Abilene Christian
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2017
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Abilene Christian allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Abilene Christian.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Abilene Christian's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at UNMQ4 13:57 4th & 1 at ACU 34, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at UNMQ2 12:50 4th & 7 at UNM 34, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (18)
- Q2 12:504th & 7 at UNM 34, tied · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 9:424th & 5 at ACU 35, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 5:064th & 6 at ACU 20, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 15:004th & 28 at ACU 48, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 2:404th & 10 at ACU 48, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 13:574th & 1 at ACU 34, down 24 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 11:064th & 5 at UNM 5, down 24 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 6:304th & 22 at UNM 42, down 31 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 15:004th & 5 at ACU 30, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 11:394th & 1 at CSU 34, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 1:284th & 6 at ACU 39, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 13:454th & 1 at CSU 1, down 10 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 3:394th & 10 at ACU 35, down 17 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 12:394th & 8 at ACU 21, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 4:144th & 10 at CSU 12, down 17 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 6 at CSU 48, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 11:224th & 6 at CSU 45, down 21 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 5:404th & 17 at CSU 47, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2017
Expected wins adds up Abilene Christian's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2017
Every game starts at Abilene Christian's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.07
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04
Game by game
- UNML 14-38 at UNM2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −5
- CSUL 10-38 at CSU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
Points of win probability, from Abilene Christian's side.
Closest call
ACU 38-35 TROY (2014) - Abilene Christian dropped to a 9.3% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2017
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Abilene Christian's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2017
The largest single-play change in Abilene Christian's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Abilene Christian's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Abilene Christian's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Abilene Christian's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Abilene Christian's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.