Alabama A&M
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2017
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Alabama A&M allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Alabama A&M.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Alabama A&M's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and every call that differed was a close one. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at UABQ2 5:39 4th & 2 at UAB 42, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.6 pts
- at USAQ1 3:21 4th & 3 at USA 37, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at UABQ2 12:01 4th & 3 at AAMU 42, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at UABQ1 7:14 4th & 13 at UAB 33, down 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)0.1 pts
- at USAQ1 6:10 4th & 3 at USA 5, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.1 pts
- at USAQ3 15:00 4th & 4 at USA 45, down 31Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at USAQ4 5:24 4th & 3 at AAMU 19, down 45Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (33)
- AgreedQ1 9:084th & 13 at AAMU 22, down 7, Punted
- Close callQ1 7:144th & 13 at UAB 33, down 7, Punted
- AgreedQ2 15:004th & 1 at UAB 30, down 7, Went for it
- Close callQ2 12:014th & 3 at AAMU 42, down 7, Punted
- Close callQ2 5:394th & 2 at UAB 42, down 7, Punted
- AgreedQ2 0:314th & 7 at AAMU 28, down 3, Punted
- AgreedQ3 14:554th & 9 at AAMU 20, down 3, Punted
- AgreedQ3 10:104th & 17 at AAMU 3, down 3, Punted
- AgreedQ3 5:534th & 7 at AAMU 46, down 17, Punted
- AgreedQ3 1:444th & 7 at UAB 47, down 17, Punted
- AgreedQ4 13:234th & 3 at AAMU 32, down 24, Punted
- AgreedQ4 7:544th & 7 at AAMU 12, down 24, Punted
- AgreedQ4 2:234th & 9 at AAMU 15, down 31, Punted
- AgreedQ1 8:384th & 17 at AAMU 37, down 7, Punted
- AgreedQ1 2:394th & 6 at AAMU 15, down 14, Punted
- AgreedQ2 14:074th & 9 at AAMU 35, down 14, Punted
- AgreedQ2 6:034th & 10 at AAMU 47, down 21, Punted
- AgreedQ2 4:174th & 16 at AAMU 19, down 28, Punted
- AgreedQ3 15:004th & 5 at AAMU 30, down 35, Punted
- AgreedQ3 3:284th & 8 at AAMU 40, down 42, Punted
- AgreedQ4 14:034th & 10 at AAMU 24, down 42, Punted
- AgreedQ4 10:014th & 15 at AAMU 2, down 42, Punted
- AgreedQ4 7:174th & 12 at AAMU 42, down 42, Punted
- AgreedQ1 11:084th & 4 at USA 37, down 3, Went for it
- Close callQ1 6:104th & 3 at USA 5, down 3, Kicked a field goal
- AgreedQ1 6:104th & 6 at AAMU 12, down 10, Punted
- Close callQ1 3:214th & 3 at USA 37, down 24, Punted
- AgreedQ2 12:204th & 7 at AAMU 47, down 24, Punted
- AgreedQ2 5:354th & 9 at AAMU 38, down 24, Punted
- AgreedQ2 0:194th & 11 at USA 47, down 31, Punted
- Close callQ3 15:004th & 4 at USA 45, down 31, Punted
- AgreedQ4 15:004th & 17 at AAMU 46, down 45, Punted
- Close callQ4 5:244th & 3 at AAMU 19, down 45, Punted
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2017
Expected wins adds up Alabama A&M's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2017
Every game starts at Alabama A&M's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.09
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04
Game by game
- UABL 7-38 at UAB4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
- VANL 0-42 at VAN0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
- USAL 0-45 at USA1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
Points of win probability, from Alabama A&M's side.
Season arc, 2017
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Alabama A&M's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2017
The largest single-play change in Alabama A&M's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Alabama A&M's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Alabama A&M's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Alabama A&M's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Not enough game history yet to compute a stock price.
Series & rivalries
Alabama A&M's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.