Chattanooga
- SRS
- −20.7 (#150)
Next game
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2024
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Chattanooga allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Chattanooga.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Chattanooga's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at TENNQ2 12:09 4th & 2 at UTC 47, down 31Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at TENNQ3 2:46 4th & 5 at TENN 37, down 45Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at GASTQ1 13:05 4th & 2 at UTC 33, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (20)
- Q1 7:444th & 4 at UTC 31, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 6:004th & 7 at UTC 28, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 6:004th & 7 at UTC 28, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:024th & 7 at UTC 28, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:094th & 2 at UTC 47, down 31 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 6:594th & 4 at UTC 41, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 3:484th & 11 at UTC 36, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:464th & 18 at UTC 35, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 10:104th & 18 at TENN 25, down 45 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 2:464th & 5 at TENN 37, down 45 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q3 0:134th & 7 at UTC 28, down 52 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 11:114th & 7 at TENN 7, down 52 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 1:074th & 1 at UTC 49, down 59 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 13:054th & 2 at UTC 33, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q1 1:274th & 1 at GAST 1, down 3 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 10:464th & 13 at UTC 17, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:284th & 6 at UTC 42, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 4:384th & 12 at GAST 48, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 0:494th & 10 at UTC 13, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 5:114th & 16 at UTC 29, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2024
Expected wins adds up Chattanooga's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2024
Every game starts at Chattanooga's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.27
- Timeouts−0.02
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.08
Game by game
- TENNL 3-69 at TENN2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
- GASTL 21-24 at GAST24% → 4%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −24, Timeouts −2
Points of win probability, from Chattanooga's side.
Season arc, 2024
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Chattanooga's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2024
The largest single-play change in Chattanooga's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Chattanooga's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Chattanooga's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Chattanooga's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Not enough game history yet to compute a stock price.
Series & rivalries
Chattanooga's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.