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LIU

Long Island University 10 at Florida International 48

FIU
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2021 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadLIU aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreLIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:58 · punt for 51 yds, downed at the FlaIn 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:01: pass complete to for 31 yds to the FlaIn 24 for a 1ST down — LIU win probability +4.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: LIU has the ball).
  2. SACK · Q3 0:00: sacked for 0 yards to the LongIsl 43 — LIU win probability +22.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: LIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:06: pass complete to for 12 yds for a TD ( KICK) — LIU win probability +5.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  4. PUNT · Q4 9:23: punt for 28 yds , Richard Dames returns for 4 yds to the LongIsl 40 — LIU win probability +14.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LIU has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q4 4:58: punt for 51 yds, downed at the FlaIn 35 — LIU win probability +9.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1LIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:55LIU 4th & 7 at FIU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:10LIU 4th & 4 at LIU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:43LIU 4th & 6 at LIU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:45FIU 4th & 4 at LIU 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:03LIU 4th & 7 at FIU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:03LIU 4th & 4 at LIU 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:57LIU 4th & 12 at LIU 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:23LIU 4th & 7 at LIU 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−2.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:58LIU 4th & 11 at LIU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−5.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIUDrive 2MISSED FG
7 plays · 58 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.7%
pass complete to for 7 yds to the LongIsl 32Similar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
97.7%
pass complete to for 11 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
97.7%
pass complete to for 7 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-2
97.7%
pass complete to for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+14
97.7%
pass complete to for 14 yds to the FlaIn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
97.7%
run for no gain to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
97.7%
pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 3PUNT
2 plays · 6 yds · 1:405% → 5%
Q1 4:50
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
95.5%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
95.0%
punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 4PUNT
1 play · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 0:43
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+3
94.1%
punt for 33 yds , Bryce Singleton returns for 3 yds to the FlaIn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5PUNT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:1594% → 94%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
94.0%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
93.7%
punt for 48 yds, downed at the LongIsl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 6PUNT
2 plays · 53 yds · 6:108% → 12%
Q2 13:13
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+1
92.4%
pass complete to for 1 yd to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
88.0%
punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 7TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 3:59
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+74
86.0%
pass complete to for 74 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 9FG
3 plays · 12 yds · 2:1919% → 23%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
81.2%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
81.2%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+31
77.0%
pass complete to for 31 yds to the FlaIn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 11PUNT
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 12:03
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
73.1%
punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 10:01
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+52
71.1%
pass complete to for 52 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 13PUNT
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 6:57
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
65.3%
punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 14PUNT
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:2058% → 54%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
42.4%
sacked for 0 yards to the LongIsl 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
45.0%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 14
OWN 43
+10
46.5%
#36 J.Hertlein punt 33 yards to the FIU24, #4 R.Dames return 24 yards to the FIU48 (#56 M.Palmaccio). PENALTY FIU Holding enforced 10 yards from the FIU37 to the FIU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
41.1%
pass complete to for 12 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 16PUNT
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q4 9:23
4TH & 7
OWN 16
+4
27.1%
punt for 28 yds , Richard Dames returns for 4 yds to the LongIsl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17FG
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 18
OPP 37
0
29.4%
pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 18PUNT
2 plays · -1 yds · 2:2869% → 78%
Q4 7:26
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-2
31.4%
pass complete to for a loss of 2 yards to the LongIsl 14Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
21.6%
punt for 51 yds, downed at the FlaIn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+78.4
SACK · Q3 0:00
sacked for 0 yards to the LongIsl 43
-22.8
PUNT · Q4 9:23
punt for 28 yds , Richard Dames returns for 4 yds to the LongIsl 40
-14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com