2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadUTC aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreUTC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:38 · Jude Kelley punt for 48 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore differential
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 10:56: Reggie Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Jude Kelley KICK) — UTC win probability +12.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UTC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:35: Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 22 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +11.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:33: Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Sam Phillips for 84 yds for a TD (Jude Kelley KICK) — UTC win probability +31.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UTC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:01: Freddie Brock 12 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick) — GAST win probability +24.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:54: Timeout Chattanooga, clock 00:54 — GAST win probability +22.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UTC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 13:05UTC 4th & 2 at UTC 33, tiedClose callPunted · 25.7% before the snapGo for it25.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:39GAST 4th & 18 at GAST 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snapGo for it73.6%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.8%average punt
- Q1 7:16GAST 4th & 8 at UTC 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.1% before the snapGo for it73.0%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call73.1%64% to makePunt72.4%−0.7average punt
- Q1 1:27UTC 4th & 1 at GAST 1, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.6%59% to convertField goal26.7%−0.994% to makePunt24.3%−3.3average punt
- Q2 10:46UTC 4th & 13 at UTC 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snapGo for it25.8%−1.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.9%average punt
- Q2 9:45GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 27, up 3Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snapGo for it70.5%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:28UTC 4th & 6 at UTC 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snapGo for it28.5%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.1%average punt
- Q2 4:09GAST 4th & 10 at UTC 22, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snapGo for it70.4%−0.828% to convertField goalTheir call71.2%72% to makePunt66.9%−4.3average punt
- Q2 1:02GAST 4th & 1 at UTC 27, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.9%71% to convertField goal71.0%−0.962% to makePunt67.1%−4.7average punt
- Q3 4:38UTC 4th & 12 at GAST 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it29.5%−2.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q3 2:49GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 38, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 69.0% before the snapGo for it70.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.6%−1.4average punt
- Q3 0:49UTC 4th & 10 at UTC 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snapGo for it25.5%−3.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.5%average punt
- Q4 14:09GAST 4th & 4 at UTC 43, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 73.8% before the snapGo for it74.9%48% to convertField goal71.4%−3.528% to makePuntTheir call72.9%−2.0average punt
- Q4 5:11UTC 4th & 16 at UTC 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snapGo for it21.5%−3.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q4 1:30GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 46, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snapGo for it82.4%−2.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 1:27UTC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.7%97% to makeGo for two30.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:31GAST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.3%97% to makeGo for two72.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:56UTC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.6%97% to makeGo for two43.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:35GAST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.9%97% to makeGo for two69.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:33UTC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.1%97% to makeGo for two54.7%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 7:01GAST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.7%97% to makeGo for two68.8%−0.945% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTCDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5524% → 25%
Q1 13:05
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
75.2%
Heath Jehu punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GAST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2675% → 75%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
75.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 3 yds to the GAST 25Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-6
75.2%
BROCK, Freddie rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the GSU31 (SMALLWOOD, Taylor;MITCHELL, Alex). PENALTY GSU Face mask on HURST, Ted enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the GSU25 to the GSU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 19
OWN 13
+1
75.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Freddie Brock for 1 yd to the GAST 14Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 18
OWN 14
0
74.7%
James Allen punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Sam Phillips at the UTC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 3INT4 plays · 11 yds · 1:1625% → 26%
GASTDrive 4FG8 plays · 25 yds · 3:0775% → 75%
UTCDrive 5TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4925% → 31%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.6%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Sam Phillips for 7 yds to the UTC 32Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+34
73.9%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Sam Phillips for 34 yds to the GAST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.3%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Dalton Restelli for 1 yd for a TD (Jude Kelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD9 plays · 64 yds · 3:5670% → 74%
Q1 1:27
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+17
69.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 17 yds to the UTC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
70.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 7 yds to the UTC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+11
71.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 11 yds to the UTC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
74.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Jordan Ford for 19 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5527% → 26%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
72.6%
WYCHE, Journey rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the UTC28, End of Play. PENALTY UTC Holding enforced 10 yards from the UTC20 to the UTC10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0172% → 71%
Q2 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+6
71.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 6 yds to the GAST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1729% → 28%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
