Alabama A&M
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2016
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Alabama A&M allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Alabama A&M.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2016
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Alabama A&M's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at AUBQ2 8:55 4th & 1 at midfield, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at MTSUQ3 3:01 4th & 2 at AAMU 30, down 45Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at MTSUQ3 6:08 4th & 8 at MTSU 38, down 45Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at MTSUQ1 1:54 4th & 8 at MTSU 42, down 28Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (26)
- Q1 13:424th & 8 at MTSU 45, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 9:124th & 5 at AAMU 28, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 4:274th & 8 at AAMU 22, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:544th & 8 at MTSU 42, down 28 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 11:334th & 11 at AAMU 24, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 9:314th & 15 at AAMU 20, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:494th & 2 at AAMU 21, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 15:004th & 6 at AAMU 29, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 11:054th & 4 at AAMU 14, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 6:084th & 8 at MTSU 38, down 45 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 3:014th & 2 at AAMU 30, down 45 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 14:204th & 17 at AAMU 18, down 52 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 8:304th & 7 at MTSU 47, down 55 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 9:064th & 5 at AAMU 30, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 4:314th & 17 at AAMU 27, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 0:254th & 12 at AUB 20, down 14 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 14:174th & 9 at AUB 47, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:554th & 1 at midfield, down 14 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 3:514th & 9 at AAMU 26, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 1:104th & 23 at AAMU 12, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 14:544th & 7 at AAMU 17, down 24 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 8:434th & 5 at AAMU 15, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 7:164th & 15 at AAMU 31, down 45 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 0:424th & 3 at AAMU 32, down 48 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 9:444th & 3 at AAMU 22, down 55 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 5:004th & 10 at AAMU 26, down 55 · PuntedAgreed
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2016
Expected wins adds up Alabama A&M's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2016
Every game starts at Alabama A&M's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.02
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.01
Game by game
- MTSUL 0-55 at MTSU0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
- AUBL 0-55 at AUB0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
Points of win probability, from Alabama A&M's side.
Season arc, 2016
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Alabama A&M's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2016
The largest single-play change in Alabama A&M's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Alabama A&M's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Alabama A&M's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Alabama A&M's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Not enough game history yet to compute a stock price.
Series & rivalries
Alabama A&M's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.