ORTH, Camden pass to the left complete for 5 yards to CHAMBERS, Steven caught at the LIU29 and advanced to the LIU30 (WOODS, Charles). PENALTY LIU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on OYEKANMI, Tosin enforced 5 yards from the LIU25 to the LIU20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8TD14 plays · 56 yds · 3:46100% → 100%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
99.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 17 yds to the LongIsl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 13
OPP 42
+22
99.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 22 yds to the LongIsl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 7 yds to the LongIsl 13Similar
Q2 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.7%
Jarret Doege sacked by Anthony Lavio for 0 yards to the LongIsl 18Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
99.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 18 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 9MISSED FG13 plays · 65 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.8%
Camden Orth pass complete to Jonathan DeBique for 5 yds to the LongIsl 32Similar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.8%
Camden Orth pass complete to Derick Eugene for 5 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+9
99.8%
Camden Orth pass complete to Davon Wells for 9 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+15
99.8%
ORTH, Camden sacked for a loss of 0 yards at the LIU45 (ALSTON, Taijh). PENALTY WVU Face mask on ALSTON, Taijh enforced 15 yards from the LIU45 to the WVU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
99.8%
Camden Orth pass complete to Steven Chambers for 13 yds to the WVirg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 18
OPP 21
+13
99.8%
Camden Orth pass complete to Derick Eugene for 13 yds to the WVirg 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10FG6 plays · 53 yds · 0:32100% → 100%
LIUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:030% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12TD3 plays · 49 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 39 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 13FUMBLE2 plays · -4 yds · 0:190% → 0%
WVUDrive 14TD5 plays · 26 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
LIUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 2:120% → 0%
WVUDrive 16TD8 plays · 54 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q3 9:04
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+23
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kaden Prather for 23 yds to the LongIsl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Sam Brown for no gain to the LongIsl 32Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+16
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Sam Brown for 16 yds to the LongIsl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q3 4:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Paul Inzerillo punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Graeson Malashevich at the WVirg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18FUMBLE8 plays · 49 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q3 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-9
99.9%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the LongIsl 15 fumbled, recovered by LongIsl Qualil LumpkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 13
0
100.0%
Camden Orth sacked by Darel Middleton for 0 yards to the LongIsl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 32 yds · 4:54100% → 100%
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
100.0%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the LongIsl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q4 6:43
4TH & 11
OWN 1
+10
100.0%
Paul Inzerillo punt for 38 yds , Graeson Malashevich returns for 10 yds to the LongIsl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22TD3 plays · 29 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
LIUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 3:43
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Paul Inzerillo punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Graeson Malashevich at the LongIsl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 1:23
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
100.0%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Illegal Formation on CROWDER, Will ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER4 plays · 44 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 1:23
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+15
100.0%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Targeting on COLEMAN, Caleb enforced (Caleb Coleman) to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
100.0%
run for 11 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Saint McLeod) to the WVirg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:18
Leddie Brown run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 0:00
LONG ISLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Victor Nelson) to the LongIsl 39 for a 1ST down
+0.1
TD · Q2 8:58
Garrett Greene run for 3 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)
-0.1