71.4%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Javin Whatley for 8 yds to the UTC 46Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-4
70.7%
Chase Artopoeus sacked by Xavier Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the UTC 42Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
72.3%
Jude Kelley punt for 47 yds , Tailique Williams returns for no gain to the GAST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10MISSED FG12 plays · 67 yds · 5:5573% → 72%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
76.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to DJ Riles for 3 yds to the UTC 19Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+2
76.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Freddie Brock for 2 yds to the UTC 17Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
71.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to DJ Riles for 7 yds to the GAST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 11FUMBLE4 plays · 14 yds · 1:5826% → 26%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
73.9%
DAVIS, Reggie rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the UTC31 (PRINGLE, Gavin). PENALTY UTC Holding on MONNOT III, Dave enforced 10 yards from the UTC22 to the UTC12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+10
74.3%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Sam Phillips for 10 yds to the UTC 24Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+12
74.3%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Sam Phillips for 12 yds Sam Phillips fumbled, recovered by GAST KD McDaniel K. McDaniel return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5874% → 73%
Q2 2:00
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+13
72.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 13 yds to the UTC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 12 yds · 1:0227% → 28%
GASTDrive 14FUMBLE6 plays · 10 yds · 2:3871% → 73%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 5 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
70.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 9 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
72.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to DJ Riles for 6 yds to the GAST 45Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-10
72.8%
Christian Veilleux sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the GAST 10 Christian Veilleux fumbled, recovered by UTC Leroy Harris III , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 15TD4 plays · 10 yds · 1:2634% → 46%
Q3 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
66.1%
ARTOPOEUS, Chase pass up the middle incomplete intended for PHILLIPS, Sam thrown to the GSU0. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on PRINGLE, Gavin enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the GSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2158% → 75%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to DJ Riles for 7 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
57.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 13 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
61.9%
WILKERSON, Sy'veon rush up the middle for no gain to the UTC47 (GAINES, Jaden). PENALTY UTC Offsides on GAINES, Jaden enforced 5 yards from the UTC47 to the UTC42 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
61.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 19 yds to the UTC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
75.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 22 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 2:5730% → 30%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
70.0%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Sam Phillips for 14 yds to the UTC 34Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
68.3%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Chris Domercant for 14 yds to the GAST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 7
OPP 43
-5
68.9%
KELLEY, Jude punt 38 yards to the GSU5 out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, UTC Illegal Formation on DICKSON, Amanuel enforced 5 yards from the GSU43 to the GSU48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4970% → 69%
Q3 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
70.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 7 yds to the GAST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0029% → 27%
GASTDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5174% → 74%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 21TD5 plays · 98 yds · 2:3628% → 60%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
71.8%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Javin Whatley for 8 yds to the UTC 10Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 2
OWN 10
-5
71.4%
DAVIS, Reggie rush to the right for a gain of 10 yards to the UTC20 (WATSON, Kenyatta). PENALTY Before the snap, UTC Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the UTC10 to the UTC5. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+8
72.2%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Sam Phillips for 8 yds to the UTC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+84
39.8%
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Sam Phillips for 84 yds for a TD (Jude Kelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22TD10 plays · 59 yds · 4:3249% → 77%
Q4 11:33
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-10
49.9%
BROCK, Freddie rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the UTC47 (BROWN, Kameron). PENALTY GSU Holding on CHUKWUMA, Ben enforced 10 yards from the GSU49 to the GSU39 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+5
46.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Tailique Williams for 5 yds to the GAST 44Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+8
47.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 8 yds to the UTC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
50.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Tailique Williams for 16 yds to the UTC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
52.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 10 yds to the UTC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
52.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 8 yds to the UTC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5033% → 26%
Q4 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-6
69.8%
Chase Artopoeus sacked by Justin Abraham for a loss of 6 yards to the UTC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24PUNT11 plays · 23 yds · 3:4175% → 87%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
78.1%
WILKERSON, Sy'veon rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the UTC48 (MYERS, Ethan). PENALTY GSU Holding on TIMMONS, Trevor enforced 10 yards from the GSU46 to the GSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+5
86.8%
VEILLEUX, Christian pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for HURST, Ted thrown to the UTC34. PENALTY UTC Offsides on HARRIS III, Leroy enforced 5 yards from the GSU39 to the GSU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+15
86.6%
James Allen punt for 45 yds , Sam Phillips returns for 15 yds to the UTC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 25INT2 plays · 26 yds · 0:3224% → 30%
GASTDrive 26END OF GAME6 plays · 10 yds · 0:5493% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:33
Chase Artopoeus pass complete to Sam Phillips for 84 yds for a TD (Jude Kelley KICK)
-31.5
TD · Q4 7:01
Freddie Brock 12 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)
+24.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:54
Timeout Chattanooga, clock 00:54
+22.9